Best Stock-Fund Managers of 2022
In a brutal year for investing, a handful of stock pickers managed to post positive returns. The winner was up nearly 32%.
In a brutal year for investing, a handful of stock pickers managed to post positive returns. The winner was up nearly 32%.
Well at least it wasn’t as dreadful as the Great Depression. Or even the financial crisis of 2008.
But for any mutual-fund manager trying to cope with the sea of red ink that flooded financial markets in 2022, that’s meagre consolation. In a year when soaring interest rates and sky-high inflation left the S&P 500 index with a 19% loss and triggered an even worse year for the bond market, an estimated $8.2 trillion of stock-market wealth in the U.S. simply evaporated.
Even most of those value- and income-focused mutual-fund managers who “outperformed” the broad index did so by confining their losses to the single digits—little comfort for investors.
Indeed, of the 1,410 actively managed mutual funds that met the criteria for inclusion in the Winners’ Circle, The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of top-performing stock managers on a 12-month basis, a mere 40 wrapped up 2022 in positive territory. The average loss for the whole group, according to data provided by Morningstar Direct, was 18.2%.
To outperform in 2022 required a fund’s manager to have taken outsize positions in the energy sector—the only one of the 10 industries that make up the S&P 500 to record a gain in 2022. In fact, the magnitude of the rally in energy resulted in the sector coming within a whisker of doubling in its weight within that large-cap market index, hitting 5.23%.
And energy bets were what powered three Kinetics funds to top positions in the Winners’ Circle—not only the winning fund, but the runner-up and the No. 4 finisher.
“It seems as if we’re always a contrarian, but recently that has been working for us,” says James Davolos, a portfolio manager at Horizon Kinetics LLC, who serves on the investment committee for the three Kinetics funds. Between 30% and 60% of the assets of No. 1 fund Kinetics Small Cap Opportunities Fund (KSCOX), runner-up Kinetics Paradigm Fund (WWNPX) and No. 4 finisher Kinetics Market Opportunities Fund (KMKNX) were invested in energy-related holdings over the course of 2022, he says.
Kinetics Small Cap took home the crown with its 31.9% gain. The Paradigm fund gained 29.2%, and Market Opportunities gained nearly 15%.
To qualify for inclusion in this Winners’ Circle survey, funds must be actively managed U.S.-stock funds with more than $50 million in assets and a record of three years or more, as well as meet a handful of other criteria. The survey excludes index and sector funds, funds that employ leverage strategies and most quantitative funds. The results are calculated by Morningstar Direct.
Important to note: These are stock funds that outperformed in specific market environments, and may have elements that make them unsuitable for some investors, ranging from their fee structure to their longer-term performance or volatility.
Mr. Davolos says he has no plans to abandon his highly concentrated and contrarian investment approach with the dawn of a new calendar year.
“The world isn’t going to quickly revert back to the way it was in 2018 or 2019,” he says. “We think we’re in the early stages of a transition to a five- or seven-year transition period. We were positioned for that in areas like energy and other hard assets that we thought would be more resilient. And we believe that most businesses will continue to face a difficult operating environment and a compression in their profit margins.”
That’s why Mr. Davolos and his team have designed the Kinetics portfolios to have hefty overweight positions in companies and industries that he believes will be able to demonstrate more-resilient profit margins. Energy royalty companies—and especially Texas Pacific Land Corp., which represented anywhere from 50.9% of assets in the Market Opportunities Fund to as much as 64.8% of the Paradigm fund’s holdings—will remain a focus, he says. Texas Pacific is one of the biggest landowners in Texas and funnels oil-and-gas royalties that it earns from those drilling on its land directly to investors.
But Mr. Davolos is also looking for opportunities to invest in other areas he believes will be equally robust in face of economic headwinds, whose stocks don’t reflect that potential.
One sector that he finds of particular interest is precious metals, and once again, he’s emphasising royalty income as a way to profit from what he sees as strong fundamentals for the sector with lower risk.
“Gold, in particular, is likely to do well in a period of draconian risk aversion and higher or rising interest rates, as people look for a store of value,” says Mr. Davolos. He also expects precious metals to respond positively to any geopolitical shocks or uncertainty, just as energy did in 2022. But he prefers to avoid exploration and production companies and the cyclicality and risk inherent in the profit cycle of these businesses, and instead looks to companies like Franco-Nevada Corp., another royalty play. “Streams of royalty income are more predictable and rewarding,” he insists.
While none of the top-performing Kinetics funds could be described as being diversified, Mr. Davolos also is keeping an eye open for opportunities to add other inflation-resistant, value-priced securities to these portfolios. For instance, noting that “government contracts are likely to be immune to inflation,” he has established and built on positions in CACI International Inc., a defence contractor that emphasises communications, cybersecurity and other technology services. He also likes Brookfield Asset Management as a way to indirectly profit from government spending on infrastructure, and has hung on to holdings in financial exchanges like CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. “Any company that provides an intermediary service—connecting two counterparties that are trying to manage their own risks—will remain critical” to the economy, he argues.
Unsurprisingly, other top-performing managers in the 2022 year-end Winners’ Circle also beat the odds and triumphed by bucking conventional wisdom.
The year’s third-place finisher is one of the smallest funds in the survey. Schwartz Value Focused Fund (RCMFX) may have only $51.7 million in assets, but it turned in an impressive return for its investors, wrapping up the year with a 21.2% gain. And the fund is managed by Schwartz Investment Counsel in Plymouth, Mich., which oversees a universe of other portfolios, including Ave Maria Value Fund (AVEMX), the Catholic-values fund that ended the year with a 4.2% advance, putting it in 11th place in our survey.
Both funds are overseen by a team headed by George Schwartz, the founder, chairman and CEO of Schwartz Investment Counsel. He and son Tim, the firm’s chief investment officer, began adding energy stocks to Schwartz Value a few years ago, just as the pressure on pension funds and other mutual funds to divest their fossil-fuel holdings began to take effect.
“Our focus is on buying out-of-favour stocks when they are cheap, and when we believe they have a great recovery potential,” the elder Mr. Schwartz says. “When the energy sector had gotten so depressed it was ridiculous, we bought those stocks aggressively.” By the end of 2022, 41% of Schwartz Value’s assets were invested in an array of energy companies. “That decision has been a big boon for us,” he says.
Like Mr. Davolos, Mr. Schwartz is a fan of Texas Pacific Land, by far the fund’s single largest holding at 27.6% of fund assets. But he adopts a more, ahem, catholic (as in “all encompassing”) approach to energy investing, allocating capital to major global integrated producers and refiners like Chevron Corp., exploration-and-production companies such as Devon Energy Corp. and service companies like Schlumberger NV.
And he, too, is casting a (slightly) wider net. While hanging on to precious metals investments (Franco-Nevada and producer Barrick Gold) and what he sees as core value holdings in Berkshire Hathaway, last year Mr. Schwartz added new positions in an array of specialty manufacturing companies like A.O. Smith Corp. (water treatment and heating) and Yeti Holdings Inc. (drink coolers, drinkware and related gear). One of his largest new holdings is in RH, formerly known as Restoration Hardware, the specialty retailer of luxury furniture. “We like companies that are out of the mainstream,” he says, adding that RH shares now change hands for 15% more than the average price Schwartz Counsel paid to establish its position starting in September 2022.
Scott Barbee, manager of the No. 5 fund in the Winners’ Circle, Aegis Value Fund (AVALX), echoes his fellow outperformers in crediting the energy sector with his portfolio’s 2022 return of 10.5%.
“Back in the early stages of the pandemic, when investors were flocking to the big-name technology stocks, energy stood out like a sore thumb,” he says. Selling pressure from sustainable-investing funds and others trying to avoid fossil fuels “frightened everyone away from the sector.” But Mr. Barbee, who seeks out cyclically depressed businesses that he believes are poised for a rebound, opted to invest in the sector beginning in early 2021. “They were trading cheaply, they had long-lived asset bases, and their balance sheets are in amazing condition,” he says. The latter consideration became particularly important as interest rates began to soar last year; companies with lower debt levels remain insulated from this source of pressure.
By the end of 2022, Aegis Value had 37% of its assets invested in the fossil-fuels area, in holdings ranging from coal producer Hallador Energy Co., to International Petroleum Corp. and Akita Drilling Ltd.
“The tailwinds for this sector are likely to be with us for some time,” Mr. Barbee says. But he’s taking some of his energy holdings off the table, and redeploying that capital into other sectors. He added to the fund’s exposure to the metals mining industry (its largest position has been copper giant Amerigo Resources Ltd.) and boosted its stake in precious metals by investing in Centerra Gold Inc.—adding to a list of gold producers that already included Orezone Gold Corp. and Equinox Gold Corp. “This is another neglected corner of the market, and we believe our holdings will do well at current gold prices and phenomenally if gold goes higher” in response to inflation and interest-rate trends, he says.
None of the top-performing managers of 2022 voiced much optimism about the likelihood of seeing a broad market recovery in 2023.
“How much will be needed to bring inflation under control?” says Mr. Barbee, referring to the prospect of further interest-rate increases. “That’s why we emphasise companies with strong balance sheets, since they’re more likely to get through whatever we’ve got coming.”
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Technology and semiconductor shares fell sharply as investors questioned the debt financing the AI infrastructure boom and confronted higher rates and Chinese competition.
Technology and semiconductor shares fell sharply as investors questioned the debt financing the AI infrastructure boom and confronted higher rates and Chinese competition.
A sharp technology sell-off has exposed a new anxiety on global markets: whether the enormous borrowing behind the artificial-intelligence infrastructure boom can generate sufficient returns as interest rates rise and Chinese competition intensifies.
The artificial-intelligence investment boom has powered technology shares, semiconductor manufacturers and data-centre operators to extraordinary heights. Last week, investors were given a reminder that much of this expansion is being built with borrowed money.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 4.5 per cent over the week ended October 16, its weakest performance since late June. Semiconductor shares suffered an even deeper correction, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index losing about 11.4 per cent.
The selling spread quickly through global markets. Micron Technology fell 14.6 per cent over the week, while South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropped approximately 18 per cent and 24 per cent respectively.
This was more than a routine bout of profit-taking. Investors were reassessing three interconnected risks: higher interest rates, the rapidly expanding debt burden attached to AI infrastructure and the prospect of stronger competition from Chinese memory-chip manufacturers.
Artificial intelligence requires a physical infrastructure network of enormous scale. Data centres must be built, advanced processors purchased, power supplies secured and cooling systems installed before customers begin generating meaningful revenue from them.
Technology companies are increasingly supplementing their own cash with corporate bonds, syndicated loans, equipment leases, private credit and project-level financing.
JPMorgan describes the emerging funding model as a combination of conventional corporate borrowing and project finance tied to individual data-centre assets. In Australia, the Reserve Bank estimates that syndicated loans accounted for approximately three-quarters of data-centre financing during 2025 and 2026 to date.
The numbers are becoming large enough to affect broader credit markets. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has cited Wall Street estimates suggesting AI-related investment-grade bond issuance could approach US$300 billion in 2026 alone.
That borrowing is not automatically problematic. Debt can be an efficient way to finance long-lived infrastructure when future revenue is sufficiently predictable. The concern is that AI technology, customer demand and computing economics are changing much faster than the repayment schedules attached to the assets.
A data centre financed today may carry debt for years. Investors must therefore make assumptions about future utilisation rates, electricity prices, chip performance, customer concentration and the amount businesses will ultimately pay for AI computing.
When interest rates rise, those assumptions become less forgiving.
September’s US inflation data intensified the pressure. Consumer prices increased 3.7 per cent over the year, ahead of market expectations and up from 3.4 per cent in August.
The hotter reading reduced confidence that interest rates would fall quickly and pushed bond yields higher. That matters particularly for companies whose valuations depend on profits expected well into the future, as well as highly leveraged infrastructure operators that may need to refinance.
CoreWeave has emerged as a closely watched test case. The specialist cloud-computing company has accumulated substantial debt and lease obligations to build AI capacity, while relying on a concentrated group of large technology customers.
Its shares fell sharply during the sell-off, while the cost of insuring its debt against default climbed. CoreWeave has argued that its contracted backlog more than covers its obligations and that financial markets do not always understand its business model. Nevertheless, its securities have become a proxy for investor confidence in debt-funded AI infrastructure.
Oracle, another major investor in AI computing capacity, fell 8.8 per cent in Friday trading, while CoreWeave dropped 15.5 per cent.
The question is shifting from how much AI infrastructure can be built to how profitably it can be operated.
Interest rates were not the only catalyst. Reports of advances by Chinese memory-chip producer ChangXin Memory Technologies raised concerns that lower-cost Chinese products could increase competition across the global semiconductor industry.
Memory chips are essential to AI systems, but the industry is historically cyclical. Periods of tight supply and high pricing can encourage rapid investment, eventually producing oversupply and falling margins.
The prospect of a well-funded Chinese competitor expanding its technological capabilities unsettled investors in Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron. It also demonstrated that AI-related demand does not insulate chipmakers from conventional competitive pressures.
That combination—slower rate cuts, more expensive financing and potentially cheaper supply—challenged the assumption that every company exposed to AI would enjoy continually expanding margins.
The sell-off does not establish that the AI boom is ending. Demand for computing power remains strong, the largest technology companies continue to generate formidable cash flows and many infrastructure projects are backed by long-term customer contracts.
What has changed is the market’s willingness to overlook the price and financing structure of that growth.
The most resilient companies are likely to be those able to fund investment from operating cash flow, secure long-duration customers and demonstrate that new capacity will earn returns comfortably above its financing costs.
More speculative operators may face greater scrutiny, particularly where debt is expensive, customers are concentrated or expected revenue depends on demand that has not yet materialised.
For Australian investors, the lesson extends beyond US technology shares. Local data-centre operators, infrastructure funds, electricity suppliers and property groups are increasingly exposed to the same investment cycle.
Artificial intelligence may remain one of the defining growth themes of the decade. But last week’s correction showed that enthusiasm for the technology does not eliminate financial discipline.
The next stage of the AI boom will be judged not only by computing power, model performance or demand for chips, but by something more traditional: whether the assets being financed can generate enough cash to repay the money borrowed to build them.
Nasdaq Composite: Down 4.5 per cent for the week ended October 16, 2026
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: Down approximately 11.4 per cent
Micron Technology: Down approximately 14.6 per cent
Samsung Electronics: Down approximately 18 per cent
SK Hynix: Down approximately 24 per cent
US September inflation: 3.7 per cent annually
Estimated 2026 AI-related investment-grade issuance: Approximately US$300 billion
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