Future Returns: Making Sense of the Metaverse
Why Goldman Sachs sees the metaverse as a US$8 trillion global opportunity.
Why Goldman Sachs sees the metaverse as a US$8 trillion global opportunity.
Goldman Sachs sees the metaverse as an US$8 trillion global opportunity, so it’s no wonder the term is on the tip of investors’ tongues. The word was mentioned only seven times during investor presentations in 2020, according to corporate research company Sentieo, but at least 128 times last year. One huge player, the gaming company Roblox, surpassed US$39 billion in market cap in its IPO last March, and last October, Facebook changed its corporate name to Meta, creating widespread interest in the metaverse concept.
Broadly speaking it’s a network of digital, interactive virtual worlds where people come together for entertainment and commerce. Some of it will be experienced through consumer headsets. But while the metaverse’s apex is far off, we’re already living in a version of this digital world. During the pandemic, events like concerts by Lil Nas X and 21 Pilots, the Electric Daisy Concert music festival and fashion shows for Balenciaga and Moncler took place on gaming platforms like Fortnite and Roblox.
Morgan Stanley says there’s been a four-year acceleration in terms of player bases for gaming adoption during the pandemic. “Going forward, we expect that technological advances (such as 5G, edge computing) coupled with more use cases (beyond gaming, social media, entertainment) are likely to drive consumer adoption,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a report.
Penta examined some research and analyses from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Blackrock, and J.P. Morgan to identify strategies for investors who want to cut through the hype and figure out how to invest in the beginning of the metaverse’s investment cycle, which is already playing out.
On a recent podcast, Eric Sheridan of Goldman Sachs noted alternative investments are already being made in hardware, infrastructure, and even creator ecosystems for the metaverse. In December, for instance, Nike acquired virtual shoe designer RTFKT for an undisclosed sum as a foray into the metaverse. (Last year, he noted, there was about US$10 billion in private capital raised across related industries.)
Reid Menge of Blackrock wrote that recent volatility might distract investors from the long-term returns of metaverse opportunities. “Secular growth trends, such as digitalization of industries and an ever-growing reliance on data analytics, were accelerated during the pandemic and are multi-year transformations we expect to persist―regardless of the pace of reopening or moves in interest rates.”
Here are some highlights to keep under consideration when investing in the metaverse.
Decentralisation Is the Word
Decentralization is a key word when it comes to the metaverse, impacting both the tech and economic sides of this new world. Moving from central servers to peer-to-peer hosting will be essential to provide the sort of detailed, immersive experiences promised in the metaverse.
“If decentralization stays as its core, there is a debate out there in the technology industry of whether there will be large-scale winners in a Web 3.0, or if there’ll be a greater proliferation of smaller winners that take advantage of different niches,” Sheridan says. It may not mean aiming to pick one good horse from among market leaders, like in earlier iterations of the web.
This may also fundamentally change the nature of how consumers spend in the metaverse, and on what. Digital currencies offer new ways to pay and nonfungible tokens (NFTs) are a novel way to own goods.
“This democratic ownership economy coupled with the possibility of interoperability, could unlock immense economic opportunities, whereby digital goods and services are no longer captive to a singular gaming platform or brand,” J.P. Morgan wrote in a report.
Follow the Tech
Menge writes that as smartphone companies took off, they controlled both the hardware and the operating software. It helped them dominate the industry, and internet companies don’t want to miss the same opportunity in the metaverse. That’s why they want to provide both the platform and hardware as they enter this new world..
“We see the most immediate opportunity in those companies that can supply the big internet, software, and smartphone companies with the ingredients they need to develop glasses and headsets,” Menge wrote.
Two technologies that will play integral roles in this new universe are virtual and augmented reality. Market intelligence firm International Data Corporation notes VR and AR spending globally is expected to increase fivefold from US$12 billion in 2020 to US$72.8 billion in 2024.
While Goldman Sachs noted that AR represents a larger opportunity, it acknowledged both VR and AR still aren’t commonly used. “[T]he low penetration rates in the next 2 years are a key indicator around the timing of the Metaverse opportunity.”
Once the necessary hardware exists, Blackrock has its eye on “services that can be accessed by the new devices, and the software that will shape the metaverse.” It also likes firms that will design and create virtual worlds in the metaverse.
Look Carefully at Pain Points
Goldman Sachs noted that there are fundamental friction points such as “hardware form factor (especially cost curve), broadband connectivity and mass appeal use cases.” These will need to be dealt with to move forward with the metaverse, along with, as J.P. Morgan said, privacy and identity issues and regulatory infrastructure including accounting and tax.
But consumer pain points may prove the most challenging, including whether potential hundreds of millions of new users will be interested in sharing new and extensive private data. While the metaverse could impact any number of industries, such as advertising, e-commerce, education, and entertainment, the potential opportunities can vary.
Morgan Stanley points out that digital media and e-commerce offerings are already robust, and continue to improve. The firm’s Brian Nowak noted that some success stories from venture capital point to the importance of being 10 times better than the next best offering—a high watermark to clear.
“In the end, we have to ask, what consumer pain points will a metaverse solve for hundreds of millions of people?” Nowak wrote. He suggested companies with metaverse aspirations will need a “killer app” or a strong partner to drive mass adoption.
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Some designer handbags like the Hermès Kelly have implied power. But can a purse alone really get you a restaurant table—or even a job?
LIKE MARVEL VILLAINS, most fashion writers have origin stories. Mine began with a navy nylon Prada purse, salvaged from a Boston thrift store when I was a teen in the 1990s. Scuffed with black streaks and sagging, it was terribly beat-up. But I saw it as a golden ticket to a future, chicer self. No longer a screechy suburban theatre kid, I would revamp myself as sophisticated, arch, even aloof. The bag, I reasoned, would lead the way.
That fall, I slung it against my shoulder like a shotgun and marched into school, where a girl far more interesting than I was called out, “Hey, cool bag.” After feigning apathy —“I don’t know, you could use a Sharpie on a lunch bag and it would look the same”—we became friends. She introduced me to a former classmate who worked at a magazine. That woman helped me get an internship, which led to a job.
Twenty years later, I still wonder how big of a role that Prada purse played in my future—and whether designer bags can function as a silent partner in our success. Branded luxury bags took off in 1957, when Grace Kelly posed with an Hermès bag in Life magazine. (Hermès renamed that bag “the Kelly” in 1973.) The term “status bag” was popularised in 1990 by Gaile Robinson in the Los Angeles Times, describing any purse that projects social or economic power. Not surprisingly, these accessories are costly. Kelly bags cost over $10,000; ditto Chanel’s 11.22 handbag. Some bags by Louis Vuitton and Dior command similar price points. The cost isn’t repelling customers—both brands reported revenue surges in 2023. But isn’t there something dusty about the idea that a branded bag carries meaning along with your phone and wallet? How much status can a status bag deliver in 2024?
Quite a lot, said Daniel Langer, a business professor at Pepperdine University and the CEO of Équité, a Swiss luxury consulting firm. Beginning in 2007, Langer showed a series of photo portraits to hundreds of people across Europe, Asia and the U.S., then asked them 60 questions. Those pictured carrying a luxury handbag were seen as “more attractive, more intelligent, more interesting,” he said. The conclusion was “so ridiculous” to Langer that he repeated the studies several times over the next decade and a half. The results were always the same: “Purchasing a ‘status bag’ will prepare you to be more successful in your social actions. That is the data.”
Intrigued, I gathered various Very Important Purses—I borrowed some from friends, and others from brands—to see if they could elevate my station with the same unspoken oomph as a “Pride and Prejudice” suitor.
First, I took Alaïa’s Le Teckel bag—a narrow purse resembling an elegant flute case and carried by actress Margot Robbie—to New York’s Carlyle Hotel on a Saturday night. The line for the famous Bemelmans Bar stretched to the fire exit. “Can I get a table right away?” I asked the host, holding out my bag like a passport before an international flight. “It’s very busy,” he said in hushed tones. “But come sit. A table should open soon.” I sank into one of the Carlyle’s lush red sofas and sipped a martini while waiting—a much nicer way to kill 30 minutes than slumped against a lobby wall.
Wondering if this was a one-time thing, I called up Desta, the mononymous “culture director” (read: gatekeeper) who has worked for Manhattan celebrity hide-outs like Chapel Bar and Boom, the Standard Hotel bar that hosts the Met Gala’s official after party. “Sure, we pay attention to bags,” he said. “Not too long ago at Veronika,” the Park Avenue restaurant where Desta also steered the social ship, “we had one table left. A woman had a Saint Laurent bag from the Hedi Era,” he said, referencing Hedi Slimane , the brand’s revered designer from 2012 to 2016. “I said, ‘Give her the table. She appreciates style. She’ll appreciate this place.’”
Some say a status bag can open professional doors, too. Cleo Capital founder Sarah Kunst, who lives between San Francisco and London, notes that in private-equity circles, these accessories can act as a quick head-nod in introductory situations. Kunst says that especially as a Black woman, she found a designer bag to be “almost like armour” at the beginning of her career. “You put it on, and if you’re walking into a work event or a happy hour where you need to network, it can help you fit in immediately.” She cites Chanel flap bags made from the brand’s signature quilted leather and stamped with a double-C logo as an industry favourite. “People love to talk about them. They’ll say, ‘Ohhh, I love your bag,’ in a low voice.” They talk to you, said Kunst, “like you’re a tiger.”
For high-stakes jobs that rely on commissions—sports agents or sales reps, for instance—a fancy handbag can help establish credibility. “It says, ‘I’m succeeding at my job,’” said Mary Bonnet, vice president of the Oppenheim Group, the California real-estate firm at the centre of Netflix reality show “Selling Sunset.” As a new real-estate agent in her 20s, Bonnet brought a fake designer bag to a meeting. To her horror, a potential buyer had the real thing. “I work in an industry where trust is important, and there I was being inauthentic. That was a real lesson.” Now Bonnet rotates several (real) Saint Laurent and Chanel bags, but notes that a super-expensive purse could alienate some clients. “I don’t think I’d walk into [some client homes] with a giant Hermès bag.”
Hermès bags are supposedly the apex predator of purses. But I didn’t feel invincible when I strapped a Kelly bag around my chest like a pebbled-leather ammo belt. The dun-brown purse cost $11,800, a sum that prompted my boyfriend to ask if I needed a bodyguard. Shaking with “is this insured?” anxiety, I walked into a showing for an $8.5 million apartment steps from Central Park. I made it through the door but was soon stopped by a gruff real-estate agent asking if I had an appointment. No, but I had an Hermès bag? Alas, it wasn’t enough. The gleaming black door closed in my face.
“What went wrong?” I asked Dafna Goor, a London Business School professor who studies the psychology behind luxury purchases. “You felt nervous,” she replied. “That always makes others uncomfortable, especially in a high stakes situation,” like an open house with jittery agents. Goor said recognisable bags from Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior are also often faked, which can lead to suspicion if not paired with “other signals of wealth.”
“You can’t just treat a bag as a backstage pass,” said Jess Graves, who runs the shopping Substack the Love List. Graves says bags are more of a secret code shared between potential connections. “I’ve been in line for coffee and a woman will see my Margaux [from the Row] and go, ‘Oh, I know that bag.’ Then we’ll chat.” Graves moved from Atlanta to Manhattan in 2023, and says she’s made some new, local friends thanks to these “bag chats.”
I had my own bag chat that night, when I brought Khaite’s Olivia—a slim crescent of shiny maroon leather—to a house party thrown by a rock star I’d never met. In fact I knew hardly any guests, but as I stood in the kitchen, a woman in vintage Chanel pointed to my bag and asked, “How did you get that colour? It’s sold out!” Before I could tell her my name, she told me the make and model of my purse. Then she laughed about her ex-boss, a tech billionaire, and encouraged me to buy some cryptocurrency. The token I picked surged nearly 30% in about a week. Now I was onto something—a status bag that might bring not just status, but an actual market return.
Thanks to their prominence on social media, certain bags have gained favour among Gen Zers. “TikTok and Instagram make some luxury items even more visible and more desirable to young people,” said Goor. I experienced this firsthand on a stormy Saturday morning, when a girl in a college hoodie pointed at my Miu Miu Wander bag as I puddle-hopped through downtown New York. The piglet-pink purse is a TikTok favourite seen on young stars like Sydney Sweeney and Hailey Bieber. “Your bag is everything!” yelled the girl from the crosswalk. “Thanks, can I have your umbrella?” I shouted back. She laughed and left. My Wander had made a splash—but it couldn’t keep me dry. I ran to the subway, soaked. The bag looked even better wet.
Everyone loves an ingénue—fashion insiders included. Perhaps that’s why at Paris Fashion Week in September, newer handbags from Bottega Veneta and Loewe jostled for space and street-style flashbulbs.
“These bags, especially ones by independent labels like Khaite, are quieter signals of cultural access,” explained Goor. “Everyone knows what an Hermès Kelly bag is. So now there need to be new signals” beyond traditional status bags to convey power.
Sasha Bikoff Cooper, a Manhattan interior designer, says there’s a less cynical explanation for why these bags have captured celebrity fans—and more important, paying customers. “They’re fresh and also beautiful,” she said. “Hermès is always classic. It’s like a first love. But you want newness, too.”
The Wall Street Journal is not compensated by retailers listed in its articles as outlets for products. Listed retailers frequently are not the sole retail outlets.
This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan
Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.