IMF Warns Surge in U.S., China Debt Could Have ‘Profound’ Impact on Global Economy
Says U.S. and China, which will continue to see a surge in borrowing if current policies remain in place.
3 min
The U.S. and Chinese governments should take action to lower future borrowing, as a surge in their debts threatens to have “profound” effects on the global economy and the interest rates paid by other countries, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday.
In its twice-yearly report on government borrowing, the Fund said many rich countries have adopted measures that will lead to a reduction in their debts relative to the size of their economies, although not to the levels seen before the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, that is not true of the U.S. and China, which will continue to see a surge in borrowing if current policies remain in place. The Fund projected that U.S. government debt relative to economic output will rise by 70% by 2053, while Chinese debt will more than double by the same year.
The Fund said both countries will lead a rise in global government debt to 98.8% of economic output in 2029 from 93.2% in 2023. The U.K. and Italy are among the other big contributors to that increase.
“The increase will be led by some large economies, for example, China, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States, which critically need to take policy action to address fundamental imbalances between spending and revenues,” the IMF said.
The IMF expects U.S. government debt to be 133.9% of annual gross domestic product in 2029, up from 122.1% in 2023. And it expects China’s debt to rise to 110.1% of GDP by the same year from 83.6%.
The Fund said there had been “large fiscal slippages” in the U.S. during 2023, with government spending exceeding revenues by 8.8% of GDP, up from 4.1% in the previous year. It expects the budget deficit to exceed 6% over the medium term.
That level of borrowing is slowing progress toward reducing inflation, the Fund said, and may also increase the interest rates paid by other governments.
“Loose US fiscal policy could make the last mile of disinflation harder to achieve while exacerbating the debt burden,” the Fund said. “Further, global interest rate spillovers could contribute to tighter financial conditions, increasing risks elsewhere.”
A series of weak auctions for U.S. Treasurys are stoking investors’ concerns that markets will struggle to absorb an incoming rush of government debt. The government is poised to sell another $386 billion or so of bonds in May—an onslaught that Wall Street expects to continue no matter who wins November’s presidential election.
While analysts don’t expect those sales to fail, a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields would likely have consequences for borrowers around the world. The IMF estimated that a rise of one percentage point in U.S. yields leads to a matching rise for developing economies and an increase of 90 basis points in other rich countries.
“Long-term government bond yields in the United States remain elevated and sensitive to inflation developments and monetary policy decisions,” the Fund said. “This could lead to volatile financing conditions in other economies.”
China’s budget deficit fell to 7.1% of GDP in 2023 from 7.5% the previous year, but the IMF projects a steady pickup from this year to 7.9% in 2029. It warned that a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy “exacerbated by unintended fiscal tightening” would likely weaken growth elsewhere, and reduce aid flows that have become a significant source of funding for governments in Africa and Latin America.
An unusually large number of elections is likely to push government borrowing higher this year, the Fund said. It estimates that 88 economies or economic areas are set for significant votes, and that budget deficits tend to be 0.3% of GDP higher in election years than in other years.
“What makes this year different is not only the confluence of elections, but the fact that they will happen amid higher demand for public spending,” the Fund said. “The bias toward higher spending is shared across the political spectrum, indicating substantial challenges in gathering support for consolidation in the years ahead, and particularly in a key election year like 2024.”
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Paine Schwartz joins BERO as a new investor as the year-old company seeks to triple sales.
The sports-car maker delivered 279,449 cars last year, down from 310,718 in 2024.
Paine Schwartz joins BERO as a new investor as the year-old company seeks to triple sales.
2 minPrivate-equity firm Paine Schwartz Partners is backing BERO, a nonalcoholic beer brand launched by British actor and “Spider-Man” star Tom Holland.
A person familiar with the transaction said it values New York-based BERO at more than $100 million and will help support the brand’s ambitious growth plans.
BERO co-founder and Chief Executive John Herman said the company aims to more than double its sales team and significantly expand distribution to roughly triple sales this year.
BERO, which Holland and Herman launched in late 2024, reached nearly $10 million in sales in its first year and expects sales to reach almost $30 million this year, said Herman, who previously served as president of C4 Energy brand drink maker Nutrabolt.
“We weren’t just looking for capital,” Herman said. “We were looking for great partners that could help us grow.”
Paine Schwartz is investing through BetterCo Holdings, a portfolio company in the firm’s sixth flagship fund that it formed late last year to hold non-control investments in better-for-you food and beverage businesses, Paine Schwartz CEO Kevin Schwartz said.
Ultimately, Schwartz said he expects BetterCo to hold five to 10 investments.
BERO, BetterCo’s third investment, falls within the firm’s typical growth investment range of $10 million to $25 million, he said.
Earlier BERO backers include leading talent agency William Morris Endeavor Entertainment and venture-capital firm Imaginary Ventures, which also participated in the latest investment.
“This first external raise is not just a milestone, but a validation of what’s been achieved in a single year,” said Logan Langberg, a partner at Imaginary Ventures.
When they started BERO, Holland and Herman tapped as brewmaster Grant Wood, a past Boston Beer executive who went on to found Revolver Brewing, now part of Tilray Brands.
The brand currently offers four types of beer, including two IPAs. Its products are sold at Target stores, on Amazon.com and at other retail locations, such as supermarket chains Sprouts Farmers Market and Wegmans Food Markets in the U.S. and Morrisons in the U.K. BERO is also available at a number of liquor stores and bars and restaurants.
The company also offers a $55 a year premium membership that offers such perks as free shipping and access to member-only products and limited-edition releases.
To help build the brand’s name, BERO has struck a series of partnerships, becoming the official nonalcoholic beer partner of luxury sports-car maker Aston Martin and fitness studio chain Barry’s.
Nonalcoholic beers, which generally contain less than 0.5% of alcohol by volume, have become increasingly popular and account for the biggest share of alcohol-free drink sales, according to the Beer Institute, a national trade association.
Sales of such drinks are growing at a more than 20% annual rate and were expected to exceed $1 billion in 2025, according to market-research firm NielsenIQ, citing so-called off-premise channel sales it tracks, such as sales at liquor stores and grocery stores. But the bulk of those sales come from the top five brands, such as Athletic Brewing, co-founded by a former trader at Steve Cohen’s hedge fund Point72 Asset Management, NielsenIQ said.
Alcohol-free drinks, the market-research firm said, have emerged as a lifestyle choice—one based not on quitting alcohol but expanding options, with most non-alcohol buyers also buying alcoholic drinks.
“There’s a pendular swing in behaviours that [is] happening right now when it comes to people’s relationship with alcohol,” Herman said.
Corrections & Amplifications undefined Nonalcoholic beer brand BERO offers its fans a premium membership for $55 a year. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said the membership costs $50. (Corrected on Jan. 20.)
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