Australians more mindful with spending as belt tightening moves another notch

Australian consumers are strapping themselves in for a bumpy ride, as they focus on key spending areas, new data reveals.

In signs that consumers are being more mindful with their money, the newly launched CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) Index shows that spending in July increased in areas such as household goods, transport, hospitality, education, insurance and communications.

This was offset by a decline in spending on more discretionary areas, such as recreation and food and beverage goods, as well as utilities, motor vehicles and household services.

The report showed that South Australia experienced the strongest growth of all Australian states in July, up 1.9 percent, followed by Victoria and NSW, both up 1.7 percent. However, over the past year, Western Australia came out on top, with spending increased by 3.5 percent, followed by the Northern Territory and South Australia, both at 3.4 percent. Over that same time period, spending fell in NSW, down -0.2 percent, with Victoria recording a fall of -0.3 percent.

CBA Chief Economist Stephen Halmarick said a dramatic hike in interest rates since May 2022 was clearly having a major impact on household budgets.

“The effects of 400bp of RBA interest rate increases is clearly reflected in a significant overall slowdown in household spending as measured by the CommBank HSI Index,” he said.

“Monetary policy is now restrictive and financial conditions will continue to tighten in the months ahead on the lagged effect of RBA interest rate increases and the fixed rate mortgage refinancing task. We continue to expect household spending to weaken further over the remainder of 2023 and 2024.

“While the RBA is likely to hold the cash rate at 4.1 percent for an extended period, we expect it will start lowering interest rates in March next year to 3.1 percent by the end of 2024 – in response to a slowing economy, inflation closer to target and a softer labour market.”

The CommBank Household Spending Insights Index has been compiled using payments data from about seven million CBA customers, equivalent to about 30 percent of all consumer transactions in Australia, to track latest trends across 12 categories in consumer spending. Mr Halmarick said the CBA payments data is now aligned to Australian Bureau of Statistics spending categories to be nationally representative and seasonally adjusted.

The boom in casual footware ushered in by the pandemic has ended, a potential problem for companies such as Adidas that benefited from the shift to less formal clothing, Bank of America says.

The casual footwear business has been on the ropes since mid-2023 as people began returning to office.

Analyst Thierry Cota wrote that while most downcycles have lasted one to two years over the past two decades or so, the current one is different.

It “shows no sign of abating” and there is “no turning point in sight,” he said.

Adidas and Nike alone account for almost 60% of revenue in the casual footwear industry, Cota estimated, so the sector’s slower growth could be especially painful for them as opposed to brands that have a stronger performance-shoe segment. Adidas may just have it worse than Nike.

Cota downgraded Adidas stock to Underperform from Buy on Tuesday and slashed his target for the stock price to €160 (about $187) from €213. He doesn’t have a rating for Nike stock.

Shares of Adidas listed on the German stock exchange fell 4.5% Tuesday to €162.25. Nike stock was down 1.2%.

Adidas didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Cota sees trouble for Adidas both in the short and long term.

Adidas’ lifestyle segment, which includes the Gazelles and Sambas brands, has been one of the company’s fastest-growing business, but there are signs growth is waning.

Lifestyle sales increased at a 10% annual pace in Adidas’ third quarter, down from 13% in the second quarter.

The analyst now predicts Adidas’ organic sales will grow by a 5% annual rate starting in 2027, down from his prior forecast of 7.5%.

The slower revenue growth will likewise weigh on profitability, Cota said, predicting that margins on earnings before interest and taxes will decline back toward the company’s long-term average after several quarters of outperforming. That could result in a cut to earnings per share.

Adidas stock had a rough 2025. Shares shed 33% in the past 12 months, weighed down by investor concerns over how tariffs, slowing demand, and increased competition would affect revenue growth.

Nike stock fell 9% throughout the period, reflecting both the company’s struggles with demand and optimism over a turnaround plan CEO Elliott Hill rolled out in late 2024.

Investors’ confidence has faded following Nike’s December earnings report, which suggested that a sustained recovery is still several quarters away. Just how many remains anyone’s guess.

But if Adidas’ challenges continue, as Cota believes they will, it could open up some space for Nike to claw back any market share it lost to its rival.

Investors should keep in mind, however, that the field has grown increasingly crowded in the past five years. Upstarts such as On Holding and Hoka also present a formidable challenge to the sector’s legacy brands.

Shares of On and Deckers Outdoor , Hoka’s parent company, fell 11% and 48%, respectively, in 2025, but analysts are upbeat about both companies’ fundamentals as the new year begins.

The battle of the sneakers is just getting started.

Australians more mindful with spending as belt tightening moves another notch

Consumers are focusing on key areas of spending as the weight of interest rate payments impact budgets

The pandemic-fuelled love affair with casual footwear is fading, with Bank of America warning the downturn shows no sign of easing.