At Least 7 Major Economies Will Hit Recession in the Next 12 Months

Six major economies will join the U.S. in falling to recession in the coming year, according to new research by Nomura.

The euro area, the U.K., Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada will also see economic growth contract, economists led by Rob Subbaraman wrote in a note. Tightening monetary policy, faster inflation, and worsening financial conditions are the main reasons for the downturn, they said.

Furthermore, the world economy’s “synchronised growth slowdown” means that countries won’t be able to rely on exports to pull them back into expansion.

China, the world’s second-biggest economy, may avoid another economic contraction after emerging from one in the second quarter of this year. The recession in the U.S. and the euro area will start in the fourth quarter, the team of economists wrote.

Central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, will remain focused on bringing down inflation even if it sacrifices economic expansion. Inflation will nevertheless remain sticky as price pressures have broadened after a surge in commodity prices.

“We expect central banks to err on the side of tightening too much than too little in order to regain their credibility,” the note said. After raising the key rate as high as 3.75% in February, the Fed will start cutting rates by 0.25 point a meeting starting in September 2023. The Nomura economists’ forecast also includes rate reductions from Australia, the U.K., Canada, South Korea, and the euro area.

New research from Knight Frank’s International Waterfront Index shows waterfront properties are costing more than double their inland counterparts in Sydney while in Melbourne waterside properties attract a 40% premium.

Australia’s coastline attracts some of the highest waterfront premiums in the world with Sydney topping the index — an average premium of 121% — compared to an equivalent home set away from the water.

Auckland ranked second on the list of 17 international locations — a premium of 76%. The list saw Gold Coast (71%), Perth (69%) and the Cap d’Antibes (59%) on the French Riviera round out the top 5.

Australia continued to feature prominently in the research with Brisbane’s waterfront premium coming in at 55%, with Melbourne also in the top 10 at 39%.

According to Knight Frank Australia’s head of residential research, Michelle Ciesielski, there has always been strong appetite for Sydney’s waterfront homes.

Australia’s luxury residential market has advanced, it lacks the depth of prestige markets in more established global cities said Cieselski.

“As a result, our Australian cities can achieve a significantly higher premium on the waterfront compared to a similar property inland without access to, or a view of, water,” she said.

“Also, Australia is known for its balmy outdoor lifestyle, so many buyers in this super-prime space are willing to pay a premium to secure the ideal position along the waterfront.”

The data also suggests that beachfront homes were most desirable, commanding a premium of 63% compared to harbour locations fetching 62% premium and coastal homes with a 40% premium.

At Least 7 Major Economies Will Hit Recession in the Next 12 Months

According to the latest report by research firm Nomura.