Bitcoin soared to an all-time high on Monday, hitting US$19,850 in the morning before again slipping below US$19,500 by the afternoon.
It has nearly doubled in just the past two months. The cryptocurrency has been boosted by a flurry of endorsements from traditional investors, favourable government policies, and expanded access on investment apps, as Barron’s noted this weekend.
Even traditional investors who had long spurned or ignored Bitcoin have begun reconsidering. New buyers tend to view the digital asset as a hedge against currency devaluation at a time when governments have loosened monetary policy to deal with the coronavirus. It doesn’t bother many bulls that Bitcoin remains mostly useless as a currency. Its role as an asset appears to be enough.
Scott Minerd, the global chief investment officer at Guggenheim, appears to be warming to Bitcoin. The Guggenheim Macro Opportunities Fund (ticker: GIOAX), with more than $5 billion in assets under management, said in a regulatory filing that it may invest up to 10% of its net asset value in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a stock-like security that tracks the price of Bitcoin.
Bernstein analyst Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, co-head of the portfolio strategy team, wrote on Monday: “I have changed my mind about Bitcoin’s role in asset allocation. In January 2018 we declared that it had no such role. But actually, maybe we have to admit it does. What has changed is the policy environment, debt levels and diversification options for investors post the pandemic.”
One reason that analysts are changing their minds about Bitcoin is that it may serve to balance portfolio exposure for some investors. Stocks are trading at high valuations, so it makes sense to hedge exposure to them. But bonds and Treasuries have also rallied, and are trading with such low yields that there’s not much reward for the risk that investors are taking on.
Gold has also risen in recent months and is trading near a 50-year high relative valuation to other commodities, according to Jim Paulsen, the chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group.
Paulsen recommended on Monday that clients consider Bitcoin as a way to balance their portfolios. He is impressed with how uncorrelated it has been to other assets — both stocks and things like bonds and gold. “The thing is, Bitcoin has risks, but today, so do most of the other balanced portfolio alternatives,” he wrote.
He explained more in a follow-up email to Barron’s.
“I still don’t really understand what drives Bitcoin but I am finally willing to recognize that its short history yields some beneficial attributes which I can’t find elsewhere,” Paulsen wrote. “And, unlike other balance possibilities, I am not looking to ‘buy and hold’ Bitcoin (would need to understand it better to do that), but rather looking to exploit its excessive volume in order to improve the workings of a traditional balanced portfolio in a way which is not possible if utilizing only traditional assets. My point essentially is that I am not really attracted per se to Bitcoin fundamentally, but rather only its ‘interactive’ character (including its unique excessive volatility) with stocks and other traditional assets.”
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A leading Australian economist says two years on, the long term implications of COVID for the economy have emerged
AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver says the effects of the pandemic continue to reverberate across the world, with seven key lasting impacts leading to “a more fragmented and volatile world for investment returns”.
“Perhaps the biggest impact is that the pandemic related stimulus broke the back of the ultra-low inflation seen pre-pandemic,” said Dr Oliver. “Together with bigger government and reduced globalisation, this means a more inflation-prone world. So, a return to pre-pandemic ultra-low inflation and interest rates looks unlikely.”
Here is a summary of Dr Oliver’s explanation of the seven key lasting impacts of COVID for investors.
1. Bigger government
The pandemic added to support for bigger government by showcasing the power of government to protect households and businesses from shocks, enhancing perceptions of inequality, and adding support to the view that governments should ensure supply chains by bringing production back home. IMF projections for government spending in advanced countries show it settling nearly 2 percent of GDP higher than pre-COVID levels.
Implications for investors: … likely to be less productive economies, lower than otherwise living standards and less personal freedom.
2. Tighter labour markets and faster wages growth
After the pandemic, labour markets have tightened reflecting the rebound in demand post-pandemic, lower participation rates in some countries and a degree of labour hoarding as labour shortages made companies reluctant to let workers go. As a result, wages growth increased, possibly breaking the pre-pandemic malaise of weak wages growth.
Implications for investors: Tighter labour markets run the risk that wages growth exceeds levels consistent with two to three percent inflation.
3. Reduced globalisation
A backlash against globalisation became evident last decade in the rise of Trump, Brexit and populist leaders …. Also, geopolitical tensions were on the rise with the relative decline of the US and faith in liberal democracies waning ... The pandemic inflamed both with supply side disruptions adding to pressure for the onshoring of production [and] heightened tensions between the west and China … we are seeing more protectionism (e.g.,with subsidies and regulation favouring local production) and increased defence spending.
Implications for investors: Reduced globalisation risks leading to reduced potential economic growth for the emerging world and reduced productivity if supply chains are managed on other than economic grounds.
4. Higher prices, inflation and interest rates
Inflation [due to stimulus payments to households and supply chain disruptions] is now starting to come under control … but the pandemic has likely ushered in a more inflation-prone world by boosting bigger government, adding to a reversal in globalisation and adding to geopolitical tensions. All of which combine with ageing populations to potentially result in higher rates of inflation.
Implications for investors: Higher inflation than seen pre-pandemic means higher than otherwise interest rates over the medium term, which reduces the upside potential for growth assets like shares and property.
5. Worsening housing affordability
… the lockdowns and working from home drove increased demand for houses over units and interest in smaller cities and regional locations. As a result, Australian home prices surged to record levels. Meanwhile, the impact of higher interest rates in the last two years on home prices was swamped by housing shortages as immigration surged in a catch-up. The end result is now record low levels of housing affordability for buyers …
Implications for investors: Ever worse housing affordability means ongoing intergenerational inequality and even higher household debt.
6. Working from home
There are huge benefits to physically working together around culture, collaboration, idea generation and learning but there are also benefits to working from home with no commute time, greater focus, less damage to the environment, better life balance and for companies – lower costs, more diverse workforces and happier staff. So the ideal is probably a hybrid model.
Implications for investors: Less office space demand as leases expire resulting in higher vacancy rates/lower rents, more people living in cities as vacated office space is converted, and reinvigorated life in suburbs and regions.
7. Faster embrace of technology
Lockdowns dramatically accelerated the move to a digital world. Many have now embraced online retail, working from home and virtual meetings. It may be argued that this fuller embrace of technology will enable the full productivity-enhancing potential of technology to be unleashed. The rapid adoption of AI will likely help.
Implications for investors: … a faster embrace of online retailing … at the expense of traditional retailing, virtual meeting attendance becoming the norm for many … and business travel settling at a lower level.
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Consumers are going to gravitate toward applications powered by the buzzy new technology, analyst Michael Wolf predicts