Another rate rise, but it’s not over yet
The RBA is resolute in its task to bring inflation under control
The RBA is resolute in its task to bring inflation under control
The cash rate has hit its highest peak since 2012 following the RBA’s decision this afternoon to raise it by a further 25 basis points.
This will raise interest rates a further 0.25 percent to 3.6 percent, as predicted by most economists and the major banks earlier today. It marks the 10th consecutive rise since May 2022 and places the cash rate at 105 basis points above the pre-COVID decade average of 2.55 percent. For borrowers with a $500,000 mortgage, that adds about $160 more each month to repayments.
Despite concerns expressed by various sectors of the community regarding the impacts of further pressure on household incomes, the Reserve Bank’s statement cited an ongoing commitment to driving down inflation as an influence on its decision.
“The Board’s priority is to return inflation to target,” the board said. “High inflation makes life difficult for people and damages the functioning of the economy. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be very costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment.
“The Board is seeking to return inflation to the 2–3 per cent target range while keeping the economy on an even keel, but the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one.”
Responding to criticism from some quarters that the full effects of consecutive rate rises over the past 10 months has yet to be quantified, the board said it recognised that “monetary policy operates with a lag and that the full effect of the cumulative increase in interest rates is yet to be felt in mortgage payments” and that some households would be feeling the pinch more than others.
“Some households have substantial savings buffers, but others are experiencing a painful squeeze on their budgets due to higher interest rates and the increase in the cost of living,” it said.
Indicating that further rate rises could be on the way, the board said ‘further tightening of monetary policy will be needed’.
“The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.”
The RBA is next due to meet on April 4.
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Continued stagflation and cost of living pressures are causing couples to think twice about starting a family, new data has revealed, with long term impacts expected
Australia is in the midst of a ‘baby recession’ with preliminary estimates showing the number of births in 2023 fell by more than four percent to the lowest level since 2006, according to KPMG. The consultancy firm says this reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on the feasibility of younger Australians starting a family.
KPMG estimates that 289,100 babies were born in 2023. This compares to 300,684 babies in 2022 and 309,996 in 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said weak economic growth often leads to a reduced number of births. In 2023, ABS data shows gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 1.5 percent. Despite the population growing by 2.5 percent in 2023, GDP on a per capita basis went into negative territory, down one percent over the 12 months.
“Birth rates provide insight into long-term population growth as well as the current confidence of Australian families,” said Mr Rawnsley. “We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the period of economic stagflation in the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”
Mr Rawnsley said many Australian couples delayed starting a family while the pandemic played out in 2020. The number of births fell from 305,832 in 2019 to 294,369 in 2020. Then in 2021, strong employment and vast amounts of stimulus money, along with high household savings due to lockdowns, gave couples better financial means to have a baby. This led to a rebound in births.
However, the re-opening of the global economy in 2022 led to soaring inflation. By the start of 2023, the Australian consumer price index (CPI) had risen to its highest level since 1990 at 7.8 percent per annum. By that stage, the Reserve Bank had already commenced an aggressive rate-hiking strategy to fight inflation and had raised the cash rate every month between May and December 2022.
Five more rate hikes during 2023 put further pressure on couples with mortgages and put the brakes on family formation. “This combination of the pandemic and rapid economic changes explains the spike and subsequent sharp decline in birth rates we have observed over the past four years,” Mr Rawnsley said.
The impact of high costs of living on couples’ decision to have a baby is highlighted in births data for the capital cities. KPMG estimates there were 60,860 births in Sydney in 2023, down 8.6 percent from 2019. There were 56,270 births in Melbourne, down 7.3 percent. In Perth, there were 25,020 births, down 6 percent, while in Brisbane there were 30,250 births, down 4.3 percent. Canberra was the only capital city where there was no fall in the number of births in 2023 compared to 2019.
“CPI growth in Canberra has been slightly subdued compared to that in other major cities, and the economic outlook has remained strong,” Mr Rawnsley said. “This means families have not been hurting as much as those in other capital cities, and in turn, we’ve seen a stabilisation of births in the ACT.”
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