Australia’s Job Market Remains Tight in July

SYDNEY—Australia’s unemployment rate rose in July to its highest level since late 2021 even as employment jumped by much more than expected over the month, with a record number of people participating in the labor market.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.

The economy created a further 58,200 jobs over the month, with full-time employment rising by 60,500, the ABS said. The employment creation was about three times that expected by economists.

The apparent mismatch in the data is explained by a rise in the labor market participation rate to a record high 67.1% in July from 66.9% in June.

Overall, the data suggests the job market remains tight, which will feed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s fears about the availability of labor, wage pressures and sticky core inflation over the coming quarters.

RBA Gov. Michele Bullock ruled out an interest-rate cut over the next six months citing concerns that inflation remains stubbornly high, while firms are reporting the job market is still tight.

The employment-to-population ratio rose by 0.1 percentage point to 64.3%, indicating employment growth was faster than population growth, the ABS said.

“Although the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage point in each of the past two months, the record high participation rate and near record high employment-to-population ratio show that there continues to be a high number of people in jobs, and looking for and finding jobs,” the ABS said in a statement.

The number of people unemployed increased to 637,000 in July, the highest it has been since November 2021, but it remains around 70,000 below its pre-pandemic level, ABS added.

Seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked rose by 0.4%, in line with the 0.4% increase in employment, the ABS said.

The boom in casual footware ushered in by the pandemic has ended, a potential problem for companies such as Adidas that benefited from the shift to less formal clothing, Bank of America says.

The casual footwear business has been on the ropes since mid-2023 as people began returning to office.

Analyst Thierry Cota wrote that while most downcycles have lasted one to two years over the past two decades or so, the current one is different.

It “shows no sign of abating” and there is “no turning point in sight,” he said.

Adidas and Nike alone account for almost 60% of revenue in the casual footwear industry, Cota estimated, so the sector’s slower growth could be especially painful for them as opposed to brands that have a stronger performance-shoe segment. Adidas may just have it worse than Nike.

Cota downgraded Adidas stock to Underperform from Buy on Tuesday and slashed his target for the stock price to €160 (about $187) from €213. He doesn’t have a rating for Nike stock.

Shares of Adidas listed on the German stock exchange fell 4.5% Tuesday to €162.25. Nike stock was down 1.2%.

Adidas didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Cota sees trouble for Adidas both in the short and long term.

Adidas’ lifestyle segment, which includes the Gazelles and Sambas brands, has been one of the company’s fastest-growing business, but there are signs growth is waning.

Lifestyle sales increased at a 10% annual pace in Adidas’ third quarter, down from 13% in the second quarter.

The analyst now predicts Adidas’ organic sales will grow by a 5% annual rate starting in 2027, down from his prior forecast of 7.5%.

The slower revenue growth will likewise weigh on profitability, Cota said, predicting that margins on earnings before interest and taxes will decline back toward the company’s long-term average after several quarters of outperforming. That could result in a cut to earnings per share.

Adidas stock had a rough 2025. Shares shed 33% in the past 12 months, weighed down by investor concerns over how tariffs, slowing demand, and increased competition would affect revenue growth.

Nike stock fell 9% throughout the period, reflecting both the company’s struggles with demand and optimism over a turnaround plan CEO Elliott Hill rolled out in late 2024.

Investors’ confidence has faded following Nike’s December earnings report, which suggested that a sustained recovery is still several quarters away. Just how many remains anyone’s guess.

But if Adidas’ challenges continue, as Cota believes they will, it could open up some space for Nike to claw back any market share it lost to its rival.

Investors should keep in mind, however, that the field has grown increasingly crowded in the past five years. Upstarts such as On Holding and Hoka also present a formidable challenge to the sector’s legacy brands.

Shares of On and Deckers Outdoor , Hoka’s parent company, fell 11% and 48%, respectively, in 2025, but analysts are upbeat about both companies’ fundamentals as the new year begins.

The battle of the sneakers is just getting started.

Australia’s Job Market Remains Tight in July

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June

The pandemic-fuelled love affair with casual footwear is fading, with Bank of America warning the downturn shows no sign of easing.