At Least 7 Major Economies Will Hit Recession in the Next 12 Months
According to the latest report by research firm Nomura.
< 1 min
Copyright 2020, Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. LEARN MORE
Six major economies will join the U.S. in falling to recession in the coming year, according to new research by Nomura.
The euro area, the U.K., Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada will also see economic growth contract, economists led by Rob Subbaraman wrote in a note. Tightening monetary policy, faster inflation, and worsening financial conditions are the main reasons for the downturn, they said.
Furthermore, the world economy’s “synchronised growth slowdown” means that countries won’t be able to rely on exports to pull them back into expansion.
China, the world’s second-biggest economy, may avoid another economic contraction after emerging from one in the second quarter of this year. The recession in the U.S. and the euro area will start in the fourth quarter, the team of economists wrote.
Central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, will remain focused on bringing down inflation even if it sacrifices economic expansion. Inflation will nevertheless remain sticky as price pressures have broadened after a surge in commodity prices.
“We expect central banks to err on the side of tightening too much than too little in order to regain their credibility,” the note said. After raising the key rate as high as 3.75% in February, the Fed will start cutting rates by 0.25 point a meeting starting in September 2023. The Nomura economists’ forecast also includes rate reductions from Australia, the U.K., Canada, South Korea, and the euro area.
Reprinted by permission of Barron’s. Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: July 4, 2022.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
Amid looming rate rises, there are reasons to be cheerful as mortgage holders head into 2023
2 min
Mortgage holders should brace themselves for more pain as the Reserve Bank of Australia board prepares to meet tomorrow for the first time this year.
Most economists and the major banks are predicting a rise of 25 basis points will be announced, although the Commonwealth Bank suggests that the RBA may take the unusual step of a 40 basis point rise to bring the interest rate up to a more conventional 3.5 percent. This would allow the RBA to step back from further rate rises for the next few months as it assesses the impact of tightening monetary policy on the economy.
The decision by the RBA board to make consecutive rate rises since April last year is an attempt to wrestle inflation down to a more manageable 3 or 4 percent. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reports that the inflation rate rose to 7.8 percent over the December quarter, the highest it has been since 1990, reflected in higher prices for food, fuel and construction.
Higher interest rates have coincided with falling home values, which Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee says are down 6.1 percent in capital cities since peaking in March 2022. The pain has been greatest in Sydney, where prices have dropped 10.8 percent since February last year. Melbourne and Canberra recorded similar, albeit smaller falls, while capitals like Adelaide, which saw property prices fall 1.8 percent, are less affected.
Although prices may continue to decline, Ms Conisbee (below) said there are signs the pace is slowing and that inflation has peaked.
“December inflation came in at 7.8 per cent with construction, travel and electricity costs being the biggest drivers. It is likely that we are now at peak,” Ms Conisbee said.
“Many of the drivers of high prices are starting to be resolved. Shipping costs are now down almost 90 per cent from their October 2021 peak (as measured by the Baltic Dry Index), while crude oil prices have almost halved from March 2022. China is back open and international migration has started up again.
“Even construction costs look like they are close to plateau. Importantly, US inflation has pulled back from its peak of 9.1 per cent in June to 6.5 per cent in December, with many of the drivers of inflation in this country similar to Australia.”
From faulty family villa to modern beach house.
