Population projections: We’re getting older and having fewer babies

Australia’s ageing population is clearly evident in the latest round of population projections just released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The median age in Australia is currently 38.5 years. By 2071, this will increase to between 43.8 years and 47.6 years.

The ABS comments: “Of the changes projected to occur in Australia’s population, ageing is generally considered to be the most dramatic, with significant changes to the age structure of the population. Ageing of the population is a trend which has been evident over recent decades as a result of fertility remaining below replacement level and declining mortality rates.”

The proportion of children aged 0-14 years is projected to decline from 18% in 2022 to between 13% and 16% in 2071. The working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 65% to between 59% and 60% in 2071. People aged 65 years and over will increase from 17% in 2022 to between 25% and 27% in 2071.

Overall, our population will swell from 26 million as of 30 June 2022 (and 26.5 million today) to between 34.3 million and 45.9 million by 2071. We’ll see a stronger growth rate of between 1.2% and 1.7% per annum over the next decade, but over the entire projection period, the growth rate will average out to between 0.6% and 1.1% per year.

Australia’s population growth is comprised of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures). Migration will play a bigger role in our population growth than natural increase, according to the projections.

In 2021-22, there was a natural increase of 117,400 people in Australia. In 2071, the ABS projects natural increase to range from 104,500 people per year to 118,000 per year. If Australia had no migration at all over the projection period, the population would fall to 23.9 million by 2071. The ABS says Australia’s birth rate has been declining for many decades.The fertility rate peaked in 1961 during the ‘baby boom’ at 3.5 babies per woman. The replacement level is considered to be 2.1 babies, but we haven’t been there since 1975. The current average is 1.64 babies per woman.

Australian women are also having their babies later in life. The ABS comments: “Over the past 10 years, age-specific fertility rates have been declining for the younger age groups (women below age 30), whilst remaining stable among women aged 30 years and over, representing a continuing shift in fertility towards older ages.”

The ABS expects net overseas migration gains of between 9.2 million and 14.1 million people in total over the next 50 years. NSW and Victoria will continue to attract the lion’s share of Australia’s new arrivals. NSW will attract 35.8% and Victoria will bring in 32.8%. NSW will receive between 63,000 and 97,900 migrants (net) per year from 2032, whileVictoria will receive between 57,400 and 90,200.

In terms of net interstate migration, or the movement of Australian residents between states, Queensland is expected to remain the favourite destination. The Sunshine State overtook Victoria in 2016-17 and this trend remains. It was turbocharged during COVID-19 when remote working prompted many people to leave NSW and Victoria. Queensland’s NIM rate more than doubled from 22,600 people in 2018-19 to 48,800 people in 2021-22.

Australians are expected to continue loving big city living. The unique concentration of our population is a factor keeping metro property prices as high as they are today. As of 30 June 2022, 67% of us were choosing to live in one of eight capital cities. This trend will continue, however, Melbourne is projected to overtake Sydney as Australia’s largest city sometime between 2032 and 2046. Its population will grow from just over 5 million in 2022 to between 6.5 million and 9.9 million by 2071.

The states with the highest concentration of capital city residents are currently Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne, and this trend will continue. Perth is currently home to 80% of West Australian residents and this will either remain the case or rise slightly to 81% over the next decade. Adelaide is home to 78% of South Australia’s population and this will rise to between 79% and 80%. Currently, 76% of Victorians choose to live in Melbourne and this will either stay the same or lift to 77% by 2032.

Reporting season has once again reminded investors that a strong profit does not guarantee a rising share price, and a large loss does not always trigger a sell-off. What matters most is how each result compares with expectations and, increasingly, what management says about the year ahead. During the August 2026 season, companies offering credible turnarounds or unexpectedly strong guidance were rewarded handsomely, while those flagging weaker margins, slowing demand or greater uncertainty were punished.

The following ranking draws on Morningstar’s review of 164 ASX-listed companies and measures each company’s share-price movement on the day it reported. This captures the market’s immediate response to the earnings announcement, before subsequent economic developments, dividends and company-specific news cloud the picture. Here are the five biggest winners, and the five hardest-hit losers, of the season so far.

The five winners

1. Bapcor (ASX:BAP): +41.0%

Bapcor delivered reporting season’s largest relief rally after presenting early evidence that its troubled automotive-parts business was stabilising. Although underlying revenue fell 1.8% to $1.92 billion and underlying NPAT collapsed 85% to $10.8 million, underlying EBITDA of $152.5 million exceeded guidance.

More importantly, working-capital initiatives released $68.5 million in the second half, lifting cash conversion to 109.4% and reducing net debt by 63% to $135 million. The statutory loss was $431.6 million, largely because of non-cash impairments. Investors focused on improving operational momentum, stronger liquidity and management’s expectation of modest FY27 revenue growth.

2. Zip Co (ASX:ZIP): +18.2%

Zip comfortably surpassed its FY26 targets, sending the buy-now-pay-later provider’s shares sharply higher. Transaction volume rose 23% to $16.7 billion, while cash earnings before tax, depreciation and amortisation jumped 58% to a record $268.9 million. Statutory profit climbed 46% to $116.4 million, and the cash operating margin expanded by 4.2 percentage points to 20%.

The strongest signal was guidance for FY27 cash earnings of $340 million—around 26% growth and above analysts’ forecasts. US transaction volume increased 42.5% and now represents three-quarters of group volume, offsetting weaker customer activity in Australia.

3. CSL (ASX:CSL): +17.3%

CSL’s result was hardly spectacular in isolation, but it cleared a market bar that had fallen dramatically following earlier downgrades and restructuring announcements. Underlying NPATA was US$3.1 billion, down 2% in constant-currency terms, while operating cash flow reached US$3.51 billion.

CSL maintained its full-year dividend at US$2.92 per share and completed a A$1 billion buyback. The real catalyst was FY27 guidance for approximately 5% underlying profit growth, compared with market expectations closer to 2%. After an extended period of earnings disappointments, investors interpreted the outlook as evidence that CSL’s core plasma business was approaching a sustainable recovery.

4. Judo Capital (ASX:JDO): +16.9%

Judo Capital demonstrated strong operating leverage as its specialist business-lending franchise expanded. Full-year profit before tax rose 34% to $168.1 million, while pre-provision profit increased 42%. Gross loans and advances grew 18% to $14.7 billion, reaching the top of the bank’s guidance range and comfortably exceeding broader system growth.

Deposits increased 24% to $12.2 billion, return on equity improved by 1.1 percentage points to 6.4%, and earnings per share rose 29% to 9.9 cents. Reaffirmation of the FY27 outlook gave investors confidence that loan growth could continue without sacrificing margins or credit quality.

5. Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL): +15.8%

The owner of Supercheap Auto, rebel, BCF and Macpac reported record sales of $4.2 billion, up 3.2%, despite cautious discretionary spending. Profitability went backwards: normalised profit before tax fell 7% to $306 million and normalised NPAT declined 2.8% to $226 million as transformation spending weighed on margins. Nevertheless, the result exceeded subdued expectations, online sales grew 5.3% and membership across the group’s loyalty programs reached 13.1 million. Investors were also encouraged by positive early FY27 trading, stable gross margins and continued market-share gains. A fully franked 33-cent final dividend added to the appeal.

The five losers

1. Hansen Technologies (ASX:HSN): –21.2%

Hansen’s historic result met expectations, but investors recoiled from its outlook. The utility and communications software provider achieved an underlying EBITDA margin of 31%, exceeding its 30% target, while generating strong cash flow. However, management designated FY27 an “investment and transition year”, signalling a roughly five-percentage-point margin contraction as spending on products, sales capabilities and organisational changes increased.

Revenue had already been broadly flat, leaving investors concerned that the investment program would depress earnings before new growth appeared. Leadership changes, including the chief executive’s departure, added uncertainty. Management expects revenue growth and margins above 30% to return in FY28, but the market was unwilling to wait.

2. Life360 (ASX:360): –19.4%

Life360’s headline growth was impressive: quarterly revenue rose 38% to US$159 million, subscription revenue increased 31%, and adjusted EBITDA climbed 53% to US$31.1 million. Monthly active users reached 102.4 million and paying circles grew 27% to 3.2 million. The sell-off reflected expectations rather than a collapsing business.

Net income fell 18%, the net margin contracted from 6% to 3%, hardware shipments dropped 18%, and full-year EBITDA guidance was merely maintained. After a strong valuation run, investors wanted a larger upgrade and clearer evidence that heavy investment in advertising, international expansion and artificial intelligence would generate additional earnings.

3. PEXA Group (ASX:PXA): –17.0%

PEXA reported a 7% increase in continuing-operations revenue and 12% EBITDA growth to $152 million, accompanied by a two-percentage-point margin expansion. Free cash flow increased 39%, suggesting the core Australian electronic-conveyancing platform remained highly profitable. Investors instead concentrated on management’s warning that property-transfer volumes could decline, alongside regulatory uncertainty surrounding the fees PEXA can charge.

The company is also continuing to invest heavily in its loss-making international expansion. Morningstar considered the market reaction excessive, arguing that structural transfer-volume assumptions had not materially changed, but the combination of softer near-term activity and regulatory risk overwhelmed the respectable headline numbers.

4. SEEK (ASX:SEK): –14.3%

SEEK produced solid FY26 figures, including 10% revenue growth to $1.20 billion, a 15% rise in EBITDA and 28% growth in adjusted earnings per share. It also lifted its fully franked annual dividend by 13% to a record 52 cents. Those achievements were overshadowed by falling paid job-ad volumes and cautious FY27 assumptions.

The statutory accounts included a $201 million loss from the SEEK Growth Fund and $377 million of significant items, making the headline result considerably less attractive. Investors were particularly concerned that economic weakness could limit volumes while the company continued investing in platform integration and artificial-intelligence products.

5. JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH): –12.3%

JB Hi-Fi’s full-year result was broadly respectable, with group sales rising 5% to $11.1 billion and underlying earnings per share increasing 6% to $4.48. The damage came from its current-trading update. Australian sales were almost flat during the June quarter and deteriorated further in July, while earnings in the core Australian electronics business fell 3.6%.

Housing-related categories were particularly weak as higher living costs and interest rates constrained household budgets. With JB Hi-Fi entering the season on a demanding valuation, an in-line historic result was not sufficient: the loss of sales momentum prompted investors to rapidly reduce their expectations for FY27.

Overall, the season showed that share prices react less to whether profits rose or fell than to the gap between results and expectations. Bapcor was rewarded for being less troubled than feared, while several fundamentally profitable companies were punished because their outlooks failed to justify elevated valuations.