Australia’s Unemployment Rate Continues Steady Rise

SYDNEY—Australia’s unemployment rate continued to rise in October, potentially ruling out a further hike in interest rates in December.

The jobless rate climbed to 3.7% in October from 3.6% in September, despite employment jumping by 55,000 over the month, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.

The rise in the unemployment rate was expected by economists, but the jump in employment was more than twice the consensus estimate for a 20,000 increase.

The labor force participation rate rose to 67.0% in October from 66.8% in September, the ABS said.

The solid gain in employment in October follows news on Wednesday that wages grew at their fastest pace in more than a quarter of a century in the third quarter as a big rise in the minimum wage helped drive broad strength in new wage agreements.

Still, neither the employment gains nor the rising momentum in wages are likely to be enough to spark a further rise in interest rates at the RBA’s next policy meeting in early December.

The central bank is likely to look at the level of the official cash rate again in February when it reviews its economic forecasts and has seen another quarter of inflation data.

The RBA raised interest rates last week for the first time since June and left open the prospect of further increases if inflation pressures remain resilient. The central bank also revised up its forecasts for inflation in 2024 and 2025.

“It’s a very solid jobs report, highlighting continued tightness in the labor market and illustrating the dilemma the RBA faces as it looks to end its rate hike cycle in line with its global central bank peers,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.

“While we don’t think today’s jobs [data] will prompt the RBA to raise rates next month, the RBA will need to see labor market and inflation data ease in the coming months to avoid having to raise rates early in 2024,” he added.

The large increase in employment in October followed a small increase in September of around 8,000 people, the ABS said.

The annual growth rate in hours worked fell to 1.7% in October, down from growth of around 5.0% in the middle of the year, showing that the job market is slowly losing momentum.

The underemployment rate remained at 6.3% in October, the ABS said. While this was 0.4 percentage points higher than October last year, the result was still around 2.4 percentage points lower than before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Australian shares fell on Thursday as Wall Street weakness, rising oil and persistent rate concerns weighed on most of the market.

The S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.72 per cent to 8,702. The All Ordinaries lost 0.66 per cent to finish at 8,897. Mining stocks were hit particularly hard, while real estate also dragged on the index.

Energy was the notable exception, gaining more than one per cent as Brent crude traded above US$103 a barrel. Oil had moved higher amid uncertainty surrounding potential US diesel-export restrictions and broader geopolitical supply risks. The move supported energy producers but renewed concern about inflation inputs across transport and the wider economy.

Gold shares were weak even as spot bullion remained historically elevated. The All Ordinaries Gold index fell about 2.25 per cent, showing that equity performance can diverge from the commodity because of valuation, currency, operating and company-specific factors.

Zip was a prominent loser, falling 11.38 per cent after the company reported short sales after the previous close. Nine Entertainment also weakened after UBS analysts warned of near-term revenue challenges associated with its advertising-supported subscription tier.

Premier Investments led larger winners despite caution about the retail environment. Breville, in which Premier owns a significant stake, also appeared among leading movers. In the broader ASX 300 screen, Myer gained 11.43 per cent and MAAS Group rose 7.93 per cent, while Lotus Resources fell 10.53 per cent. These percentage moves should be checked against company announcements and trading liquidity before attributing causes.

The Australian dollar was broadly flat at US70.38 cents. Spot gold was around US$4,280 an ounce, Brent crude approximately US$103.08 a barrel and iron ore near US$96.90 a tonne late in the session.

The rate outlook remains the central domestic catalyst. Labour-market weakness has not eliminated the possibility of an RBA increase next week, leaving banks, listed property and other rate-sensitive sectors exposed to changing expectations.

Market dashboard

S&P/ASX 200: 8,702, down 0.72 per cent.

All Ordinaries: 8,897, down 0.66 per cent.

Best sector: Energy, up more than one per cent.

Weakest areas: Real estate and materials were the major drags; confirm final sector percentages before publication.

Material winner: Premier Investments led the large-company gainers. Confirm its final closing move from the ASX before publication.

Material loser: Zip, down 11.38 per cent.

ASX 300 percentage leader: Myer, up 11.43 per cent.

ASX 300 percentage laggard: Zip, down 11.38 per cent.

AUD/USD: Approximately US$0.7038, broadly flat.