Australian Consumer Confidence Drops To Recessionary Levels
The percentage of respondents who expect good times for the economy over the next five years dropped to 10%.
The percentage of respondents who expect good times for the economy over the next five years dropped to 10%.
Australian consumer confidence dropped 7.6% last week to the lowest levels since the economy experienced a damaging recession at the start of the 1990s, according to a survey by ANZ Bank and pollster Roy Morgan.
ANZ head of Australian economics David Plank said news of a 50 basis-point rise in official interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia last week surprised many and sharply dented confidence.
Confidence is at its lowest since early April 2020, during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. Outside of the pandemic, consumer confidence hasn’t been this low since January 1991, the midst of the early 1990s recession, Mr Plank added.
Reflecting the dire state of sentiment, the percentage of respondents who expect good times for the economy over the next five years dropped to 10%, its lowest level on record, he said.
So far this year household spending has been resilient despite the softness in consumer confidence. The RBA, for one, will be looking closely to see whether this divergence can continue, Mr Plank added.
Weekly inflation expectations decreased 0.1 percentage point to 5.6%, while its four-week moving average was unchanged at 5.5%, the survey showed.
Sentiment around current financial conditions dropped 1.0%, while future financial conditions fell 10.1%. Current economic conditions declined 7.2% after a 9.4% loss the week before. Future economic conditions were down 4.6%, according to the survey.
Consumers also reported a 14.4% drop in their willingness to buy a major household item.
The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,454 interviews conducted online and over the telephone during the week to Sunday.
Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: June 15, 2022.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
China’s economic recovery isn’t gaining the momentum money managers are awaiting.
Data from China Beige Book show that the economic green shoots glimpsed in August didn’t sprout further in September. Job growth and consumer spending faltered, while orders for exports came in at the lowest level since March, according to a monthly flash survey of more than 1,300 companies the independent research firm released Thursday evening.
Consumers’ initial revenge spending after Covid restrictions eased could be waning, the results indicate, with the biggest pullbacks in food and luxury items. While travel remains a bright spot ahead of the country’s Mid-Autumn Festival, hospitality firms and chain restaurants saw a sharp decline in sales, according to the survey.
And although policy makers have shown their willingness to stabilise the property market, the data showed another month of slower sales and lower prices in both the residential and commercial sectors.
Even more troubling are the continued problems at Evergrande Group, which has scuttled a plan to restructure itself, raising the risk of a liquidation that could further destabilise the property market and hit confidence about the economy. The embattled developer said it was notified that the company’s chairman Hui Ka Yan, who is under police watch, is suspected of committing criminal offences.
Nicole Kornitzer, who manages the $750 million Buffalo International Fund (ticker: BUIIX), worries about a “recession of expectations” as confidence continues to take a hit, discouraging people and businesses from spending. Kornitzer has only a fraction of the fund’s assets in China at the moment.
Before allocating more to China, Kornitzer said, she needs to see at least a couple quarters of improvement in spending, with consumption broadening beyond travel and dining out. Signs of stabilisation in the housing market would be encouraging as well, she said.
She isn’t alone in her concern about spending. Vivian Lin Thurston, manager for William Blair’s emerging markets and China strategies, said confidence among both consumers and small- and medium-enterprises is still suffering.
“Everyone is still out and about but they don’t buy as much or buy lower-priced goods so retail sales aren’t recovering as strongly and lower-income consumers are still under pressure because their employment and income aren’t back to pre-COVID levels,” said Thurston, who just returned from a visit to China.
“A lot of small- and medium- enterprises are struggling to stay afloat and are definitely taking a wait-and-see approach on whether they can expand. A lot went out of business during Covid and aren’t back yet. So far the stimulus measures have been anemic.”
Beijing needs to do more, especially to stabilise the property sector, Thurston said. The view on the ground is that more help could come in the fourth quarter—or once the Federal Reserve is done raising rates.
The fact that the Fed is raising rates while Beijing is cutting them is already putting pressure on the renminbi. If policy makers in China wait until the Fed is done, that would alleviate one source of pressure before their fiscal stimulus adds its own.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual