Future Returns: Resetting Investment Expectations for 2022
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    HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $1,495,064 (-0.25%)       Melbourne $937,672 (-0.06%)       Brisbane $829,077 (+1.01%)       Adelaide $784,986 (+0.98%)       Perth $687,232 (+0.62%)       Hobart $742,247 (+0.62%)       Darwin $658,823 (-0.42%)       Canberra $913,571 (-1.30%)       National $951,937 (-0.08%)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $713,690 (+0.15%)       Melbourne $474,891 (-0.09%)       Brisbane $455,596 (-0.07%)       Adelaide $373,446 (-0.09%)       Perth $378,534 (-0.83%)       Hobart $528,024 (-1.62%)       Darwin $340,851 (-0.88%)       Canberra $481,048 (+0.72%)       National $494,274 (-0.23%)   National $494,274                HOUSES FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 7,982 (-85)       Melbourne 11,651 (-298)       Brisbane 8,504 (-39)       Adelaide 2,544 (-39)       Perth 7,486 (-186)       Hobart 1,075 (-37)       Darwin 266 (+11)       Canberra 840 (-4)       National 40,348 (-677)                UNITS FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 7,376 (-100)       Melbourne 6,556 (-154)       Brisbane 1,783 (+12)       Adelaide 447 (+11)       Perth 2,139 (+3)       Hobart 173 (-1)       Darwin 393 (+1)       Canberra 540 (-29)       National 19,407 (-257)                HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $750 ($0)       Melbourne $550 ($0)       Brisbane $650 ($0)       Adelaide $550 ($0)       Perth $595 ($0)       Hobart $550 ($0)       Darwin $720 (+$40)       Canberra $675 ($0)       National $639 (+$6)                    UNIT MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $750 ($0)       Melbourne $550 ($0)       Brisbane $550 ($0)       Adelaide $430 ($0)       Perth $550 ($0)       Hobart $450 ($0)       Darwin $483 (-$38)       Canberra $550 ($0)       National $555 (-$4)                HOUSES FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 5,759 (+74)       Melbourne 5,228 (-159)       Brisbane 2,940 (-7)       Adelaide 1,162 (-13)       Perth 1,879 (-7)       Hobart 468 (-15)       Darwin 81 (+6)       Canberra 707 (+10)       National 18,224 (-111)                UNITS FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 8,359 (+95)       Melbourne 5,185 (+60)       Brisbane 1,588 (-3)       Adelaide 335 (-30)       Perth 752 (+11)       Hobart 161 (-1)       Darwin 107 (-16)       Canberra 627 (-36)       National 17,114 (+80)   National 17,114                HOUSE ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND       Sydney 2.61% (↑)      Melbourne 3.05% (↑)      Brisbane 4.08% (↑)        Adelaide 3.64% (↓)       Perth 4.50% (↓)     Hobart 3.85% (↑)        Darwin 5.68% (↓)     Canberra 3.84% (↑)      National 3.49% (↑)             UNIT ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND       Sydney 5.46% (↑)      Melbourne 6.02% (↑)      Brisbane 6.28% (↑)        Adelaide 5.99% (↓)     Perth 7.56% (↑)        Hobart 4.43% (↓)       Darwin 7.36% (↓)     Canberra 5.95% (↑)        National 5.84% (↓)            HOUSE RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 1.6% (↑)      Melbourne 1.8% (↑)      Brisbane 0.5% (↑)      Adelaide 0.5% (↑)      Perth 1.0% (↑)      Hobart 0.9% (↑)      Darwin 1.1% (↑)      Canberra 0.5% (↑)      National 1.2% (↑)             UNIT RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 2.3% (↑)      Melbourne 2.8% (↑)      Brisbane 1.2% (↑)      Adelaide 0.7% (↑)      Perth 1.3% (↑)      Hobart 1.4% (↑)      Darwin 1.3% (↑)      Canberra 1.3% (↑)      National 2.1% (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL HOUSES AND TREND       Sydney 30.9 (↑)      Melbourne 32.6 (↑)      Brisbane 37.7 (↑)      Adelaide 28.7 (↑)      Perth 40.1 (↑)      Hobart 37.6 (↑)        Darwin 36.1 (↓)     Canberra 33.0 (↑)      National 34.6 (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL UNITS AND TREND       Sydney 32.5 (↑)      Melbourne 31.7 (↑)      Brisbane 35.2 (↑)      Adelaide 30.2 (↑)        Perth 42.8 (↓)     Hobart 36.9 (↑)        Darwin 39.6 (↓)     Canberra 36.7 (↑)      National 35.7 (↑)            
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Future Returns: Resetting Investment Expectations for 2022

What to expect from the year ahead.

By Abby Schulz
Wed, Jan 12, 2022 12:20pmGrey Clock 4 min

While economies across the world are strong, lofty valuations for public companies and the likelihood of interest-rate hikes mean investors are resetting their expectations for returns.

“This next phase of the economic cycle is definitely going to be slower than the record-breaking rally and pivot in the cycle that we saw over the last two years,” says Amanda Agati, chief investment officer for PNC Financial Services Asset Management Group. “We think it’s going to be a much tougher slog.”

Keep in mind, this more challenging outlook comes after a year when the S&P 500 index rose nearly 27%, capping a three-year period when the broad-market index was up more than 90%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

For 2022, the S&P 500 is projected to gain 9%, which in a non-pandemic environment would certainly be considered a “home run for large-cap domestic equities,” Agati says. But relative to the last three years, it’s certainly lower.

When it comes to public debt, PNC is even more cautious. While the bank expects a “lower-for-longer” interest-rate environment to persist for the next several years, its economists do expect rates to move higher globally in 2022, putting price pressure on most categories of bonds.

In its 10-year forecast, PNC predicts the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index of intermediate-term corporate and government bonds will return 2.3% annually, while the Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-U.S. Markets Index will return 2%.

The bright star for PNC across the “multi-asset universe,” Agati says, is alternative investments—private equity, private debt, and venture capital. “There are a lot more opportunities [in alternatives] for meaningfully additive returns relative to public markets going forward,” she says.

Penta recently spoke about these opportunities with Agati, who is responsible for the investment policies guiding PNC Private Bank and PNC Private Bank Hawthorn, which works with family offices. She also guides the investment policies for PNC Institutional Asset Management.

‘Innovation and Growth’ 

In a slower-growing world, Agati says investors are focusing on companies offering innovation and growth, “and they’re willing to pay up for it to a degree,” she says. They will find most of these opportunities are in private markets.

While nothing is “table-pounding cheap,” even in private equity, the return expectations are higher, mainly because of the premium investors receive by agreeing to lock up their money for longer. Private-equity funds typically have fixed terms of 10 years.

Investing in private equity, however, is a multi-year process, as the strongest portfolios are diversified collections of funds with different vintage years, meaning the date the funds begin to put capital to work. “Each vintage year is unique and diverse relative to the others,” Agati says.

Private-equity funds investing in 2022, for instance, are likely to be shaped by an increase in mergers and acquisitions, buyouts, and special-purpose companies fueled by “still unprecedented fiscal and monetary support,” the bank wrote in a first-quarter investment strategy report.

Funds investing this year also will be working against a backdrop of heightened stock market volatility and uneven economic growth—both of which could create pockets of opportunity.

“The ballast that private-investment strategies can bring in particularly volatile times—not being beholden to quarterly earnings calls and the drivers around updating guidance in an uncertain backdrop—can provide comfort in portfolios,” Agati says.

Life Sciences, Technology, and Crypto

For 2022, private equity themes worth accessing include life sciences, technology, and cryptocurrency.

Life sciences are a “real area of innovation and investment” that has been catalyzed by the pandemic. In technology more broadly, there’s a boom in innovation particularly related to the metaverse, or the creation of virtual worlds.

“The tech [sector] has really been able to use the pandemic to its advantage, pulling away from the pack, and continuing to invest and allocate capital and drive innovation,” Agati says.

More entrepreneurs this year also are likely to harness blockchain technology to develop new companies and products, opportunities that will likely be made available through venture-capital funds. This “could be a very interesting vintage year for some of those exposures to take hold,” she says.

Another theme that isn’t necessarily specific to 2022 as a vintage year is impact investing in local communities. “There’s this real homegrown feeling of responsibility and duty for those who are impact-oriented or responsible investing-oriented to try to find a way to have the impact in their own backyard,” Agati says.

Finding Opportunities in Fixed-Income

One potentially bright spot in public debt is emerging markets, which are driven by variables outside of U.S. Federal Reserve policy. PNC expects the Bloomberg Emerging Markets Aggregate bond index to return 6.2% annually over the next 10 years.

That is partly because of current valuation levels, but also because PNC expects low rates globally will drive demand for emerging-market debt. Also, lofty levels for commodities exported from emerging markets have made government balance sheets in many of these countries stronger, according to the 2022 outlook.

“The growth outlook for emerging markets in general is one of the brightest in the multi-asset universe,” Agati says.

Because individual countries could experience unexpected tensions or shocks, PNC recommends investors consider investing in this sector through actively managed funds. It’s definitely a place “where astute active managers can add value to tilt toward or away from benchmark exposures,” she says.

Wealthy investors also can consider private debt funds, which invest in below-investment-grade loans, mezzanine funding, and distressed or special situation funds, according to PNC. That’s because the drivers for privately issued debt are not as closely tied to the movement in interest rates as in public markets, Agati says.

That means the cost of capital for borrowers in private markets is relatively low, providing more runway for deal-making. “Even though parts of the private market cycle and the economic cycle are further along from the bottom of the pandemic, we don’t think the private debt cycle is there,” Agati says. “It just creates a more interesting opportunity for investors.”

But as with emerging market debt, investing in private debt is enhanced by active managers. That’s in part because managers can re-price their investments quickly in response to changing conditions.

According to PNC, “allocations to private debt may be among the first to benefit from opportunities that arise among rapidly growing industries looking for new sources of capital.”



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Food prices continue to rise at a rapid pace, surprising central banks and pressuring debt-laden governments

By PAUL HANNON
Thu, May 25, 2023 4 min

LONDON—Fresh out of an energy crisis, Europeans are facing a food-price explosion that is changing diets and forcing consumers across the region to tighten their belts—literally.

This is happening even though inflation as a whole is falling thanks to lower energy prices, presenting a new policy challenge for governments that deployed billions in aid last year to keep businesses and households afloat through the worst energy crisis in decades.

New data on Wednesday showed inflation in the U.K. fell sharply in April as energy prices cooled, following a similar pattern around Europe and in the U.S. But food prices were 19.3% higher than a year earlier.

The continued surge in food prices has caught central bankers off guard and pressured governments that are still reeling from the cost of last year’s emergency support to come to the rescue. And it is pressuring household budgets that are also under strain from rising borrowing costs.

In France, households have cut their food purchases by more than 10% since the invasion of Ukraine, while their purchases of energy have fallen by 4.8%.

In Germany, sales of food fell 1.1% in March from the previous month, and were down 10.3% from a year earlier, the largest drop since records began in 1994. According to the Federal Information Centre for Agriculture, meat consumption was lower in 2022 than at any time since records began in 1989, although it said that might partly reflect a continuing shift toward more plant-based diets.

Food retailers’ profit margins have contracted because they can’t pass on the entire price increases from their suppliers to their customers. Markus Mosa, chief executive of the Edeka supermarket chain, told German media that the company had stopped ordering products from several large suppliers because of rocketing prices.

A survey by the U.K.’s statistics agency earlier this month found that almost three-fifths of the poorest 20% of households were cutting back on food purchases.

“This is an access problem,” said Ludovic Subran, chief economist at insurer Allianz, who previously worked at the United Nations World Food Program. “Total food production has not plummeted. This is an entitlement crisis.”

Food accounts for a much larger share of consumer spending than energy, so a smaller rise in prices has a greater impact on budgets. The U.K.’s Resolution Foundation estimates that by the summer, the cumulative rise in food bills since 2020 will have amounted to 28 billion pounds, equivalent to $34.76 billion, outstripping the rise in energy bills, estimated at £25 billion.

“The cost of living crisis isn’t ending, it is just entering a new phase,” Torsten Bell, the research group’s chief executive, wrote in a recent report.

Food isn’t the only driver of inflation. In the U.K., the core rate of inflation—which excludes food and energy—rose to 6.8% in April from 6.2% in March, its highest level since 1992. Core inflation was close to its record high in the eurozone during the same month.

Still, Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey told lawmakers Tuesday that food prices now constitute a “fourth shock” to inflation after the bottlenecks that jammed supply chains during the Covid-19 pandemic, the rise in energy prices that accompanied Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and surprisingly tight labor markets.

Europe’s governments spent heavily on supporting households as energy prices soared. Now they have less room to borrow given the surge in debt since the pandemic struck in 2020.

Some governments—including those of Italy, Spain and Portugal—have cut sales taxes on food products to ease the burden on consumers. Others are leaning on food retailers to keep their prices in check. In March, the French government negotiated an agreement with leading retailers to refrain from price rises if it is possible to do so.

Retailers have also come under scrutiny in Ireland and a number of other European countries. In the U.K., lawmakers have launched an investigation into the entire food supply chain “from farm to fork.”

“Yesterday I had the food producers into Downing Street, and we’ve also been talking to the supermarkets, to the farmers, looking at every element of the supply chain and what we can do to pass on some of the reduction in costs that are coming through to consumers as fast as possible,” U.K. Treasury Chief Jeremy Hunt said during The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council Summit in London.

The government’s Competition and Markets Authority last week said it would take a closer look at retailers.

“Given ongoing concerns about high prices, we are stepping up our work in the grocery sector to help ensure competition is working well,” said Sarah Cardell, who heads the CMA.

Some economists expect that added scrutiny to yield concrete results, assuming retailers won’t want to tarnish their image and will lean on their suppliers to keep prices down.

“With supermarkets now more heavily under the political spotlight, we think it more likely that price momentum in the food basket slows,” said Sanjay Raja, an economist at Deutsche Bank.

It isn’t entirely clear why food prices have risen so fast for so long. In world commodity markets, which set the prices received by farmers, food prices have been falling since April 2022. But raw commodity costs are just one part of the final price. Consumers are also paying for processing, packaging, transport and distribution, and the size of the gap between the farm and the dining table is unusually wide.

The BOE’s Bailey thinks one reason for the bank having misjudged food prices is that food producers entered into longer-term but relatively expensive contracts with fertilizer, energy and other suppliers around the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in their eagerness to guarantee availability at a time of uncertainty.

But as the pressures being placed on retailers suggest, some policy makers suspect that an increase in profit margins may also have played a role. Speaking to lawmakers, Bailey was wary of placing any blame on food suppliers.

“It’s a story about rebuilding margins that were squeezed in the early part of last year,” he said.

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