If Bitcoin Is Successful, ‘They’ll Kill It’

“I think at the end of the day if it’s really successful, they’ll kill it. And they’ll try to kill it. And I think they will kill it because they have ways of killing it. But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have a place—a value and so on.” – Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio, billionaire investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, said that the more successful that Bitcoin becomes, the more likely that it will get neutralized by governments and regulators supporting traditional monetary systems.

In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, Dalio reiterated comments that he has made in the past, repeating that governments have the power to undercut the growth of the nascent cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin and Ether on the Ethereum blockchain, which may pose a threat to conventional finance and global central banks.

Dalio said that Bitcoin may not “have intrinsic value” but said that it could still be useful in a diversified portfolio. The hedge-fund manager said that he thinks it’s worth considering all the alternatives to cash and all the alternatives to some of the financial assets.

“I’m no expert on it … I think diversification matters,” he said. “Bitcoin has some merit,” he said.

“The real question is how much [does an investor] have in gold versus how much you have in Bitcoin,” he noted.

For his part, Dalio explained that he maintains “a certain amount of money in Bitcoin… it’s a small percentage of what I have in gold, which is a small percentage of what I have in my other assets.”

Dalio’s comments come as traditional markets are struggling to rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite aiming to break a recent downbeat trend in trading.

Dalio, a prominent figure in the world of finance, has a networth of US$20 billion, according to Forbes.

In the past, Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, Bridgewater Associates, has said that he’s “very bullish” about crypto as a digital-clearing mechanism, perhaps referring to decentralized finance, or DeFi.

Requiring more than 30 percent of household income to service a home loan has long been considered the benchmark for ‘housing stress’. Yet research shows it is becoming the new normal. The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report reveals home loans on only 17 percent of homes are ‘serviceable’ if serviceability is limited to 30 percent of the median national household income.

Based on 40 percent of household income, just 37 percent of properties would be serviceable on a mortgage covering 80 percent of the purchase price. ANZ CoreLogic suggest 40 may be the new 30 when it comes to home loan serviceability. “Looking ahead, there is little prospect for the mortgage serviceability indicator to move back into the 30 percent range any time soon,” says the report.

“This is because the cash rate is not expected to be cut until late 2024, and home values have continued to rise, even amid relatively high interest rate settings.” ANZ CoreLogic estimate that home loan rates would have to fall to about 4.7 percent to bring serviceability under 40 percent.

CoreLogic has broken down the actual household income required to service a home loan on a 6.27 percent interest rate for an 80 percent loan based on current median house and unit values in each capital city. As expected, affordability is worst in the most expensive property market, Sydney.

Sydney

Sydney’s median house price is $1,414,229 and the median unit price is $839,344.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $211,456 to afford a home loan for a house and $125,499 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $120,554.

Melbourne

Melbourne’s median house price is $935,049 and the median apartment price is $612,906.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $139,809 to afford a home loan for a house and $91,642 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $110,324.

Brisbane

Brisbane’s median house price is $909,988 and the median unit price is $587,793.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $136,062 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,887 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $107,243.

Adelaide

Adelaide’s median house price is $785,971 and the median apartment price is $504,799.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $117,519 to afford a home loan for a house and $75,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,806.

Perth

Perth’s median house price is $735,276 and the median unit price is $495,360.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $109,939 to afford a home loan for a house and $74,066 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $108,057.

Hobart

Hobart’s median house price is $692,951 and the median apartment price is $522,258.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $103,610 to afford a home loan for a house and $78,088 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $89,515.

Darwin

Darwin’s median house price is $573,498 and the median unit price is $367,716.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $85,750 to afford a home loan for a house and $54,981 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $126,193.

Canberra

Canberra’s median house price is $964,136 and the median apartment price is $585,057.

Based on 40 percent serviceability, households need a total income of $144,158 to afford a home loan for a house and $87,478 for a unit. The city’s actual median household income is $137,760.

If Bitcoin Is Successful, ‘They’ll Kill It’

Founder of world’s largest hedge fund weighs in on cryptocurrency.

New research suggests spending 40 percent of household income on loan repayments is the new normal