Population projections: We’re getting older and having fewer babies
ABS projections for the next 50 years point to migration as the pathway to population growth
3 min
Australia’s ageing population is clearly evident in the latest round of population projections just released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The median age in Australia is currently 38.5 years. By 2071, this will increase to between 43.8 years and 47.6 years.
The ABS comments: “Of the changes projected to occur in Australia’s population, ageing is generally considered to be the most dramatic, with significant changes to the age structure of the population. Ageing of the population is a trend which has been evident over recent decades as a result of fertility remaining below replacement level and declining mortality rates.”
The proportion of children aged 0-14 years is projected to decline from 18% in 2022 to between 13% and 16% in 2071. The working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 65% to between 59% and 60% in 2071. People aged 65 years and over will increase from 17% in 2022 to between 25% and 27% in 2071.
Overall, our population will swell from 26 million as of 30 June 2022 (and 26.5 million today) to between 34.3 million and 45.9 million by 2071. We’ll see a stronger growth rate of between 1.2% and 1.7% per annum over the next decade, but over the entire projection period, the growth rate will average out to between 0.6% and 1.1% per year.
Australia’s population growth is comprised of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures). Migration will play a bigger role in our population growth than natural increase, according to the projections.
In 2021-22, there was a natural increase of 117,400 people in Australia. In 2071, the ABS projects natural increase to range from 104,500 people per year to 118,000 per year. If Australia had no migration at all over the projection period, the population would fall to 23.9 million by 2071. The ABS says Australia’s birth rate has been declining for many decades.The fertility rate peaked in 1961 during the ‘baby boom’ at 3.5 babies per woman. The replacement level is considered to be 2.1 babies, but we haven’t been there since 1975. The current average is 1.64 babies per woman.
Australian women are also having their babies later in life. The ABS comments: “Over the past 10 years, age-specific fertility rates have been declining for the younger age groups (women below age 30), whilst remaining stable among women aged 30 years and over, representing a continuing shift in fertility towards older ages.”
The ABS expects net overseas migration gains of between 9.2 million and 14.1 million people in total over the next 50 years. NSW and Victoria will continue to attract the lion’s share of Australia’s new arrivals. NSW will attract 35.8% and Victoria will bring in 32.8%. NSW will receive between 63,000 and 97,900 migrants (net) per year from 2032, whileVictoria will receive between 57,400 and 90,200.
In terms of net interstate migration, or the movement of Australian residents between states, Queensland is expected to remain the favourite destination. The Sunshine State overtook Victoria in 2016-17 and this trend remains. It was turbocharged during COVID-19 when remote working prompted many people to leave NSW and Victoria. Queensland’s NIM rate more than doubled from 22,600 people in 2018-19 to 48,800 people in 2021-22.
Australians are expected to continue loving big city living. The unique concentration of our population is a factor keeping metro property prices as high as they are today. As of 30 June 2022, 67% of us were choosing to live in one of eight capital cities. This trend will continue, however, Melbourne is projected to overtake Sydney as Australia’s largest city sometime between 2032 and 2046. Its population will grow from just over 5 million in 2022 to between 6.5 million and 9.9 million by 2071.
The states with the highest concentration of capital city residents are currently Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne, and this trend will continue. Perth is currently home to 80% of West Australian residents and this will either remain the case or rise slightly to 81% over the next decade. Adelaide is home to 78% of South Australia’s population and this will rise to between 79% and 80%. Currently, 76% of Victorians choose to live in Melbourne and this will either stay the same or lift to 77% by 2032.
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The pandemic-fuelled love affair with casual footwear is fading, with Bank of America warning the downturn shows no sign of easing.
The pandemic-fuelled love affair with casual footwear is fading, with Bank of America warning the downturn shows no sign of easing.
2 minThe boom in casual footware ushered in by the pandemic has ended, a potential problem for companies such as Adidas that benefited from the shift to less formal clothing, Bank of America says.
The casual footwear business has been on the ropes since mid-2023 as people began returning to office.
Analyst Thierry Cota wrote that while most downcycles have lasted one to two years over the past two decades or so, the current one is different.
It “shows no sign of abating” and there is “no turning point in sight,” he said.
Adidas and Nike alone account for almost 60% of revenue in the casual footwear industry, Cota estimated, so the sector’s slower growth could be especially painful for them as opposed to brands that have a stronger performance-shoe segment. Adidas may just have it worse than Nike.
Cota downgraded Adidas stock to Underperform from Buy on Tuesday and slashed his target for the stock price to €160 (about $187) from €213. He doesn’t have a rating for Nike stock.
Shares of Adidas listed on the German stock exchange fell 4.5% Tuesday to €162.25. Nike stock was down 1.2%.
Adidas didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Cota sees trouble for Adidas both in the short and long term.
Adidas’ lifestyle segment, which includes the Gazelles and Sambas brands, has been one of the company’s fastest-growing business, but there are signs growth is waning.
Lifestyle sales increased at a 10% annual pace in Adidas’ third quarter, down from 13% in the second quarter.
The analyst now predicts Adidas’ organic sales will grow by a 5% annual rate starting in 2027, down from his prior forecast of 7.5%.
The slower revenue growth will likewise weigh on profitability, Cota said, predicting that margins on earnings before interest and taxes will decline back toward the company’s long-term average after several quarters of outperforming. That could result in a cut to earnings per share.
Adidas stock had a rough 2025. Shares shed 33% in the past 12 months, weighed down by investor concerns over how tariffs, slowing demand, and increased competition would affect revenue growth.
Nike stock fell 9% throughout the period, reflecting both the company’s struggles with demand and optimism over a turnaround plan CEO Elliott Hill rolled out in late 2024.
Investors’ confidence has faded following Nike’s December earnings report, which suggested that a sustained recovery is still several quarters away. Just how many remains anyone’s guess.
But if Adidas’ challenges continue, as Cota believes they will, it could open up some space for Nike to claw back any market share it lost to its rival.
Investors should keep in mind, however, that the field has grown increasingly crowded in the past five years. Upstarts such as On Holding and Hoka also present a formidable challenge to the sector’s legacy brands.
Shares of On and Deckers Outdoor , Hoka’s parent company, fell 11% and 48%, respectively, in 2025, but analysts are upbeat about both companies’ fundamentals as the new year begins.
The battle of the sneakers is just getting started.
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