Where Will Bitcoin Land?
The technicals are all over the map.
The technicals are all over the map.
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market were trading higher ahead of a key Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy, expected this afternoon. Bitcoin was trading at around $38,100, up 4%, while Ether was ahead 6% to $2,600.
But crypto has been especially volatile as the markets try to digest new regulatory pressures and a tougher macro climate, including higher interest rates and tighter liquidity conditions. The outlook is hammering tech stocks, and cryptos aren’t being spared with Bitcoin and Ether down more than 40% from all-time highs last November, wiping out $1.2 trillion in the crypto market’s overall market cap.
The volatility reflects the fact that crypto is looking increasingly correlated to equities. It’s also an emerging asset class that trades 24/7 on a variety of centralized and decentralized-financial platforms. There are no orderly-trading mechanisms or circuit breakers that stock exchanges use to pause a steep price drop. Liquidity can also dry up quickly, amplifying the impact of a few large sell-orders.
Moreover, Bitcoin serves as collateral for borrowing other cryptos, and it’s used for pair trades with alt-coins in “smart contracts” on DeFi platforms. As prices for alt-coins tank, positions may be automatically liquidated if traders don’t add more Bitcoin as collateral. That can add to downward price momentum.
The market is now clearly on edge with a bias toward short positions, or traders expecting prices to decline. That’s evident in the futures market, where funding costs for perpetual futures contracts have turned negative. Demand for short contracts is so strong that short sellers are paying to open positions, pushing the cost, or funding rate, negative.
“That gives us a clue as to which way the derivatives market is positioned,” said Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat Global, in an interview. “There’s high demand for Bitcoin short positions with funding rates going negative.”
One implication is that Bitcoin could bounce higher if the Fed policy turns more dovish than the market expects. Short traders could face a “squeeze” if Bitcoin prices jump, forcing them to buy Bitcoin to cover the positions. Conversely, if the Fed proves more hawkish than anticipated, long positions would be forced to liquidate, adding to the downward pressure in Bitcoin.
“The takeaway is that trading ahead of the Fed is tough sledding in either direction,” says Farrell.
Technical indicators, meanwhile, are all over the map. Relative strength indexes are neutral, implying that Bitcoin is neither oversold or overbought. But Bitcoin is trading well below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, $48,700 and $44,900, respectively. That indicates key support levels have long been breached, making it more likely that Bitcoin could bust through other technical levels.
Some technical analysis indicates a floor at $33,000, where Bitcoin recently hit a bottom and buyers came in to support a move back up. But $29,800 is also a credible floor, based on historical patterns; Bitcoin fell to that low last July and then went on to rally to nearly $70,000.
“A lot of investors would back up the truck and open their chequebooks at prices around $29,000,” says Farrell.
Other analysts see support at $30,000. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg LP, says that Bitcoin has found support at 30% below its 52-week moving average, which would be $30,000 based on the last year’s charts.
“That’s a key level to hold a floor and bounce back to the upper end of its trading range,” he said in an interview, noting that it’s been rangebound between $30,000 and $60,000.
“It’s been a range-trader’s delight between $30,000 and $60,000 for over a year,” he says. “Institutional holders are responsive buyers on an approach to $30,000, and I would see the tide rising at that level.”
Wilfred Daye, head of Securitize Capital, a digital-asset marketplace, also sees support at $30,000. But if Bitcoin drops below $30,000, its next stop could be $27,000.
That’s the price at which Bitcoin mining operations generally break even on their operating costs, he says. Miners earn Bitcoin as payments in exchange for processing transactions on the network; when the price falls below their electricity costs, it’s no longer profitable to keep the machines humming and they tend to scale back.
“A lot of miners will shut down their operations, and start selling Bitcoin to fulfil operating costs if prices hit $27,000,” says Daye. That, in turn, would add to downward price pressure.
And what happens if Bitcoin does drop to $27,000? “That’s a very scary thought,” he says, since it could usher in another “crypto winter” with prices falling more than 75% from all-time highs.
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Food prices continue to rise at a rapid pace, surprising central banks and pressuring debt-laden governments
LONDON—Fresh out of an energy crisis, Europeans are facing a food-price explosion that is changing diets and forcing consumers across the region to tighten their belts—literally.
This is happening even though inflation as a whole is falling thanks to lower energy prices, presenting a new policy challenge for governments that deployed billions in aid last year to keep businesses and households afloat through the worst energy crisis in decades.
New data on Wednesday showed inflation in the U.K. fell sharply in April as energy prices cooled, following a similar pattern around Europe and in the U.S. But food prices were 19.3% higher than a year earlier.
The continued surge in food prices has caught central bankers off guard and pressured governments that are still reeling from the cost of last year’s emergency support to come to the rescue. And it is pressuring household budgets that are also under strain from rising borrowing costs.
In France, households have cut their food purchases by more than 10% since the invasion of Ukraine, while their purchases of energy have fallen by 4.8%.
In Germany, sales of food fell 1.1% in March from the previous month, and were down 10.3% from a year earlier, the largest drop since records began in 1994. According to the Federal Information Centre for Agriculture, meat consumption was lower in 2022 than at any time since records began in 1989, although it said that might partly reflect a continuing shift toward more plant-based diets.
Food retailers’ profit margins have contracted because they can’t pass on the entire price increases from their suppliers to their customers. Markus Mosa, chief executive of the Edeka supermarket chain, told German media that the company had stopped ordering products from several large suppliers because of rocketing prices.
A survey by the U.K.’s statistics agency earlier this month found that almost three-fifths of the poorest 20% of households were cutting back on food purchases.
“This is an access problem,” said Ludovic Subran, chief economist at insurer Allianz, who previously worked at the United Nations World Food Program. “Total food production has not plummeted. This is an entitlement crisis.”
Food accounts for a much larger share of consumer spending than energy, so a smaller rise in prices has a greater impact on budgets. The U.K.’s Resolution Foundation estimates that by the summer, the cumulative rise in food bills since 2020 will have amounted to 28 billion pounds, equivalent to $34.76 billion, outstripping the rise in energy bills, estimated at £25 billion.
“The cost of living crisis isn’t ending, it is just entering a new phase,” Torsten Bell, the research group’s chief executive, wrote in a recent report.
Food isn’t the only driver of inflation. In the U.K., the core rate of inflation—which excludes food and energy—rose to 6.8% in April from 6.2% in March, its highest level since 1992. Core inflation was close to its record high in the eurozone during the same month.
Still, Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey told lawmakers Tuesday that food prices now constitute a “fourth shock” to inflation after the bottlenecks that jammed supply chains during the Covid-19 pandemic, the rise in energy prices that accompanied Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and surprisingly tight labor markets.
Europe’s governments spent heavily on supporting households as energy prices soared. Now they have less room to borrow given the surge in debt since the pandemic struck in 2020.
Some governments—including those of Italy, Spain and Portugal—have cut sales taxes on food products to ease the burden on consumers. Others are leaning on food retailers to keep their prices in check. In March, the French government negotiated an agreement with leading retailers to refrain from price rises if it is possible to do so.
Retailers have also come under scrutiny in Ireland and a number of other European countries. In the U.K., lawmakers have launched an investigation into the entire food supply chain “from farm to fork.”
“Yesterday I had the food producers into Downing Street, and we’ve also been talking to the supermarkets, to the farmers, looking at every element of the supply chain and what we can do to pass on some of the reduction in costs that are coming through to consumers as fast as possible,” U.K. Treasury Chief Jeremy Hunt said during The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council Summit in London.
The government’s Competition and Markets Authority last week said it would take a closer look at retailers.
“Given ongoing concerns about high prices, we are stepping up our work in the grocery sector to help ensure competition is working well,” said Sarah Cardell, who heads the CMA.
Some economists expect that added scrutiny to yield concrete results, assuming retailers won’t want to tarnish their image and will lean on their suppliers to keep prices down.
“With supermarkets now more heavily under the political spotlight, we think it more likely that price momentum in the food basket slows,” said Sanjay Raja, an economist at Deutsche Bank.
It isn’t entirely clear why food prices have risen so fast for so long. In world commodity markets, which set the prices received by farmers, food prices have been falling since April 2022. But raw commodity costs are just one part of the final price. Consumers are also paying for processing, packaging, transport and distribution, and the size of the gap between the farm and the dining table is unusually wide.
The BOE’s Bailey thinks one reason for the bank having misjudged food prices is that food producers entered into longer-term but relatively expensive contracts with fertilizer, energy and other suppliers around the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in their eagerness to guarantee availability at a time of uncertainty.
But as the pressures being placed on retailers suggest, some policy makers suspect that an increase in profit margins may also have played a role. Speaking to lawmakers, Bailey was wary of placing any blame on food suppliers.
“It’s a story about rebuilding margins that were squeezed in the early part of last year,” he said.
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