Crypto Might Have an Insider Trading Problem

Public data suggests that several anonymous crypto investors profited from inside knowledge of when tokens would be listed on exchanges.

Over six days last August, one crypto wallet amassed a stake of $360,000 worth of Gnosis coins, a token tied to an effort to build blockchain-based prediction markets. On the seventh day, Binance—the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume—said in a blog post that it would list Gnosis, allowing it to be traded among its users.

Token listings add both liquidity and a stamp of legitimacy to the token, and often provide a boost to a token’s trading price. The price of Gnosis rose sharply, from around $300 to $410 within an hour. The value of Gnosis traded that day surged to more than seven times its seven-day average.

Four minutes after Binance’s announcement, the wallet began selling down its stake, liquidating it entirely in just over four hours for slightly more than $500,000—netting a profit of about $140,000 and a return of roughly 40%, according to an analysis performed by Argus Inc., a firm that offers companies software to manage employee trading. The same wallet demonstrated similar patterns of buying tokens before their listings and selling quickly after with at least three other tokens.

The crypto ecosystem is increasingly grappling with headaches that the world of traditional finance tackled decades ago. The collapse of a so-called stablecoin from its dollar peg earlier this month stemmed from crypto’s version of a bank run. How cryptocurrency exchanges prevent market-sensitive information from leaking has also become a growing topic of concern. The focus comes as regulators are raising questions about the market’s fairness for retail users, many of whom just booked major losses on steep declines in crypto assets.

The wallet buying Gnosis was among 46 that Argus found that purchased a combined $17.3 million worth of tokens that were listed shortly after on Coinbase, Binance and FTX. The wallets’ owners can’t be determined through the public blockchain.

Profits from sales of the tokens that were visible on the blockchain totalled more than $1.7 million. The true profits from the trades is likely significantly higher, however, as several chunks of the stakes were moved from the wallets into exchanges rather than traded directly for stablecoins or other currencies, Argus said.

Argus focused only on wallets that exhibited repeated patterns of buying tokens in the run-up to a listing announcement and selling soon after. The analysis flagged trading activity from February 2021 through April of this year. The data was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Coinbase, Binance and FTX each said they had compliance policies prohibiting employees from trading on privileged information. The latter two said they reviewed the analysis and determined that the trading activity in Argus’s report didn’t violate their policies. Binance’s spokesperson also said none of the wallet addresses were linked to its employees.

Coinbase said it conducts similar analyses as part of its attempts to ensure fairness. Coinbase executives have posted a series of blogs touching on the issue of front running.

“There is always the possibility that someone inside Coinbase could, wittingly or unwittingly, leak information to outsiders engaging in illegal activity,” Coinbase Chief Executive Brian Armstrong wrote last month. The exchange, he said, investigates employees that appear linked to front running and terminates them if they are found to have aided such trades.

Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s chief legal officer, followed up with a blog post Thursday. The company has seen information about listings leak before announcements through traders detecting digital evidence of exchanges testing a token before a public announcement, he said. Coinbase has taken steps to mitigate that in addition to its efforts to prevent employee insider trading, he said.

Wallets like these have caused debate in the crypto community over whether targeted buying of specific tokens ahead of listings on exchanges points to insider trading. The crypto markets are largely unregulated. In recent years, regulators have looked more closely at the market’s fairness for individual investors. The largest cryptocurrency bitcoin has fallen 24% in May, causing steep losses for individual investors across the market.

Insider trading laws bar investors from trading stocks or commodities on material nonpublic information, such as knowledge of a coming listing or merger offer.

Some lawyers say that existing criminal statutes and other regulations could be used to go after those trading cryptocurrencies with private information. But others in the cryptocurrency industry say a lack of case precedent specific to crypto insider trading has created uncertainty over whether and how regulators might seek to tackle it in the future.

Argus CEO Owen Rapaport said that internal compliance policies in crypto can be undercut by a lack of clear regulatory guidelines, the libertarian ethos of many who work in the space and the lack of institutionalized norms against insider trading in crypto compared with those in traditional finance.

“Firms have real challenges with making sure the code of ethics against insider trading—which almost every firm has—is actually followed rather than being an inert piece of paper,” Mr. Rapaport said.

Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said Monday that he saw similarities between the influx of individual investors into crypto markets and the stock boom of the 1920s that presaged the Great Depression, which led to the creation of the SEC and its mandate to protect investors.“The retail public had gotten deeply into the markets in the 1920s and we saw how that came out,” Mr. Gensler said. “Don’t let somebody say ‘Well, we don’t need to protect against fraud and manipulation.’ That’s where you lose trust in markets.”

Spokespeople for the exchanges said that they have policies to ensure that their employees can’t trade off of sensitive information.

A Binance spokeswoman said that employees have a 90-day hold on any investments they make and that leaders in the company are mandated to report any trading activity on a quarterly basis.

“There is a longstanding process in place, including internal systems, that our security team follows to investigate and hold those accountable that have engaged in this type of behaviour, immediate termination being minimal repercussion,” she said.

FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried said in an email that the company explicitly bans employees from trading on or sharing information related to coming token listings and has a policy in place to prevent that. The trading highlighted in Argus’s analysis didn’t result from any substantive violations of company policy, Mr. Bankman-Fried said.

President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on trading partners have moved analysts to reduce forecasts for U.S. companies. Many stocks look vulnerable to declines, while some seem relatively immune.

Since the start of the year, analysts’ expectations for aggregate first-quarter sales of S&P 500 component companies have dropped about 0.4%, according to FactSet. The hundreds of billions of dollars worth of imports from China, Mexico, and Canada the Trump administration is placing tariffs on, including metals and basic materials for retail and food sellers, will raise costs for U.S. companies. That will force them to lift prices, reducing the number of goods and services they’ll sell to consumers and businesses.

This outlook has pressured first-quarter earnings estimates by 3.8%. Companies will cut back on marketing and perhaps labour, but many have substantial fixed expenses that can’t easily be reduced, such as depreciation and interest to lenders. Profit margins will drop in the face of lower revenue, thus weighing on profit estimates. The estimates dropped mildly in January, and then picked up steam in February, just after the initial tariff announcements.

“We are starting to see the first instances of analysts cutting numbers on tariff impacts,” writes Citi strategist Scott Chronert.

The reductions aren’t concentrated in one sector; they’re widespread, a concrete indication that the downward revisions are partly related to tariffs, which affect many sectors. The percentage of all analyst earnings-estimate revisions in March for S&P 500 companies that have been downward this year has been 60.1%, according to Citi, worse than the historical average of 53.5% for March.

The consumer-discretionary sector has seen just over 62% of March revisions to be lower, almost 10 percentage points worse than the historical average. The aggregate first-quarter earnings expectation for all consumer-discretionary companies in the S&P 500 has dropped 11% since the start of the year.

That could hurt the stocks going forward, even though the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund has already dropped 11% for the year. The declines have been led by Tesla and Amazon.com , which account for trillions of dollars of market value and comprise a large portion of the fund. The average name in the fund is down about 4% this year, so there could easily be more downside.

That’s especially true because another slew of downward earnings revisions look likely. Analysts have barely changed their full-year 2025 sales projections for the consumer-discretionary sector, and have lowered full-year earnings by only 2%, even though they’ve more dramatically reduced first-quarter forecasts. The current expectation calls for a sharp increase in quarterly sales and earnings from the first quarter through the rest of the year, but that’s unrealistic, assuming tariffs remain in place for the rest of the year.

“The relative estimate achievability of the consumer discretionary earnings are below average,” Trivariate Research’s Adam Parker wrote in a report.

That makes these stocks look still too expensive—and vulnerable to declines. The consumer-discretionary ETF trades at 21.2 times expected earnings for this year, but if those expectations tumble as much as they have for the first quarter, then the fund’s current price/earnings multiple looks closer to 25 times. That’s too high, given that it’s where the multiple was before markets began reflecting ongoing risk to earnings from tariffs and any continued economic consequences. So, another drop in earnings estimates would drag these consumer stocks down even further.

Industrials are in a similar position. Many of them make equipment and machines that would become more costly to import. The sector has seen about two thirds of March earnings revisions move downward, about 13 percentage points worse that the historical average. Analysts have lowered first-quarter-earnings estimates by 6%, but only 3% for the full year, suggesting that more tariff-related downward revisions are likely for the rest of the year.

That would weigh on the stocks. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF is about flat for the year but would look more expensive than it is today if earnings estimates drop more. The stocks face a high probability of downside from here.

The stocks to own are the “defensive” ones, those that are unlikely to see much tariff-related earnings impact, namely healthcare. Demand for drugs and insurance is much sturdier versus less essential goods and services when consumers have less money to spend. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF has produced a 6% gain this year.

That’s supported by earnings trends that are just fine. First-quarter earnings estimates have even ticked slightly higher this year. These stocks should remain relatively strong as long as analysts continue to forecast stable, albeit mild, sales and earnings growth for the coming few years.

“This leads us to recommend healthcare and disfavour consumer discretionary,” Parker writes.

Crypto Might Have an Insider Trading Problem

Anonymous wallets buy up tokens right before they are listed and sell shortly afterward.