What Is Stagflation?
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What Is Stagflation?

Learn about the World Bank’s global economic outlook.

By HARRIET TORRY
Wed, Jun 15, 2022 10:27amGrey Clock 3 min

Stagflation—a toxic cocktail of stagnating growth and rising prices—is generally viewed as a relic of the 1970s. But economists are warning it could make a comeback.

What is stagflation?

The term is broadly defined as sluggish growth tied with rising inflation. Economists haven’t given it much thought since the 1970s, when U.S. consumers lined up to fill their cars with high-price gasoline and the jobless rate hit 9%.

Earlier this week, the World Bank sharply lowered its growth forecast for the global economy this year and warned of several years of high inflation and tepid growth reminiscent of the stagflation of the 1970s.

Stagflation spells trouble for the economy. Rising inflation erodes consumer purchasing power, and weaker demand hurts companies’ profits and causes layoffs.

Stagflation also puts the Federal Reserve in a bind because the central bank’s job is to keep both inflation and unemployment low. The Fed can raise interest rates to curb inflation—a path it has started on and intends to continue this year—but if it moves too aggressively it risks strangling spending and tipping the economy into a recession.

Why is stagflation a risk now?

Inflation is close to a 40-year high, and economists are worried about economic growth because of the war in Ukraine as well as lockdowns in China and supply-chain disruptions related to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Are we in a period of stagflation now?

Not necessarily. Inflation is high, but unemployment remains near a half-century low. The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter as supply disruptions weighed on output, but most economists expect growth will resume in the second quarter because of strength in consumer and business spending. Stagflation would be a sustained period of both higher inflation and slower growth, not just one quarter.

Stagflation remains a risk to the U.S. economy, and there are similarities between the situation in the 1970s and today. Surging prices for oil and food are pushing up the cost of living, and business executives are voicing concerns about the outlook for the economy.

But the key difference between the situation in the 1970s and today is employment. During the 1970s and early 1980s, the unemployment rate at times was around 10%. It was just 3.6% in May 2022. U.S. layoff announcements, for now, are few and far between.

What is the difference between stagflation and inflation?

Inflation refers to an increase in prices for goods and services. The Fed likes to see a bit of inflation. It targets 2% inflation a year, because that signals healthy demand in the economy. But if inflation rises too quickly, the rapid price increases erode households’ purchasing power. Stagflation is a situation in which prices are rising, but demand is weakening and economic growth is slowing or contracting. As a result, businesses make less money and cut jobs, driving up unemployment. At worst, that pushes the economy into a recession.

Has stagflation happened before?

Yes, stagflation occurred from the early 1970s to the early 1980s, when surging commodity prices and double-digit inflation collided with high unemployment.

British Parliamentarian Iain Macleod is credited with first using the word stagflation in 1965. “We now have the worst of both worlds—not just inflation on the one side or stagnation on the other, but both of them together. We have a sort of ‘stagflation’ situation.”

Its seeds were planted in the late 1960s, when President Lyndon B. Johnson revved up growth with spending on the Vietnam War and his Great Society programs. Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin, meanwhile, failed to tighten monetary policy sufficiently to rein in that growth.

In the early 1970s, President Richard Nixon, with the acquiescence of Fed Chairman Arthur Burns, tried to tame inflation by imposing controls on wage and price increases. The job became harder in 1973 after the Arab oil embargo drastically drove up energy prices, and overall inflation. Mr. Burns persistently underestimated inflation pressure: In part, he didn’t realize that the economy’s potential growth rate had fallen and that an influx of young, inexperienced baby boomers into the workforce had made it harder to get unemployment down to early-1960s levels.

As a result, even when the Fed raised rates, pushing the economy into a severe recession in 1974-75, inflation and unemployment didn’t fall back to the levels of the previous decade.

The stagflation of the 1970s ended painfully. Fed Chairman Paul Volcker drastically boosted interest rates to 20% in 1981, triggering a recession and double-digit unemployment.

Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: June 14, 2022.



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For self-employed Australians, navigating the mortgage market can be complex—especially when income documentation doesn’t fit the standard mould. In this guide, Stephen Andrianakos, Director of Red Door Financial Group, outlines eight flexible loan structures designed to support business owners, freelancers, and entrepreneurs.

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A full-doc loan is the most straightforward and competitive option for self-employed borrowers with up-to-date tax returns and financials. Lenders assess two years of tax returns, assessment notices, and business financials. This type of loan offers high borrowing capacity, access to features like offset accounts and redraw facilities, and fixed and variable rate choices.

2. Low-Doc Loan
Low-doc loans are designed for borrowers who can’t provide the usual financial documentation, such as those in start-up mode or recently expanded businesses. Instead of full tax returns, lenders accept alternatives like profit and loss statements or accountant’s declarations. While rates may be slightly higher, these loans make finance accessible where banks might otherwise decline.

3. Standard Variable Rate Loan
A standard variable loan moves with the market and offers flexibility in repayments, extra contributions, and redraw options. It’s ideal for borrowers who want to manage repayments actively or pay off their loans faster when income permits. With access to over 40 lenders, brokers can help match borrowers with a variable product suited to their financial strategy.

4. Fixed Rate Loan
A fixed-rate loan offers repayment certainty over a set term—typically one to five years. It’s popular with borrowers seeking predictability, especially in volatile rate environments. While fixed loans offer fewer flexible features, their stability can be valuable for budgeting and cash flow planning.

5. Split Loan
A split loan combines fixed and variable portions, giving borrowers the security of a fixed rate on part of the loan and the flexibility of a variable rate on the other. This structure benefits self-employed clients with irregular income, allowing them to lock in part of their repayment while keeping some funds accessible.

6. Construction Loan
Construction loans release funds in stages aligned with the building process, from the initial slab to completion. These loans suit clients building a new home or undertaking major renovations. Most lenders offer interest-only repayments during construction, switching to principal-and-interest after the build. Managing timelines and approvals is key to a smooth experience.

7. Interest-Only Loan
Interest-only loans allow borrowers to pay just the interest portion of the loan for a set period, preserving cash flow. This structure is often used during growth phases in business or for investment purposes. After the interest-only period, the loan typically converts to principal-and-interest repayments.

8. Offset Home Loan
An offset home loan links your savings account to your mortgage, reducing the interest charged on the loan. For self-employed borrowers with fluctuating income, it’s a valuable tool for managing cash flow while still reducing interest and accelerating loan repayment. The funds remain accessible, offering both flexibility and efficiency.

Red Door Financial Group is a Melbourne-based brokerage firm that offers personalised financial solutions for residential, commercial, and business lending.

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