Where Do Economists Think We’re Headed? These Are Their Predictions

The Wall Street Journal’s latest quarterly survey of business and academic economists shows forecasters remain firmly optimistic about the economic outlook, despite some hints of weakness in recent data.

The following graphics show what economists are thinking now and how their forecasts—and the economy—have evolved over recent months and years. After looking at the charts, see if you can guess how economists answered questions about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and how the election could affect the deficit, inflation and interest rates.

Welcoming normalisation

For about two years, economists consistently underestimated the strength of the U.S. economy, forecasting the economy would grow slower than it did.

That changed recently when growth was lower than expected in the first three months of the year. Still, most economists believe that a slowdown was inevitable after a period of rapid expansion and too-high inflation. The economy, they argue, is normalising rather than deteriorating.

Seeing no acceleration in unemployment

In another shift, the unemployment rate has also recently climbed a little faster than economists were expecting—rising to 4.1% in June from 3.4% in early 2023.

Demand for workers seems to be cooling even as job growth remains solid, thanks in part to increased immigration. Again, economists are optimistic that this represents a return to a more stable environment.

Slow but steady progress on inflation

The Journal’s latest survey of economists concluded July 9, two days before consumer-price index data showed inflation easing substantially in June. That may partially explain why inflation forecasts nudged a bit higher since the last survey in early April.

The difference, though, is marginal. Current forecasts—like previous forecasts—show strong confidence that the Fed will succeed in bringing inflation down to its 2% target. The question has been what it would take to get there.

Higher-for-longer interest rates

The recent uptick in the unemployment rate and decline in inflation has rekindled hopes among investors that the Fed could cut short-term interest rates as many as three times this year—starting most likely in September.

Still, the recent good news on inflation has only come after a series of disappointing readings, including one that came out just after the April survey was conducted. As a result, the latest survey of economists shows a slightly higher path for rates.

Economists’ optimistic outlook can be seen in the dispersion of rate forecasts. The Fed would likely cut rates more aggressively if it were worried about a recession . However, 22% of survey respondents think that rates will fall below 3.75% by June 2025—down slightly from 25% of respondents in April.

Test yourself against the economists

We asked survey respondents a number of questions on the economy. Select an answer to see how economists responded.

In their own words

Here’s what some of the survey respondents said about the economy.

Who participates

The Wall Street survey has been publishing consensus forecasts from a panel of academic, business and financial economists for nearly 40 years. Not every economist answers every question.

It’s go time for the highest-stakes mission at NASA in more than 50 years.

On April 1, the agency is set to launch four astronauts around the moon, the deepest human spaceflight since the final Apollo lunar landing in 1972.

The launch window for Artemis II , as the mission is called, opens at 6:24 p.m. ET.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration teams have been preparing the vehicles to depart from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center on the planned roughly 10-day trip. Crew members have trained for years for this moment.

Reid Wiseman, the NASA astronaut serving as mission commander, said he doesn’t fear taking the voyage. A widower, he does worry at times about what he is putting his daughters through.

“I could have a very comfortable life for them,” Wiseman said in an interview last September.

“But I’m also a human, and I see the spirit in their eyes that is burning in my soul too. And so we’ve just got to never stop going.”

Wiseman’s crewmates on Artemis II are NASA’s Victor Glover and Christina Koch, as well as Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen.

Photo: NASA’s Artemis II SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft being rolled out at night. Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo/Getty Images

What are the goals for Artemis II?

The biggest one: Safely fly the crew on vehicles that have never carried astronauts before.

The towering Space Launch System rocket has the job of lofting a vehicle called Orion into space and on its way to the moon.

Orion is designed to carry the crew around the moon and back. Myriad systems on the ship—life support, communications, navigation—will be tested with the astronauts on board.

SLS and Orion don’t have much flight experience. The vehicles last flew in 2022, when the agency completed its uncrewed Artemis I mission .

How is the mission expected to unfold?

Artemis II will begin when SLS takes off from a launchpad in Florida with Orion stacked on top of it.

The so-called upper stage of SLS will later separate from the main part of the rocket with Orion attached, and use its engine to set up the latter vehicle for a push to the moon.

After Orion separates from the upper stage, it will conduct what is called a translunar injection—the engine firing that commits Orion to soaring out to the moon. It will fly to the moon over the course of a few days and travel around its far side.

Orion will face a tough return home after speeding through space. As it hits Earth’s atmosphere, Orion will be flying at 25,000 miles an hour and face temperatures of 5,000 degrees as it slows down. The capsule is designed to land under parachutes in the Pacific Ocean, not far from San Diego.

Water photo: NASA’s Orion capsule after its splash-down in the Pacific Ocean in 2022 for the Artemis I mission. Mario Tama/Press Pool

Is it possible Artemis II will be delayed?

Yes.

For safety reasons, the agency won’t launch if certain tough weather conditions roll through the Cape Canaveral, Fla., area. Delays caused by technical problems are possible, too. NASA has other dates identified for the mission if it doesn’t begin April 1.

Who are the astronauts flying on Artemis II?

The crew will be led by Wiseman, a retired Navy pilot who completed military deployments before joining NASA’s astronaut corps. He traveled to the International Space Station in 2014.

Two other astronauts will represent NASA during the mission: Glover, an experienced Navy pilot, and Koch, who began her career as an electrical engineer for the agency and once spent a year at a research station in the South Pole. Both have traveled to the space station before.

Hansen is a military pilot who joined Canada’s astronaut corps in 2009. He will be making his first trip to space.

Koch’s participation in Artemis II will mark the first time a woman has flown beyond orbits near Earth. Glover and Hansen will be the first African-American and non-American astronauts, respectively, to do the same.

What will the astronauts do during the flight?

The astronauts will evaluate how Orion flies, practice emergency procedures and capture images of the far side of the moon for scientific and exploration purposes (they may become the first humans to see parts of the far side of the lunar surface). Health-tracking projects of the astronauts are designed to inform future missions.

Those efforts will play out in Orion’s crew module, which has about two minivans worth of living area.

On board, the astronauts will spend about 30 minutes a day exercising, using a device that allows them to do dead lifts, rowing and more. Sleep will come in eight-hour stretches in hammocks.

There is a custom-made warmer for meals, with beef brisket and veggie quiche on the menu.

Each astronaut is permitted two flavored beverages a day, including coffee. The crew will hold one hourlong shared meal each day.

The Universal Waste Management System—that’s the toilet—uses air flow to pull fluid and solid waste away into containers.

What happens after Artemis II?

Assuming it goes well, NASA will march on to Artemis III, scheduled for next year. During that operation, NASA plans to launch Orion with crew members on board and have the ship practice docking with lunar-lander vehicles that Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin have been developing. The rendezvous operations will occur relatively close to Earth.

NASA hopes that its contractors and the agency itself are ready to attempt one or more lunar landing missions in 2028. Many current and former spaceflight officials are skeptical that timeline is feasible.