World Economy on Track for Slight Pickup as Inflation Is Tamed
In its quarterly report on the economic outlook, the OECD said it now expects global output to increase by 3.2% in 2024 and again in 2025
3 min
Falling interest rates and recovering real wages will help drive a slight pickup in global economic growth this year and next, while recent falls in oil prices could aid the final push to tame inflation, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday.
However, the Paris-based research body warned that “comparatively benign” projections may not come to pass, with uncertainties remaining about how large an impact high interest rates will have on demand in the months ahead, while an escalation of the conflicts in the Middle East could push oil prices sharply higher.
In its quarterly report on the economic outlook, the OECD said it now expects global output to increase by 3.2% in 2024 and again in 2025, having grown by 3.1% last year. That was a slight upgrade from the 3.1% growth it forecast in May, and a sizable revision from the 2.7% expansion it expected to see when it published forecasts at the end of 2023.
The U.S. is largely responsible for that better performance, but India and Brazil are also growing more rapidly than expected, as is the U.K. By contrast, Germany and Japan have disappointed, with the former now forecast to hover on the brink of stagnation this year, and the latter to experience a small contraction.
However, despite the improved outlook for growth, and inflation rates that the OECD expects to fall to central-bank targets by the end of next year, consumer confidence has yet to pick up significantly, which would give a further boost to growth.
The OECD said that persistent dissatisfaction with economic performance, which is not limited to the U.S., is likely linked to the fact that food prices remain well above their pre-pandemic levels.
“There is a disconnect between how the economy is perceived and how the economy is doing,” said Alvaro Pereira , the OECD’s chief economist. “For people who go to the supermarket, food prices relative to wages are still higher.”
In the U.S., the gap between food-price and wage inflation between the end of 2019 and the second quarter of this year was roughly four percentage points. But that gap was much wider in large European economies, and above 15 percentage points in Germany. In South Africa, it was above 20 points.
The recent fall in oil prices may help offset some of that dissatisfaction, and boost a global fight to tame inflation that appears to be in its final stages. The OECD estimated that the 10% decline since July would knock half a percentage point off the global rate of inflation, if it were to be sustained. But it is far from certain that it will be.
“If the conflict in the Middle East escalates, this will have an impact on energy prices,” Pereira said.
Should escalation be avoided, the OECD said further falls in oil prices could allow for a faster reduction in central-bank interest rates than it currently expects, and boost growth in countries that don’t produce oil.
With inflation rates set to fall further, the OECD said central banks should lower their key interest rates, but in a manner that is “carefully judged” to ensure price rises continue to slow. It expects the Federal Reserve’s key rate to fall by a further 1.5 percentage points by the end of 2025, while the European Central Bank’s key rate is forecast to fall by 1.25 percentage points.
The Paris-based body said the interest-rate rises that central banks announced in 2022 and 2023 to counter a surge in inflation continue to weigh on growth, although with diminishing force.
But it noted that many households and businesses continue to see the interest rates they pay rise as their debts mature and they enter into new contracts. The OECD estimated that almost a third of rich-country corporate debt is due to mature in 2026, with new debt issued to replace it likely paying a higher rate of interest.
The OECD left its forecast for U.S. growth in 2024 unchanged at 2.6%, and also retained its 4.9% projection for China. Pereira said the package of stimulus measures announced by the Chinese government Tuesday could lead to a “slight” upward revision when the OECD next releases growth forecasts in early December.
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The voices reshaping how Australians think about money — and why credibility matters more than reach.
6 min
The best financial advice many Australians are receiving right now is not coming from licensed advisers charging by the hour. It is coming through a phone screen, in the ten minutes between work and dinner, from creators who have built credibility the hard way: by being right, being transparent, and being specific in a space where vagueness has always been the easy default.
This is not a ranking by follower count. Follower count is a measure of distribution, not of quality. What follows is a ranking by substance — credentials, accuracy, community depth, and the quality of what an audience actually learns from following these accounts. The distinction matters, because the Australians acting on this content are making real financial decisions with real money.
1- Queenie Tan – Corporate Authorised Representative; Co-Founder & Director, Invest With Queenie & Billroo
There are finance influencers who talk about building wealth, and there are those who document it in real time with receipts. Queenie Tan belongs firmly in the second category. Starting from a $400-per-week income, Tan built her net worth past $1 million while publishing the actual numbers — income, savings rate, investment decisions — for an audience of more than 400,000 across platforms.
She is a Corporate Authorised Representative, co-founder of the personal finance app Billroo, and the author of a book that has become a practical reference for young Australians navigating ETFs, superannuation and property. What separates her from the crowded field of money educators is precision: she does not talk in principles when she can talk in percentages.
2- Alan Kohler – Editor-in-Chief, Eureka Report; Editor-in-Chief, InvestSMART Group; ABC News finance presenter, host of Inside Business.
If Queenie Tan represents the new wave of personal finance creators, Alan Kohler represents something the new wave will spend decades trying to build: institutional credibility that has survived multiple economic cycles. As Editor-in-Chief of the Eureka Report and InvestSMART Group, and a decades-long presence on ABC News, Kohler has spent more than thirty years making financial analysis accessible without dumbing it down.
His coverage of RBA decisions, market movements and economic policy is cited by podcasters, journalists and fund managers alike. He is not chasing virality. He does not need to.
3- Aleks Nikolic – Corporate lawyer; host, Big Swinging Stocks podcast
Most finance creators address the mechanics of money. Aleks Nikolic addresses the psychology — and that distinction explains why her following is as loyal as it is. Operating as Broke Girl Wealth across Instagram, TikTok and YouTube, Nikolic covers ETFs, crypto and investment strategy, but her real differentiator is a willingness to discuss the emotional architecture of financial decision-making.
Shame around debt. Fear around market volatility. The limiting beliefs that stop people acting on what they already know. In a space where confidence is routinely performed, her candour is a genuine competitive advantage.
4- Bryce Leske & Alec Renehan – Equity Mates Media
Equity Mates did not build a following. They built a media company. What began as a podcast by two friends learning to invest has grown into Australia’s most established investing media brand, covering ASX stocks, ETFs, global markets and fund manager interviews across podcast, social and YouTube.
The longevity is the credential. Equity Mates has operated through multiple market cycles, a global pandemic, and a generational shift in how Australians engage with investing — and its audience has grown through all of it. When the hosts speak, their listeners know they have been paying attention for years.
5- The Lazy CEO – CEO & Founder, Showpo; Shark Tank Australia investor
The metric that matters most on social media is not followers — it is engagement, because engagement signals trust. Jane Lu, known as The Lazy CEO, maintains an engagement rate of approximately 1.15 per cent on Instagram, which is exceptional for a finance account of his size. Her 242,000-plus followers are not passive consumers: they ask questions, share experiences and apply what they read.
Her content focuses on business finance and wealth building, and the active comment sections are the clearest possible evidence that her audience does not merely scroll past.
6- Tash Invests – Founder, Tash Lends; Forbes Australia 30 Under 30
Tash Invests built her following on a premise that sounds simple but is rarer in practice than it should be: she publishes the actual numbers. Not approximations or ranges or anonymised case studies — her salary, her savings rate, her portfolio value, her net worth, updated and on the record.
Having bought her first property at twenty-two and grown her documented net worth past $1 million, she has become the primary reference point for young Australians trying to understand what building wealth on a moderate income genuinely looks like. The specificity is the product.
7- David Scutt – APAC Market Analyst at StoneX Group
The authority of most finance social media content rests on research and reading. David Scutt‘s authority rests on having done the job. A former Treasury Dealer at Arab Bank and the Commonwealth Bank, former ASX Business Supervisor, and former Global Markets Editor at Business Insider Australia and anchor at ausbiz TV, Scutt now brings that direct market experience to his role as APAC Market Analyst at StoneX Group, rather than relying on secondary commentary.
When he discusses foreign exchange movements or ASX dynamics, it is not because he has read about them. It is because he has traded them.
8- Meddy Demars – Investing & crypto content creator
The gap Meddy Demars fills is specific and underserviced: connecting global macroeconomic events to the practical reality of Australian investors. When the US Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, when inflation data moves, when commodity prices shift — most Australian finance content either ignores the local implications or translates them poorly.
Demars, operating across TikTok and Instagram from Sydney, does the translation well: explaining what global conditions mean for Australian stocks, savings rates and investment portfolios in terms that are accessible without being condescending.
9- Simran Kaur – Founder, Friends That Invest
Friends That Invest is arguably the most successful community-building exercise in Australian personal finance, and Simran Kaur is the reason why. The New Zealand-based creator — whose audience is predominantly Australian — built a podcast, a book and a social media presence around a single insight: that the personal finance world was not speaking to young women, and that the consequences of that gap were significant.
The measurable cultural shift that followed — women engaging with investing concepts in communities that had not previously existed — is the kind of impact that most financial literacy programmes aim for and rarely achieve.
10- Effie Zahos – Money Editor at 9News
Effie Zahos is one of Australia’s most recognised financial commentators, appearing regularly across 9News, A Current Affair, Today and Today Extra as 9News Money Editor. Her role puts everyday money questions, from mortgage rates to cost-of-living pressures, in front of a national broadcast audience.
Before television, she spent years as editor of Money magazine, building the editorial foundation for her current commentary. She is also Director and Money Commentator at InvestSMART, an ambassador for Canstar, and a published author, with her financial advice available in print as well as on screen.
That combination, decades of editorial experience, an active broadcast presence, and a body of published work, is what makes her commentary carry weight beyond any single platform or post.
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