Bitcoin soared to an all-time high on Monday, hitting US$19,850 in the morning before again slipping below US$19,500 by the afternoon.
It has nearly doubled in just the past two months. The cryptocurrency has been boosted by a flurry of endorsements from traditional investors, favourable government policies, and expanded access on investment apps, as Barron’s noted this weekend.
Even traditional investors who had long spurned or ignored Bitcoin have begun reconsidering. New buyers tend to view the digital asset as a hedge against currency devaluation at a time when governments have loosened monetary policy to deal with the coronavirus. It doesn’t bother many bulls that Bitcoin remains mostly useless as a currency. Its role as an asset appears to be enough.
Scott Minerd, the global chief investment officer at Guggenheim, appears to be warming to Bitcoin. The Guggenheim Macro Opportunities Fund (ticker: GIOAX), with more than $5 billion in assets under management, said in a regulatory filing that it may invest up to 10% of its net asset value in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a stock-like security that tracks the price of Bitcoin.
Bernstein analyst Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, co-head of the portfolio strategy team, wrote on Monday: “I have changed my mind about Bitcoin’s role in asset allocation. In January 2018 we declared that it had no such role. But actually, maybe we have to admit it does. What has changed is the policy environment, debt levels and diversification options for investors post the pandemic.”
One reason that analysts are changing their minds about Bitcoin is that it may serve to balance portfolio exposure for some investors. Stocks are trading at high valuations, so it makes sense to hedge exposure to them. But bonds and Treasuries have also rallied, and are trading with such low yields that there’s not much reward for the risk that investors are taking on.
Gold has also risen in recent months and is trading near a 50-year high relative valuation to other commodities, according to Jim Paulsen, the chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group.
Paulsen recommended on Monday that clients consider Bitcoin as a way to balance their portfolios. He is impressed with how uncorrelated it has been to other assets — both stocks and things like bonds and gold. “The thing is, Bitcoin has risks, but today, so do most of the other balanced portfolio alternatives,” he wrote.
He explained more in a follow-up email to Barron’s.
“I still don’t really understand what drives Bitcoin but I am finally willing to recognize that its short history yields some beneficial attributes which I can’t find elsewhere,” Paulsen wrote. “And, unlike other balance possibilities, I am not looking to ‘buy and hold’ Bitcoin (would need to understand it better to do that), but rather looking to exploit its excessive volume in order to improve the workings of a traditional balanced portfolio in a way which is not possible if utilizing only traditional assets. My point essentially is that I am not really attracted per se to Bitcoin fundamentally, but rather only its ‘interactive’ character (including its unique excessive volatility) with stocks and other traditional assets.”
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The 28% increase buoyed the country as it battled on several fronts but investment remains down from 2021
As the war against Hamas dragged into 2024, there were worries here that investment would dry up in Israel’s globally important technology sector, as much of the world became angry against the casualties in Gaza and recoiled at the unstable security situation.
In fact, a new survey found investment into Israeli technology startups grew 28% last year to $10.6 billion. The influx buoyed Israel’s economy and helped it maintain a war footing on several battlefronts.
The increase marks a turnaround for Israeli startups, which had experienced a decline in investments in 2023 to $8.3 billion, a drop blamed in part on an effort to overhaul the country’s judicial system and the initial shock of the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023 attack.
Tech investment in Israel remains depressed from years past. It is still just a third of the almost $30 billion in private investments raised in 2021, a peak after which Israel followed the U.S. into a funding market downturn.
Any increase in Israeli technology investment defied expectations though. The sector is responsible for 20% of Israel’s gross domestic product and about 10% of employment. It contributed directly to 2.2% of GDP growth in the first three quarters of the year, according to Startup Nation Central—without which Israel would have been on a negative growth trend, it said.
“If you asked me a year before if I expected those numbers, I wouldn’t have,” said Avi Hasson, head of Startup Nation Central, the Tel Aviv-based nonprofit that tracks tech investments and released the investment survey.
Israel’s tech sector is among the world’s largest technology hubs, especially for startups. It has remained one of the most stable parts of the Israeli economy during the 15-month long war, which has taxed the economy and slashed expectations for growth to a mere 0.5% in 2024.
Industry investors and analysts say the war stifled what could have been even stronger growth. The survey didn’t break out how much of 2024’s investment came from foreign sources and local funders.
“We have an extremely innovative and dynamic high tech sector which is still holding on,” said Karnit Flug, a former governor of the Bank of Israel and now a senior fellow at the Jerusalem-based Israel Democracy Institute, a think tank. “It has recovered somewhat since the start of the war, but not as much as one would hope.”
At the war’s outset, tens of thousands of Israel’s nearly 400,000 tech employees were called into reserve service and companies scrambled to realign operations as rockets from Gaza and Lebanon pounded the country. Even as operations normalized, foreign airlines overwhelmingly cut service to Israel, spooking investors and making it harder for Israelis to reach their customers abroad.
An explosion in negative global sentiment toward Israel introduced a new form of risk in doing business with Israeli companies. Global ratings firms lowered Israel’s credit rating over uncertainty caused by the war.
Israel’s government flooded money into the economy to stabilize it shortly after war broke out in October 2023. That expansionary fiscal policy, economists say, stemmed what was an initial economic contraction in the war’s first quarter and helped Israel regain its footing, but is now resulting in expected tax increases to foot the bill.
The 2024 boost was led by investments into Israeli cybersecurity companies, which captured about 40% of all private capital raised, despite representing only 7% of Israeli tech companies. Many of Israel’s tech workers have served in advanced military-technology units, where they can gain experience building products. Israeli tech products are sometimes tested on the battlefield. These factors have led to its cybersecurity companies being dominant in the global market, industry experts said.
The number of Israeli defense-tech companies active throughout 2024 doubled, although they contributed to a much smaller percentage of the overall growth in investments. This included some startups which pivoted to the area amid a surge in global demand spurred by the war in Ukraine and at home in Israel. Funding raised by Israeli defense-tech companies grew to $165 million in 2024, from $19 million the previous year.
“The fact that things are literally battlefield proven, and both the understanding of the customer as well as the ability to put it into use and to accelerate the progress of those technologies, is something that is unique to Israel,” said Hasson.
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