At Least 7 Major Economies Will Hit Recession in the Next 12 Months
According to the latest report by research firm Nomura.
According to the latest report by research firm Nomura.
Six major economies will join the U.S. in falling to recession in the coming year, according to new research by Nomura.
The euro area, the U.K., Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada will also see economic growth contract, economists led by Rob Subbaraman wrote in a note. Tightening monetary policy, faster inflation, and worsening financial conditions are the main reasons for the downturn, they said.
Furthermore, the world economy’s “synchronised growth slowdown” means that countries won’t be able to rely on exports to pull them back into expansion.
China, the world’s second-biggest economy, may avoid another economic contraction after emerging from one in the second quarter of this year. The recession in the U.S. and the euro area will start in the fourth quarter, the team of economists wrote.
Central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, will remain focused on bringing down inflation even if it sacrifices economic expansion. Inflation will nevertheless remain sticky as price pressures have broadened after a surge in commodity prices.
“We expect central banks to err on the side of tightening too much than too little in order to regain their credibility,” the note said. After raising the key rate as high as 3.75% in February, the Fed will start cutting rates by 0.25 point a meeting starting in September 2023. The Nomura economists’ forecast also includes rate reductions from Australia, the U.K., Canada, South Korea, and the euro area.
Reprinted by permission of Barron’s. Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: July 4, 2022.
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New research suggests spending 40 percent of household income on loan repayments is the new normal
Requiring more than 30 percent of household income to service a home loan has long been considered the benchmark for ‘housing stress’. Yet research shows it is becoming the new normal. The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report reveals home loans on only 17 percent of homes are ‘serviceable’ if serviceability is limited to 30 percent of the median national household income.
Based on 40 percent of household income, just 37 percent of properties would be serviceable on a mortgage covering 80 percent of the purchase price. ANZ CoreLogic suggest 40 may be the new 30 when it comes to home loan serviceability. “Looking ahead, there is little prospect for the mortgage serviceability indicator to move back into the 30 percent range any time soon,” says the report.
“This is because the cash rate is not expected to be cut until late 2024, and home values have continued to rise, even amid relatively high interest rate settings.” ANZ CoreLogic estimate that home loan rates would have to fall to about 4.7 percent to bring serviceability under 40 percent.
CoreLogic has broken down the actual household income required to service a home loan on a 6.27 percent interest rate for an 80 percent loan based on current median house and unit values in each capital city. As expected, affordability is worst in the most expensive property market, Sydney.
Sydney
Sydney’s median house price is $1,414,229 and the median unit price is $839,344.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $211,456 to afford a home loan for a house and $125,499 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $120,554.
Melbourne
Melbourne’s median house price is $935,049 and the median apartment price is $612,906.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $139,809 to afford a home loan for a house and $91,642 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $110,324.
Brisbane
Brisbane’s median house price is $909,988 and the median unit price is $587,793.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $136,062 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,887 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $107,243.
Adelaide
Adelaide’s median house price is $785,971 and the median apartment price is $504,799.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $117,519 to afford a home loan for a house and $75,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,806.
Perth
Perth’s median house price is $735,276 and the median unit price is $495,360.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $109,939 to afford a home loan for a house and $74,066 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $108,057.
Hobart
Hobart’s median house price is $692,951 and the median apartment price is $522,258.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $103,610 to afford a home loan for a house and $78,088 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,515.
Darwin
Darwin’s median house price is $573,498 and the median unit price is $367,716.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $85,750 to afford a home loan for a house and $54,981 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $126,193.
Canberra
Canberra’s median house price is $964,136 and the median apartment price is $585,057.
Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $144,158 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $137,760.
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