The ‘October Theory’ of Changing Your Life

October is traditionally the time to break out the cozy sweaters and consume as many pumpkin-spice drinks as possible. Instead, people are now using it to reset their goals.

Dubbed “October Theory,” these people are rethinking their approach to the last three months of the year. They’re using it as a time to set goals, pick up new habits and reflect—essentially taking on the role New Year’s plays.

October Theory is the latest “theory” social media has latched onto. Between the uneven job market, inflation, and the usual daily grind, people are looking for something they can control. Setting goals and improving their lives —whether it’s their health, finances or mindset—is something they are gravitating toward.

Sarah Stone, a 35-year-old Realtor in Kansas City, Mo., says October is a better time to reflect on the previous nine months and also home in on what she wants to achieve in the last few months of the year. This month, she’s decluttering her home and purging habits such as too much impulse shopping at TJ Maxx.

“It feels almost like the beginning of the year is in the wrong place on the calendar,” says Stone.

October can feel like an introspective time for people since the seasons are changing, a new academic school year has started and the current year is on its way out, says Laurie Kramer, a licensed clinical psychologist and a professor of applied psychology at Northeastern University. The Jewish new year—Rosh Hashana—also takes place in September or October, giving millions a time to reflect.

“This is a great time, 90 days from the new year, from the holidays, to reassess, see where you are with things,” Kramer says.

Start now, win later

October Theory is catching on partly because it sets someone up for success by the time January rolls around, say fans of the trend. Instead of picking up a new habit in the dead of winter—at the same time everyone else is trying to make it to the gym, for instance—it has already been in place for three months.

Every new year, Allison Bucheleres, a 30-year-old lifestyle and fashion content creator in Miami, tries to set new goals. Often, she fails because she doesn’t have a routine in place to make it happen.

Most of her goals this month revolve around setting new daily routines, such as waking up at 7 a.m., journaling her thoughts and writing self-affirmations to reframe her thinking. Around the middle of the day, she’ll repeat her positive phrases—at times over 100 of them—and will sometimes write one on a sticky note to post on her bathroom mirror.

Bucheleres’s newest self-mantra: “I can control my work and my self belief, but not the timing.”

Simple behaviours that are easy to repeat could take as few as 30 times to become a habit. More complex ones, such as going to the gym, could take up to three months of daily practice, says Wendy Wood, professor emerita of psychology and business at the University of Southern California.

The best time to change behaviour is during a big life change, such as moving to a new house or starting a new job or relationship—regardless of whether it’s in January or October, she says.

“You have a sort of window of opportunity to make decisions about what you want to do without your old habits getting in the way,” Wood says.

Making the most of 2024

Others view October as a last chance to fulfil the goals and aspirations they set months ago.

That includes Mateo Pérez, who is in the final stretch for his weightlifting and running regimen. The 19-year-old sophomore, who is majoring in creative advertising at the University of Miami, is also working on an application to transfer to New York University for the fall 2025 semester. Pérez wants to finish the application by the end of this semester in December.

“Right now, it’s like a reflection of this whole year and how can we make the most of the last three months,” Pérez says.

Psychologists say being introspective—at any time of the year—helps people develop habits and routines. It is often the key to following through on your goals.

Two Octobers ago, Kelly Sites, a 38-year-old customer-support manager and content creator, decided to stop living overseas. By February, she had moved to Kansas City, Mo.

This year, she’s trying to set up a daily meditation and breathing practice, and eat more whole foods. In a TikTok post on Oct. 2, Sites encouraged people to go to their photo albums and type in October to see how much their lives have changed in the 10th month of the year.

“It’s this idea of hibernation, seasons changing,” Sites says. “There’s always seeds of my life that were planted in October that changed the rest of the year.”

Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu delivered a warning to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during a recent visit to Washington: Already-high airfares will surge if the war in Iran doesn’t end soon.

Sununu, a Republican who represents some of the biggest airlines as president of the industry group Airlines for America, has for weeks sounded the alarm to Trump administration officials about the economic fallout from high jet fuel prices. The war, Sununu has argued, must come to a close soon, or things will get worse.

Administration officials have gotten the message.

Privately, President Trump’s advisers are increasingly worried that Republicans will pay a political price for the rising fuel costs, according to people familiar with the matter. Many of those advisers are eager to end the war, hoping prices will begin to moderate before November’s midterm elections.

The fallout from the U.S.-Israeli attack in late February has slowed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane, triggering a sharp increase in oil, gasoline and jet-fuel prices.

That means consumers are grappling with high costs ahead of the summer travel season, as they consider vacation plans.

Sixty-three per cent of Americans said they put a great deal or a good amount of blame on Trump for the increase in gas prices, according to a new poll conducted by NPR, PBS and Marist.

More than 8 in 10 Americans said struggles at the gas pump are putting strain on their finances.

Jet-fuel prices roughly doubled in a matter of weeks after the war began, and they have remained high. Airlines have said that will add billions of dollars of additional expenses this year, squeezing profit margins.

U.S. airlines spent more than $5 billion on fuel in March—up 30% from a year earlier, according to government data.

Carriers have been raising ticket prices, hoping to pass the cost along to consumers, and they are culling flights that will no longer make money at higher price levels.

In March, the price of a U.S. domestic round-trip economy ticket rose 21% from a year earlier to $570, according to Airlines Reporting Corp., which tracks travel-agency sales.

So far, airlines have said the higher fares haven’t deterred bookings and they are hoping to recoup more of the fuel-cost increases as the year goes on.

Earlier this week, Trump said the current price of oil is “a very small price to pay for getting rid of a nuclear weapon from people that are really mentally deranged.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that if Iran got a nuclear weapon, the country would have more leverage to keep the strait closed and “make our gas prices like $9 a gallon or $8 a gallon.”

Trump has taken steps in recent days to bring the war to an end. Late Tuesday, the president paused a plan to help guide trapped commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, expressing optimism that a deal could be reached with Iran to end the conflict.

Crude oil prices fell below $100 a barrel on Wednesday, after reports that Iran and the U.S. are working with mediators on a one-page framework to restart negotiations aimed at ending the conflict and opening the strait.

Sununu said Trump administration officials are conscious of the economic fallout from the war: “They get it…and I think that’s why they’re trying to get through the war as fast as they can.”

But he cautioned that it could take months for prices to return to prewar levels.

“Ticket prices won’t go down immediately” after the strait is fully reopened, Sununu said. “You’re looking at elevated ticket prices through the summer and fall because it takes a while for the prices to go down.”

Since the initial U.S.-Israeli attack in late February, Sununu has met in Washington with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, representatives from the Transportation Department and senior White House officials.

A White House official confirmed that Hassett and Sununu have discussed the effect of increased fuel prices on the airline industry. The official said the conversation touched on how the industry can mitigate the impact of high jet fuel prices on consumers.

“The president and his entire energy team anticipated these short-term disruptions to the global energy markets from Operation Epic Fury and had a plan prepared to mitigate these disruptions,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said, pointing to the administration’s decision to waive a century-old shipping law in a bid to lower the cost of moving oil.

Rogers said the administration is working with industry representatives to “address their concerns, explore potential actions, and inform the president’s policy decisions.”

A Treasury Department spokesman pointed to Bessent’s recent comments on Fox News that the U.S. economy remains strong despite price increases. The spokesman said Treasury officials have met with airline executives, who have reaffirmed strong ticket bookings.

“We’re cognizant that this short-term move up in prices is affecting the American people, but I am also confident, on the other side of this, prices will come down very quickly,” Bessent told Fox News on Monday.

The war has already contributed to one casualty in the industry: Spirit Airlines. Company representatives have said they were forced to close the airline because the sustained surge in jet-fuel prices derailed the company’s plan to emerge from chapter 11 bankruptcy.

The Trump administration and Spirit failed to come to an agreement for the company to receive a financial lifeline of as much as $500 million from the federal government.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has argued that the Iran war wasn’t the cause of Spirit’s demise, pointing to the company’s past financial struggles, as well as the Biden administration’s decision to challenge a merger with JetBlue.

Other budget airlines have also turned to the federal government for help since the U.S.-Israeli attack. A group of budget airlines last month sought $2.5 billion in financial assistance to offset higher fuel costs, and they separately wrote to lawmakers asking for relief from certain ticket taxes.

The ‘October Theory’ of Changing Your Life

People are using the beginning of fall as the best time to reset their goals and values, inspired by a social-media trend

Start now, win later

Making the most of 2024

Administration officials have spoken to the airline industry, which has voiced concerns about the rising costs.