Wednesday’s Other Central Bank Meeting Might Be the One to Watch
The Bank of Japan will announce an interest-rate decision on the same day as the Fed, with big consequences
3 min
All eyes will rightly be on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision Wednesday. But the meeting of another central bank across the Pacific will be quite consequential too.
While Jerome Powell is pondering whether to cut rates now for the first time in more than four years or perhaps wait a couple more months, Kazuo Ueda , his counterpart in Japan, is considering whether to do the opposite . After the Bank of Japan exited its negative-interest-rate regime in March, investors are looking for more tightening to come.
The Bank of Japan raised its short-term interest rate from minus 0.1% to a range of around 0% to 0.1% in March, the first increase in 17 years. Japan’s consumer prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in June, which was off from inflation’s peak pace last year, but still well higher than Japan is accustomed to.
In a possible preview of what awaits markets if the Bank of Japan leans hawkish, the Japanese yen has risen sharply in the past few weeks, appreciating 5.2% against the dollar this month from a multi-decade low. That has likely contributed to market turmoil in other markets around the world over the past couple of weeks, including the selloff in global technology stocks, as the yen, with its low interest rates, is a favourite funding currency for traders .
Hedge funds have ramped up their short bets on the yen in the past two years but could exit their positions pretty abruptly. Leveraged funds have slashed their net short position in options and futures against the yen by half in the two weeks ended July 23, according to data from Commodity Futures Trading Commission via CEIC. That is equal to a nominal value of $4.6 billion.
But the market is divided over whether a Japanese rate increase could come as soon as this week. There is a 41% probability that the Bank of Japan could raise rates by 0.15 percentage point, inferred from pricing of overnight indexed swaps, according to Bank of America.
At the meeting this Wednesday, the Bank of Japan is also expected to outline plans to unwind its portfolio of $3.8 trillion in Japanese government bonds, likely giving a further boost to long-term rates. Japan’s 10-year government bond yields have gone up 0.44 percentage point to around 1.06% this year as investors expected higher rates.
The country was swimming against the tide over the past few years by staying put on its ultra-easy monetary policies when most major central banks were raising rates. The Bank of Japan will likely be more cautious going in the opposite direction: A sharply higher yen could be punishing to exporters , and policymakers in Japan live in perpetual fear of returning to deflation. Any surprises in the BOJ’s pace as it normalises policy could still rattle financial markets.
Over the longer term, a narrowing interest-rate differential between the U.S. and Japan could shift the pattern of investment flows. Japan had the equivalent of $4 trillion in foreign portfolio investments at the end of 2023, according to official data. That includes both companies and individuals which are scouring the globe for higher returns. Some of them might bring their money back to Japan if assets at home are generating higher yields, especially if the yen is getting stronger.
U.S. 10-year government bonds still yield around 3.1 percentage points more than Japanese ones, but that is already down from a 4.2-percentage-point gap in October. If that gap keeps narrowing, it could mean tighter financing conditions in markets around the world, which have long looked to Japan as a steady buyer.
It is rare for two of the world’s largest central banks to be at major turning points in their long-term policy settings at the same time, and rarer still for them to be moving in opposite directions. The consequences could be far-ranging and unpredictable. Investors around the world will have to get used to paying more attention to what is happening in Tokyo, not just Washington, D.C.
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With US$40 million already committed, the Global Talent Fund is attracting investor attention with a strategy focused on building globally scalable consumer brands alongside high-profile talent.
2 min
A new investment fund targeting celebrity-founded consumer brands has secured US$40 million in commitments and is rapidly approaching its US$50 million fundraising target, signalling growing investor appetite for alternative opportunities beyond traditional asset classes.
The Global Talent Fund, which has a maximum raise of US$100 million, focuses on building and investing in consumer businesses alongside celebrities, athletes, and influential personalities who play an active role as co-founders rather than simply endorsing products.
The strategy is based on the belief that changes in consumer behaviour, particularly the rise of social media and digital engagement, have fundamentally altered how brands are built and scaled.
GTF founding partner Jeremy Hunt, who is helping lead the fund’s strategy, said consumers increasingly feel connected to personalities they follow online and are more willing to support products developed by those individuals.
“Consumers are searching for content to engage with, and when a celebrity they like or follow takes them on the journey of creating a product or brand, they genuinely feel part of that process,” he said.
The fund is targeting high-growth consumer sectors including wellness, hydration, beauty and recovery, areas Hunt believes continue to benefit from strong global demand and ongoing innovation.
Rather than backing celebrity endorsement deals, the fund is seeking businesses where talent is deeply involved in product development, brand creation and long-term growth.
According to Hunt, authenticity remains one of the biggest differentiators between successful celebrity-backed brands and those that fail.
“The consumer can see clearly if someone is simply being paid to promote a product,” he said. “The winners are typically the brands where the celebrity has genuinely helped build the business from the ground up.”
The model has attracted support from several prominent Australian investors and business families, reflecting broader interest in alternative investments with global growth potential.
Hunt said consumer brands offered a level of tangibility that many investors found appealing.
“Consumer brands are what we touch, feel, smell and taste every day,” he said. “Our investors understand the growth potential in the model, but they also want to be part of the journey.”
The fund’s rapid progress towards its fundraising target comes amid growing recognition that celebrity influence, when combined with strong commercial execution and scalable business models, can create significant enterprise value.
With several high-profile celebrity-founded businesses generating billion-dollar exits in recent years, supporters of the strategy believe the opportunity remains in its early stages.
For more information, contact marc@kanebridge.com.au
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