Wednesday’s Other Central Bank Meeting Might Be the One to Watch
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Wednesday’s Other Central Bank Meeting Might Be the One to Watch

The Bank of Japan will announce an interest-rate decision on the same day as the Fed, with big consequences

By JACKY WONG
Wed, Jul 31, 2024 8:44amGrey Clock 3 min

All eyes will rightly be on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision Wednesday. But the meeting of another central bank across the Pacific will be quite consequential too.

While Jerome Powell is pondering whether to cut rates now for the first time in more than four years or perhaps wait a couple more months, Kazuo Ueda , his counterpart in Japan, is considering whether to do the opposite . After the Bank of Japan exited its negative-interest-rate regime in March, investors are looking for more tightening to come.

The Bank of Japan raised its short-term interest rate from minus 0.1% to a range of around 0% to 0.1% in March, the first increase in 17 years. Japan’s consumer prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in June, which was off from inflation’s peak pace last year, but still well higher than Japan is accustomed to.

In a possible preview of what awaits markets if the Bank of Japan leans hawkish, the Japanese yen has risen sharply in the past few weeks, appreciating 5.2% against the dollar this month from a multi-decade low. That has likely contributed to market turmoil in other markets around the world over the past couple of weeks, including the selloff in global technology stocks, as the yen, with its low interest rates, is a favourite funding currency for traders .

Hedge funds have ramped up their short bets on the yen in the past two years but could exit their positions pretty abruptly. Leveraged funds have slashed their net short position in options and futures against the yen by half in the two weeks ended July 23, according to data from Commodity Futures Trading Commission via CEIC. That is equal to a nominal value of $4.6 billion.

But the market is divided over whether a Japanese rate increase could come as soon as this week. There is a 41% probability that the Bank of Japan could raise rates by 0.15 percentage point, inferred from pricing of overnight indexed swaps, according to Bank of America.

At the meeting this Wednesday, the Bank of Japan is also expected to outline plans to unwind its portfolio of $3.8 trillion in Japanese government bonds, likely giving a further boost to long-term rates. Japan’s 10-year government bond yields have gone up 0.44 percentage point to around 1.06% this year as investors expected higher rates.

The country was swimming against the tide over the past few years by staying put on its ultra-easy monetary policies when most major central banks were raising rates. The Bank of Japan will likely be more cautious going in the opposite direction: A sharply higher yen could be punishing to exporters , and policymakers in Japan live in perpetual fear of returning to deflation. Any surprises in the BOJ’s pace as it normalises policy could still rattle financial markets.

Over the longer term, a narrowing interest-rate differential between the U.S. and Japan could shift the pattern of investment flows. Japan had the equivalent of $4 trillion in foreign portfolio investments at the end of 2023, according to official data. That includes both companies and individuals which are scouring the globe for higher returns. Some of them might bring their money back to Japan if assets at home are generating higher yields, especially if the yen is getting stronger.

U.S. 10-year government bonds still yield around 3.1 percentage points more than Japanese ones, but that is already down from a 4.2-percentage-point gap in October. If that gap keeps narrowing, it could mean tighter financing conditions in markets around the world, which have long looked to Japan as a steady buyer.

It is rare for two of the world’s largest central banks to be at major turning points in their long-term policy settings at the same time, and rarer still for them to be moving in opposite directions. The consequences could be far-ranging and unpredictable. Investors around the world will have to get used to paying more attention to what is happening in Tokyo, not just Washington, D.C.



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Wealthy Collectors Reveal Signs of Strength in the Art Market—Outside of the Auction Houses
By ABBY SCHULTZ
Fri, Nov 1, 2024 5 min

Sky-high pricey artworks may not be flying off the auction block right now, but the art market is actually doing just fine.

That’s a key takeaway from a 190-plus page report written by Art Economics founder Clare McAndrew and published Thursday morning by Art Basel and UBS. The results were based on a survey of more than 3,600 collectors with US$1 million in investable assets located in 14 markets around the world.

That the art market is doing relatively well is backed by several data points from the survey that show collectors are buying plenty of art—just at lower prices—and that they are making more purchases through galleries and art fairs versus auction houses.

It’s also backed by the perception of a “robust art market feeling,” which was evident at Art Basel Paris last week, says Matthew Newton, art advisory specialist with UBS Family Office Solutions in New York.

“It was busy and the galleries were doing well,” Newton says, noting that several dealers offered top-tier works—“the kind of stuff you only bring out to share if you have a decent amount of confidence.”

That optimism is reflected in the survey results, which found 91% of respondents were optimistic about the global art market in the next six months. That’s up from the 77% who expressed optimism at the end of last year.

Moreover, the median expenditure on fine art, decorative art and antiques, and other collectibles in the first half by those surveyed was US$25,555. If that level is maintained for the second half, it would “reflect a stable annual level of spending,” the report said. It would also exceed meet or exceed the median level of spending for the past two years.

The changes in collector behaviour noted in the report—including a decline in average spending, and buying through more diverse channels—“are likely to contribute to the ongoing shift in focus away from the narrow high-end of sales that has dominated in previous years, potentially expanding the market’s base and encouraging growth in more affordable art segments, which could provide greater stability in future,” McAndrew said in a statement.

One reason the art market may appear from the outside to be teetering is the performance of the major auction houses has been pretty dismal since last year. Aggregate sales for the first half of the year at Christie’s, Sotheby’s, Phillips, and Bonhams, reached only US$4.7 billion in the first half, down from US$6.3 billion in the first half a year ago and US$7.4 billion in the same period in 2022, the report said.

Meanwhile, the number of “fully published” sales in the first half reached 951 at the four auction houses, up from 896 in the same period last year and 811 in 2022. Considering the lower overall results in sales value, the figures imply an increase in transactions of lower-priced works.

“They’re basically just working harder for less,” Newton says.

One reason the auction houses are having difficulties is many sellers have been unwilling to part with high-value works out of concern they won’t get the kind of prices they would have at the art market’s recent highs coming out of the pandemic in 2021 and 2022. “You really only get one chance to sell it,” he says.

Also, counterintuitively, art collectors who have benefited from strength in the stock market and the greater economy may be “feeling a positive wealth effect right now,” so they don’t need to sell, Newton says. “They can wait until those ‘animal spirits’ pick back up,” referring to human emotions that can drive the market.

That collectors are focusing on art at more modest price points right now is also evident in data from the Association of Professional Art Advisors that was included in the report. According to APAA survey data of its advisors, if sales they facilitated in the first half continue at the same pace, the total number of works sold this year will be 23% more than 2023.

Most of the works purchased so far were bought for less than US$100,000, with the most common price point between US$25,000 and US$50,000.

The advisors surveyed also said that 80% of the US$500 million in transactions they conducted in the first half of this year involved buying art rather than selling it. If this pattern holds, the proportion of art bought vs. sold will be 17% more than last year and the value of those transactions will be 10% more.

“This suggests that these advisors are much more active in building collections than editing or dismantling them,” the report said.

The collectors surveyed spend most of their art dollars with dealers. Although the percentage of their spending through this channel dipped to 49% in the first half from 52% in all of last year, spending at art fairs (made largely through gallery booths) increased to 11% in the first half from 9% last year.

Collectors also bought slightly more art directly from artists (9% in the first half vs. 7% last year), and they bought more art privately (7% vs. 6%). The percentage spent at auction houses declined to 20% from 23%.

The data also showed a shift in buying trends, as 88% of those polled said they bought art from a new gallery in the past two years, and 52% bought works by new and emerging artists in 2023 and this year.

The latter data point is interesting, since works by many of these artists fall into the ultra contemporary category, where art soared to multiples of original purchase prices in a speculative frenzy from 2021-22. That bubble has burst, but the best of those artists are showing staying power, Newton says.

“You’re seeing that kind of diversion between what’s most interesting and will maintain its value over time, versus maybe what’s a little bit less interesting

and might have had speculative buying behind it,” he says.

Collectors appear better prepared to uncover the best artists, as more of those surveyed are doing background research or are seeking advice before they buy. Less than 1% of those surveyed said they buy on impulse, down from 10% a year earlier, the report said.

Not all collectors are alike so the Art Basel-UBS report goes into considerable detail breaking down preferences and actions by individuals according to the regions where they live and their age range, for instance. The lion’s share of spending on art today is by Gen X, for instance—those who are roughly 45-60 years old.

Despite a predominately optimistic view of the market, of those surveyed only 43% plan to buy more art in the next 12 months, down from more than 50% in the previous two years, the report said. Buyers in mainland China were an exception, with 70% saying they plan to buy.

Overall, more than half of all collectors surveyed across age groups and regions plan to sell, a reversal from past years. That data point could foretell a coming buyer’s market, the report said, or it “could be indicative of more hopeful forecasts on pricing or the perception that there could be better opportunities for sales in some segments in the near future than there are at present.”

In the U.S., where 48% of collectors plan to buy, Newton says he’s seeing a lot of interest in art from wealth management clients.

“They’re looking for ideas. They’re looking for names of artists that can be compelling and have staying power,” Newton says. “That’s definitely happening from an optimistic standpoint.”

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