Where Do Economists Think We’re Headed? These Are Their Predictions

The Wall Street Journal’s latest quarterly survey of business and academic economists shows forecasters remain firmly optimistic about the economic outlook, despite some hints of weakness in recent data.

The following graphics show what economists are thinking now and how their forecasts—and the economy—have evolved over recent months and years. After looking at the charts, see if you can guess how economists answered questions about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and how the election could affect the deficit, inflation and interest rates.

Welcoming normalisation

For about two years, economists consistently underestimated the strength of the U.S. economy, forecasting the economy would grow slower than it did.

That changed recently when growth was lower than expected in the first three months of the year. Still, most economists believe that a slowdown was inevitable after a period of rapid expansion and too-high inflation. The economy, they argue, is normalising rather than deteriorating.

Seeing no acceleration in unemployment

In another shift, the unemployment rate has also recently climbed a little faster than economists were expecting—rising to 4.1% in June from 3.4% in early 2023.

Demand for workers seems to be cooling even as job growth remains solid, thanks in part to increased immigration. Again, economists are optimistic that this represents a return to a more stable environment.

Slow but steady progress on inflation

The Journal’s latest survey of economists concluded July 9, two days before consumer-price index data showed inflation easing substantially in June. That may partially explain why inflation forecasts nudged a bit higher since the last survey in early April.

The difference, though, is marginal. Current forecasts—like previous forecasts—show strong confidence that the Fed will succeed in bringing inflation down to its 2% target. The question has been what it would take to get there.

Higher-for-longer interest rates

The recent uptick in the unemployment rate and decline in inflation has rekindled hopes among investors that the Fed could cut short-term interest rates as many as three times this year—starting most likely in September.

Still, the recent good news on inflation has only come after a series of disappointing readings, including one that came out just after the April survey was conducted. As a result, the latest survey of economists shows a slightly higher path for rates.

Economists’ optimistic outlook can be seen in the dispersion of rate forecasts. The Fed would likely cut rates more aggressively if it were worried about a recession . However, 22% of survey respondents think that rates will fall below 3.75% by June 2025—down slightly from 25% of respondents in April.

Test yourself against the economists

We asked survey respondents a number of questions on the economy. Select an answer to see how economists responded.

In their own words

Here’s what some of the survey respondents said about the economy.

Who participates

The Wall Street survey has been publishing consensus forecasts from a panel of academic, business and financial economists for nearly 40 years. Not every economist answers every question.

Private-equity firm Paine Schwartz Partners is backing BERO, a nonalcoholic beer brand launched by British actor and “Spider-Man” star Tom Holland.

A person familiar with the transaction said it values New York-based BERO at more than $100 million and will help support the brand’s ambitious growth plans.

BERO co-founder and Chief Executive John Herman said the company aims to more than double its sales team and significantly expand distribution to roughly triple sales this year.

BERO, which Holland and Herman launched in late 2024, reached nearly $10 million in sales in its first year and expects sales to reach almost $30 million this year, said Herman, who previously served as president of C4 Energy brand drink maker Nutrabolt.

“We weren’t just looking for capital,” Herman said. “We were looking for great partners that could help us grow.”

Paine Schwartz is investing through BetterCo Holdings, a portfolio company in the firm’s sixth flagship fund that it formed late last year to hold non-control investments in better-for-you food and beverage businesses, Paine Schwartz CEO Kevin Schwartz said.

Ultimately, Schwartz said he expects BetterCo to hold five to 10 investments.

BERO, BetterCo’s third investment, falls within the firm’s typical growth investment range of $10 million to $25 million, he said.

Earlier BERO backers include leading talent agency William Morris Endeavor Entertainment and venture-capital firm Imaginary Ventures, which also participated in the latest investment.

“This first external raise is not just a milestone, but a validation of what’s been achieved in a single year,” said Logan Langberg, a partner at Imaginary Ventures.

When they started BERO, Holland and Herman tapped as brewmaster Grant Wood, a past Boston Beer executive who went on to found Revolver Brewing, now part of Tilray Brands.

The brand currently offers four types of beer, including two IPAs. Its products are sold at Target stores, on Amazon.com and at other retail locations, such as supermarket chains Sprouts Farmers Market and Wegmans Food Markets in the U.S. and Morrisons in the U.K. BERO is also available at a number of liquor stores and bars and restaurants.

The company also offers a $55 a year premium membership that offers such perks as free shipping and access to member-only products and limited-edition releases.

To help build the brand’s name, BERO has struck a series of partnerships, becoming the official nonalcoholic beer partner of luxury sports-car maker Aston Martin and fitness studio chain Barry’s.

Nonalcoholic beers, which generally contain less than 0.5% of alcohol by volume, have become increasingly popular and account for the biggest share of alcohol-free drink sales, according to the Beer Institute, a national trade association.

Sales of such drinks are growing at a more than 20% annual rate and were expected to exceed $1 billion in 2025, according to market-research firm NielsenIQ, citing so-called off-premise channel sales it tracks, such as sales at liquor stores and grocery stores. But the bulk of those sales come from the top five brands, such as Athletic Brewing, co-founded by a former trader at Steve Cohen’s hedge fund Point72 Asset Management, NielsenIQ said.

Alcohol-free drinks, the market-research firm said, have emerged as a lifestyle choice—one based not on quitting alcohol but expanding options, with most non-alcohol buyers also buying alcoholic drinks.

“There’s a pendular swing in behaviours that [is] happening right now when it comes to people’s relationship with alcohol,” Herman said.

Corrections & Amplifications undefined Nonalcoholic beer brand BERO offers its fans a premium membership for $55 a year. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said the membership costs $50. (Corrected on Jan. 20.)