Australian unemployment rate remains steady as labour market shows signs of a slowdown
The number of those in full-time employment decreased while part-time work increased in December
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The unemployment rate remained at 3.9 percent in December, indicating a continuing tight labour market that was now starting to slow, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). In seasonally adjusted terms, employment decreased by 65,000 people overall to 14,201,100. Full-time employment fell by 106,600 to 9,791,200 people. Part-time employment increased by 41,400 to 4,409,900 people.
“The strength in employment in October and November and the fall in December reflected changes in the timing of employment growth in the last few months of 2023, compared with earlier years,” said David Taylor, ABS head of labour statistics.
Gareth Aird, CBA head of Australian economics, said this reflected the adoption of Black Friday sales events in the Australian retail sector, which had shifted long-term hiring and spending patterns.
“The growing popularity of Black Friday sales has now meant a lot more hiring is done in the month of November rather than December,” Mr Aird said. “This is a recent phenomenon.”
The employment-to-population ratio and participation rate both hit record highs in November. Both measures slipped by 0.4 percent in December. The employment-to-population ratio fell to 64.2 percent and the participation rate fell to 66.8 percent.Underemployment – which measures the portion of workers who would like to work more hours if they could – remained at 6.5 percent.
Mr Taylor said: “In trend terms, many of the key indicators still point to a tight labour market. However, the increasing unemployment rate since November 2022, along with the rising underemployment rate and slowdown in the growth of employment and hours worked, suggest that the labour market is starting to slow.”
In November 2022, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.5 percent. Mr Aird said the increase since then to 3.9 percent today indicated the labour market was loosening.“Other indicators of the labour market also capture its loosening,” he said. “Jobs growth over the past six months has all been in the part-time space. Seek jobs ads in December … were down by 17.4 percent over the year. And the number of applicants per job ad continued to march higher in November. Applicants per job ad were up by 81.1 percent over the year to November.”
Movements in the unemployment rate are a key factor considered by the Reserve Bank board when making interest rate decisions. The next decision will be announced on 6 February. Mr Aird said CBA expected the unemployment rate to gradually lift over 2024 to end the year at 4.5 percent. “We believe RBA rate cuts will be required this year to prevent the unemployment rate from rising much above 4.5 percent. Our base case sees the RBA commence an easing cycle in September.”
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Australian shares fell on Thursday as Wall Street weakness, rising oil and persistent rate concerns weighed on most of the market. The S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.72 per cent to 8,702. The All Ordinaries lost 0.66 per cent to finish at 8,897. Mining stocks were hit particularly hard, while real estate also dragged on the index. …
Continue reading “ASX falls 0.7 per cent as miners and property stocks retreat”
2 minAustralian shares fell on Thursday as Wall Street weakness, rising oil and persistent rate concerns weighed on most of the market.
The S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.72 per cent to 8,702. The All Ordinaries lost 0.66 per cent to finish at 8,897. Mining stocks were hit particularly hard, while real estate also dragged on the index.
Energy was the notable exception, gaining more than one per cent as Brent crude traded above US$103 a barrel. Oil had moved higher amid uncertainty surrounding potential US diesel-export restrictions and broader geopolitical supply risks. The move supported energy producers but renewed concern about inflation inputs across transport and the wider economy.
Gold shares were weak even as spot bullion remained historically elevated. The All Ordinaries Gold index fell about 2.25 per cent, showing that equity performance can diverge from the commodity because of valuation, currency, operating and company-specific factors.
Zip was a prominent loser, falling 11.38 per cent after the company reported short sales after the previous close. Nine Entertainment also weakened after UBS analysts warned of near-term revenue challenges associated with its advertising-supported subscription tier.
Premier Investments led larger winners despite caution about the retail environment. Breville, in which Premier owns a significant stake, also appeared among leading movers. In the broader ASX 300 screen, Myer gained 11.43 per cent and MAAS Group rose 7.93 per cent, while Lotus Resources fell 10.53 per cent. These percentage moves should be checked against company announcements and trading liquidity before attributing causes.
The Australian dollar was broadly flat at US70.38 cents. Spot gold was around US$4,280 an ounce, Brent crude approximately US$103.08 a barrel and iron ore near US$96.90 a tonne late in the session.
The rate outlook remains the central domestic catalyst. Labour-market weakness has not eliminated the possibility of an RBA increase next week, leaving banks, listed property and other rate-sensitive sectors exposed to changing expectations.
Market dashboard
S&P/ASX 200: 8,702, down 0.72 per cent.
All Ordinaries: 8,897, down 0.66 per cent.
Best sector: Energy, up more than one per cent.
Weakest areas: Real estate and materials were the major drags; confirm final sector percentages before publication.
Material winner: Premier Investments led the large-company gainers. Confirm its final closing move from the ASX before publication.
Material loser: Zip, down 11.38 per cent.
ASX 300 percentage leader: Myer, up 11.43 per cent.
ASX 300 percentage laggard: Zip, down 11.38 per cent.
AUD/USD: Approximately US$0.7038, broadly flat.
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