Population projections: We’re getting older and having fewer babies
ABS projections for the next 50 years point to migration as the pathway to population growth
3 min
Australia’s ageing population is clearly evident in the latest round of population projections just released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The median age in Australia is currently 38.5 years. By 2071, this will increase to between 43.8 years and 47.6 years.
The ABS comments: “Of the changes projected to occur in Australia’s population, ageing is generally considered to be the most dramatic, with significant changes to the age structure of the population. Ageing of the population is a trend which has been evident over recent decades as a result of fertility remaining below replacement level and declining mortality rates.”
The proportion of children aged 0-14 years is projected to decline from 18% in 2022 to between 13% and 16% in 2071. The working age population aged 15-64 years is projected to decrease from 65% to between 59% and 60% in 2071. People aged 65 years and over will increase from 17% in 2022 to between 25% and 27% in 2071.
Overall, our population will swell from 26 million as of 30 June 2022 (and 26.5 million today) to between 34.3 million and 45.9 million by 2071. We’ll see a stronger growth rate of between 1.2% and 1.7% per annum over the next decade, but over the entire projection period, the growth rate will average out to between 0.6% and 1.1% per year.
Australia’s population growth is comprised of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures). Migration will play a bigger role in our population growth than natural increase, according to the projections.
In 2021-22, there was a natural increase of 117,400 people in Australia. In 2071, the ABS projects natural increase to range from 104,500 people per year to 118,000 per year. If Australia had no migration at all over the projection period, the population would fall to 23.9 million by 2071. The ABS says Australia’s birth rate has been declining for many decades.The fertility rate peaked in 1961 during the ‘baby boom’ at 3.5 babies per woman. The replacement level is considered to be 2.1 babies, but we haven’t been there since 1975. The current average is 1.64 babies per woman.
Australian women are also having their babies later in life. The ABS comments: “Over the past 10 years, age-specific fertility rates have been declining for the younger age groups (women below age 30), whilst remaining stable among women aged 30 years and over, representing a continuing shift in fertility towards older ages.”
The ABS expects net overseas migration gains of between 9.2 million and 14.1 million people in total over the next 50 years. NSW and Victoria will continue to attract the lion’s share of Australia’s new arrivals. NSW will attract 35.8% and Victoria will bring in 32.8%. NSW will receive between 63,000 and 97,900 migrants (net) per year from 2032, whileVictoria will receive between 57,400 and 90,200.
In terms of net interstate migration, or the movement of Australian residents between states, Queensland is expected to remain the favourite destination. The Sunshine State overtook Victoria in 2016-17 and this trend remains. It was turbocharged during COVID-19 when remote working prompted many people to leave NSW and Victoria. Queensland’s NIM rate more than doubled from 22,600 people in 2018-19 to 48,800 people in 2021-22.
Australians are expected to continue loving big city living. The unique concentration of our population is a factor keeping metro property prices as high as they are today. As of 30 June 2022, 67% of us were choosing to live in one of eight capital cities. This trend will continue, however, Melbourne is projected to overtake Sydney as Australia’s largest city sometime between 2032 and 2046. Its population will grow from just over 5 million in 2022 to between 6.5 million and 9.9 million by 2071.
The states with the highest concentration of capital city residents are currently Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne, and this trend will continue. Perth is currently home to 80% of West Australian residents and this will either remain the case or rise slightly to 81% over the next decade. Adelaide is home to 78% of South Australia’s population and this will rise to between 79% and 80%. Currently, 76% of Victorians choose to live in Melbourne and this will either stay the same or lift to 77% by 2032.
The 1860s Darlinghurst mansion Stoneleigh could become Sydney’s most expensive home ever sold under the hammer when it goes to auction. Clint Ballard is giving buyers a $28 million guide for the heritage-listed mansion on Darley Street, opposite Iona, the former home of Hollywood royalty Baz Luhrmann. Stoneleigh is being offered for sale for the …
Set on one of the city’s last absolute riverfront sites, The Riversdale by Mosaic combines irreplaceable waterfront ownership with one of Brisbane’s most significant residential opportunities.
2 min
Luxury watch anniversaries often produce overtly nostalgic designs. Rolex has taken a more restrained route for the centenary of the Oyster, translating references to its 1926 breakthrough into a contemporary Oyster Perpetual 41 rather than reproducing a historic model.
The original Rolex Oyster is central to the company’s mythology. Introduced in 1926, it was presented as the first waterproof wristwatch, using a hermetically sealed case to protect the movement from water and dust. The architecture would go on to underpin the professional and everyday watches that built Rolex’s global reputation.
One hundred years later, the new Oyster Perpetual 41 carries details intended to echo that origin. Rolex describes the model as a centenary tribute and positions it within the direct line of descendants from the first Oyster. The appeal is not a conspicuous anniversary inscription, but the idea that an apparently simple three-hand watch embodies a century of incremental refinement.
Hans Waldorf, the founder of Rolex and Tudor. Image credit: Rolex
At 41 millimetres, it has the scale expected of the modern Oyster Perpetual line. The case, bracelet and automatic movement follow Rolex’s familiar formula: robust construction, legibility and an absence of unnecessary complication. That simplicity is precisely what gives the model breadth. It can serve as a first serious watch, an understated daily piece or a historically meaningful addition to a larger collection.
The launch also arrives as Rolex strengthens its Superlative Chronometer certification. The company says its 2026 standard expands the testing framework with additional criteria addressing magnetism, reliability and sustainability. Buyers should treat those claims as manufacturer specifications until independent long-term testing becomes available, but the change shows where major watchmakers see the next contest for credibility: not only accuracy, but resilience over years of ownership.
For collectors, the centenary context will be the headline. For everyone else, the attraction is more elemental. The Oyster Perpetual has no rotating bezel, chronograph registers or calendar window demanding attention. It is Rolex reduced to its essentials — waterproof case, automatic movement, clear dial and a design intended to outlast fashion.
That makes the 100th-anniversary model a fitting tribute. The original Oyster was important because it made a wristwatch more usable in daily life. A century later, Rolex is celebrating it with a watch designed around the same promise.
About Rolex
Hans Wilsdorf was a German-born watchmaker and entrepreneur, best known for founding Rolex and Tudor. Pioneering innovations like the waterproof Oyster case (1926) and self-winding Perpetual rotor (1931), he transformed wristwatches into precise, durable luxury items.
A master marketer, he introduced brand ambassadors and global expansion strategies. In 1945, he created the Hans Wilsdorf Foundation, ensuring Rolex’s profits support philanthropic causes beyond his death in 1960.
Formula 1 may be the world’s most glamorous sport, but for Oscar Piastri, it’s also one of the most lucrative. At just 24, Australia’s highest-paid athlete is earning more than US$40 million a year.
New research suggests that bonuses make employees feel more like a mere cog in a wheel.
