Falling Food Prices Ease Upward Pressure On Global Inflation
Kanebridge News
    HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $1,495,064 (-0.25%)       Melbourne $937,672 (-0.06%)       Brisbane $829,077 (+1.01%)       Adelaide $784,986 (+0.98%)       Perth $687,232 (+0.62%)       Hobart $742,247 (+0.62%)       Darwin $658,823 (-0.42%)       Canberra $913,571 (-1.30%)       National $951,937 (-0.08%)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $713,690 (+0.15%)       Melbourne $474,891 (-0.09%)       Brisbane $455,596 (-0.07%)       Adelaide $373,446 (-0.09%)       Perth $378,534 (-0.83%)       Hobart $528,024 (-1.62%)       Darwin $340,851 (-0.88%)       Canberra $481,048 (+0.72%)       National $494,274 (-0.23%)   National $494,274                HOUSES FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 7,982 (-85)       Melbourne 11,651 (-298)       Brisbane 8,504 (-39)       Adelaide 2,544 (-39)       Perth 7,486 (-186)       Hobart 1,075 (-37)       Darwin 266 (+11)       Canberra 840 (-4)       National 40,348 (-677)                UNITS FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 7,376 (-100)       Melbourne 6,556 (-154)       Brisbane 1,783 (+12)       Adelaide 447 (+11)       Perth 2,139 (+3)       Hobart 173 (-1)       Darwin 393 (+1)       Canberra 540 (-29)       National 19,407 (-257)                HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $750 ($0)       Melbourne $550 ($0)       Brisbane $650 ($0)       Adelaide $550 ($0)       Perth $595 ($0)       Hobart $550 ($0)       Darwin $720 (+$40)       Canberra $675 ($0)       National $639 (+$6)                    UNIT MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $750 ($0)       Melbourne $550 ($0)       Brisbane $550 ($0)       Adelaide $430 ($0)       Perth $550 ($0)       Hobart $450 ($0)       Darwin $483 (-$38)       Canberra $550 ($0)       National $555 (-$4)                HOUSES FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 5,759 (+74)       Melbourne 5,228 (-159)       Brisbane 2,940 (-7)       Adelaide 1,162 (-13)       Perth 1,879 (-7)       Hobart 468 (-15)       Darwin 81 (+6)       Canberra 707 (+10)       National 18,224 (-111)                UNITS FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 8,359 (+95)       Melbourne 5,185 (+60)       Brisbane 1,588 (-3)       Adelaide 335 (-30)       Perth 752 (+11)       Hobart 161 (-1)       Darwin 107 (-16)       Canberra 627 (-36)       National 17,114 (+80)   National 17,114                HOUSE ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND       Sydney 2.61% (↑)      Melbourne 3.05% (↑)      Brisbane 4.08% (↑)        Adelaide 3.64% (↓)       Perth 4.50% (↓)     Hobart 3.85% (↑)        Darwin 5.68% (↓)     Canberra 3.84% (↑)      National 3.49% (↑)             UNIT ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND       Sydney 5.46% (↑)      Melbourne 6.02% (↑)      Brisbane 6.28% (↑)        Adelaide 5.99% (↓)     Perth 7.56% (↑)        Hobart 4.43% (↓)       Darwin 7.36% (↓)     Canberra 5.95% (↑)        National 5.84% (↓)            HOUSE RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 1.6% (↑)      Melbourne 1.8% (↑)      Brisbane 0.5% (↑)      Adelaide 0.5% (↑)      Perth 1.0% (↑)      Hobart 0.9% (↑)      Darwin 1.1% (↑)      Canberra 0.5% (↑)      National 1.2% (↑)             UNIT RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 2.3% (↑)      Melbourne 2.8% (↑)      Brisbane 1.2% (↑)      Adelaide 0.7% (↑)      Perth 1.3% (↑)      Hobart 1.4% (↑)      Darwin 1.3% (↑)      Canberra 1.3% (↑)      National 2.1% (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL HOUSES AND TREND       Sydney 30.9 (↑)      Melbourne 32.6 (↑)      Brisbane 37.7 (↑)      Adelaide 28.7 (↑)      Perth 40.1 (↑)      Hobart 37.6 (↑)        Darwin 36.1 (↓)     Canberra 33.0 (↑)      National 34.6 (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL UNITS AND TREND       Sydney 32.5 (↑)      Melbourne 31.7 (↑)      Brisbane 35.2 (↑)      Adelaide 30.2 (↑)        Perth 42.8 (↓)     Hobart 36.9 (↑)        Darwin 39.6 (↓)     Canberra 36.7 (↑)      National 35.7 (↑)            
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Falling Food Prices Ease Upward Pressure On Global Inflation

Agricultural markets remain volatile due to war and hot weather.

By DAVID HARRISON
Tue, Aug 2, 2022 10:30amGrey Clock 4 min

Falling prices for commodities such as wheat or corn are set to slow consumer food price increases, easing pressure on a major driver of global inflation.

But economists warn it is too soon to declare victory. Agricultural markets remain volatile and the continuing war in Ukraine, combined with unusually hot and dry weather in Europe and parts of the U.S., could bring new disruptions to food supplies.

“We’ll see certainly in the short run adjustments in prices,” said Rob Vos, an economist at the International Food Policy Research Institute. “I would be very cautious in making big projections that things are stabilizing and getting better because we still are in a pretty difficult and tight situation.”

Supply problems caused by the Covid-19 pandemic sent the price of food soaring last year. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February of this year added additional pressure. The two countries combined accounted for 28% of global wheat exports last year and 15% of corn exports. Russia is also a major exporter of agricultural fertilizer, and Ukraine leads the world in sunflower oil exports.

The onset of the war pushed up global food prices by 13% in March from the previous month, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.

Prices have edged down since, and in June, they were about 3% below March levels, though they remain higher than before the war started, according to the FAO.

Futures markets point to continued price declines. Wheat futures prices are now roughly where they were before Feb. 24, when Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. Corn prices are at their lowest level so far this year.

A recent agreement between Russia and Ukraine allowing exports of Ukrainian wheat could help cool global prices. After the agreement was signed, Russia attacked two of Ukraine’s biggest ports, Odessa and Mykolaiv, which handle much of the country’s food exports, raising doubts about Russia’s adherence to the deal.

The recent decline in commodity prices has already started to show up in consumer prices in some countries, and economists expect further moderation in coming months.

Annual food inflation in Colombia has eased from its peak in April, even though it remains historically high, according to government statistics. In Egypt, food prices fell on a monthly basis in June, the government reported.

In the U.S., Wingstop Inc., a restaurant chain, said it had started seeing falling chicken prices. “We are benefiting from meaningful deflation in bone-in wings,” said Chief Executive Officer Michael Skipworth in an earnings call.

J.P. Morgan economists now forecast global food inflation rates falling by half to around 5.5% or 6% in the fourth quarter of this year from around 13% in the second quarter.

That would make a big difference in emerging markets, where food accounts for a greater share of consumer spending than in developed economies. Easing food inflation could bring inflation down by 1.5 percentage points globally and 2 percentage points in emerging markets, J.P. Morgan estimates. That could take some pressure off central banks, many of which have been raising interest rates to bring inflation under control.

The U.S. could also see food prices moderate. Agricultural economists, though, say the effect at U.S. grocery stores could be muted. Commodities contribute only about 15% of retail food costs, with labour, shipping, packaging, advertising and profit margins contributing the rest, said Jayson Lusk, an agricultural economist at Purdue University.

Lower commodity prices “certainly can’t hurt,” he said. “From the consumers’ perspective it’s a positive sign that maybe we’ll see some downward pressure or at least a reduction in the increase.”

U.S. consumer food prices, both at grocery stores and restaurants, were up 10.4% in June from the previous year, the highest in more than four decades, according to the Labor Department. Food inflation accounted for roughly 1.4 percentage points of the 9.1% overall inflation rate in June, according to the Labor Department.

Higher prices are prompting some consumers to pull back or switch to cheaper brands. Unilever PLC and Kraft Heinz Co., which own many major food brands, both reported last week that higher commodity costs had forced them to raise prices even though that meant losing some customers.

Mr. Vos said food commodity prices are going down for the wrong reasons. Rather than signalling easing supply constraints, the price declines are a reflection of the dollar’s strength and an expectation that demand will decline as global growth cools, he said.

Since commodities are priced in U.S. dollars, a rise in the value of the dollar tends to push down the price for commodities, to offset the more expensive currency, Mr. Vos said. At the same time, central bank interest-rate increases to curb inflation have raised the risk of a global recession, he said.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for global growth and raised it for inflation, as China’s Covid-19 lockdowns, rampant inflation and the war in Ukraine continue to weigh on the world economy.

“There are a few things on the horizon for me that say we may not be done with higher food prices,” said Scott Brown, an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri.

Chief among them are war and weather. Hot and dry weather in Spain, Italy and parts of the U.S. will lower rice production next year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates, which could raise rice prices.

The agency says global wheat and corn production will fall by 1% and 2.6%, respectively, next year. Ukraine will see its wheat output fall 41% and its exports by almost half, according to the USDA.

“There are just so many uncertainties or unknowns right now, if I was a consumer I’d expect a lot of volatility in food prices ahead,” Mr. Brown said.



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Government spending, including Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, has helped drive a gap between clean-energy spending and fossil-fuel investments

By WILL HORNER
Thu, Jun 1, 2023 3 min

Investments in solar power are on course to overtake spending on oil production for the first time, the foremost example of a widening gap between renewable-energy funding and stagnating fossil-fuel industries, according to the head of the International Energy Agency.

More than $1 billion a day is expected to be invested in solar power this year, which is higher than total spending expected for new upstream oil projects, the IEA said in its annual World Energy Investment report.

Spending on so-called clean-energy projects—which includes renewable energy, electric vehicles, low-carbon hydrogen and battery storage, among other things—is rising at a “striking” rate and vastly outpacing spending on traditional fossil fuels, Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director said in an interview. The figures should raise hopes that worldwide efforts to keep global warming within manageable levels are heading in the right direction, he said.

Birol pointed to a “powerful alignment of major factors,” driving clean-energy spending higher, while spending on oil and other fossil fuels remains subdued. This includes mushrooming government spending aimed at driving adherence to global climate targets such as President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.

“A new clean global energy economy is emerging,” Birol told The Wall Street Journal. “There has been a substantial increase in a short period of time—I would consider this to be a dramatic shift.”

A total of $2.8 trillion will be invested in global energy supplies this year, of which $1.7 trillion, or more than 60% will go toward clean-energy projects. The figure marks a sharp increase from previous years and highlights the growing divergence between clean-energy spending and traditional fossil-fuel industries such as oil, gas and coal. For every $1 spent on fossil-fuel energy this year, $1.70 will be invested into clean-energy technologies compared with five years ago when the spending between the two was broadly equal, the IEA said.

While investments in clean energy have been strong, they haven’t been evenly split. Ninety percent of the growth in clean-energy spending occurs in the developed world and China, the IEA said. Developing nations have been slower to embrace renewable-energy sources, put off by the high upfront price tag of emerging technologies and a shortage of affordable financing. They are often financially unable to dole out large sums on subsidies and state backing, as the U.S., European Union and China have done.

The Covid-19 pandemic appears to have marked a turning point for global energy spending, the IEA’s data shows. The powerful economic rebound that followed the end of lockdown measures across most of the globe helped prompt the divergence between spending on clean energy and fossil fuels.

The energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year has further driven the trend. Soaring oil and gas prices after the war began made emerging green-energy technologies comparatively more affordable. While clean-energy technologies have recently been hit by some inflation, their costs remain sharply below their historic levels. The war also heightened attention on energy security, with many Western nations, particularly in Europe, seeking to remove Russian fossil fuels from their economies altogether, often replacing them with renewables.

While clean-energy spending has boomed, spending on fossil fuels has been tepid. Despite earning record profits from soaring oil and gas prices, energy companies have shown a reluctance to invest in new fossil-fuel projects when demand for them appears to be approaching its zenith.

Energy forecasters are split on when demand for fossil fuels will peak, but most have set out a timeline within the first half of the century. The IEA has said peak fossil-fuel demand could come as soon as this decade. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, a cartel of the world’s largest oil-producing nations, has said demand for crude oil could peak in developed nations in the mid-2020s, but that demand in the developing world will continue to grow until at least 2045.

Investments in clean energy and fossil fuels were largely neck-and-neck in the years leading up to the pandemic, but have diverged sharply since. While spending on fossil fuels has edged higher over the last three years, it remains lower than pre pandemic levels, the IEA said.

Only large state-owned national oil companies in the Middle East are expected to spend more on oil production this year than in 2022. Almost half of the extra spending will be absorbed by cost inflation, the IEA said. Last year marked the first one where oil-and-gas companies spent more on debt repayments, dividends and share buybacks than they did on capital expenditure.

The lack of spending on fossil fuels raises a question mark around rising prices. Oil markets are already tight and are expected to tighten further as demand grows following the pandemic, with seemingly few sources of new supply to compensate. Higher oil prices could further encourage the shift toward clean-energy sources.

“If there is not enough investment globally to reduce the oil demand growth and there is no investment at the same time [in] upstream oil we may see further volatility in global oil prices,” Birol said.

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