The End of Japan’s Negative Rates Will Be a Slow-Moving Tsunami

Japan’s stocks have reached levels that haven’t been seen for 34 years . The country is likely to hit another milestone soon: Its central bank could raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years as soon as Tuesday.

Higher, and positive, Japanese rates won’t reshape markets overnight. But the long-term effects could be profound, particularly if U.S. growth heads structurally lower for any reason, further narrowing the yield advantage of many U.S. assets. Japan is the single largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasurys, a major overseas lender, and an export heavyweight whose corporate earnings—and stocks—have been significantly supported by the ultra cheap Japanese yen. More Japanese capital staying at home could eventually impact the price of everything from U.S. mortgages to infrastructure finance in the developing world.

For much of the past two years, Japan has swum against global monetary tides, maintaining its ultra low interest-rate regime. But now, as most other major central banks are about to cut rates, the Bank of Japan is poised to break the trend again. Domestic media reported over the weekend that Japan’s central bank will end its negative interest rates, which have been in place since 2016, during its policy board meeting on Monday and Tuesday.

The decision would come after mounting evidence that the job market is on an increasingly strong footing , after years of stagnant wage growth. Unions secured an average salary increase of 5.28% , according to the first-round results of Japan’s annual spring wage negotiations, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation said last week. For the entire decade ending in 2022, the final annual increase never exceeded 2.4%.

Much likely won’t change in the short term. The Bank of Japan will probably pace its rate increases slowly: The past couple of years have, if anything, reaffirmed its reputation for moving slowly and deliberately. Moreover, while inflation is still high by Japanese standards—2.2% in January—it has already cooled from the peaks of last year.

Japanese bond yields have picked up, but they are still substantially lower than in the U.S. The rate differential between 10-year government bonds in the U.S. and Japan stands at 3.5 percentage points. That is significantly lower than the 4.2-percentage-point gap of a few months ago, but still way higher than the 1.5 percentage points of three years ago.

Even so, a narrowing rate gap—especially if the Fed cuts rates later this year, as seems likely—will support the Japanese yen . That could damp enthusiasm for rip-roaring Japanese stocks . They would become more expensive in dollar terms for foreign investors, who have been significant drivers of the rally. A stronger yen would also hit profits at some Japanese companies , especially big exporters.

Likewise, gradual interest-rate increases in Japan probably won’t change investment flows much in the short term. But it could be a different story down the road if the shift back to positive rates proves sustainable.

Japanese individuals and companies have been big investors abroad in search of higher yield for decades. The country’s foreign-portfolio investments stood at the equivalent of $4.2 trillion at the end of last year. A big chunk of that comes from Japanese pension funds and insurers, who would suddenly have more attractive options at home. Japanese investors, for example, hold around $1.1 trillion of Treasury bonds, making them the largest foreign owner.

Japanese investors have been scouring the globe for better returns for as long as most investors can remember. If that starts to change, the effects will be felt nearly everywhere—sooner or later.

As the war against Hamas dragged into 2024, there were worries here that investment would dry up in Israel’s globally important technology sector, as much of the world became angry against the casualties in Gaza and recoiled at the unstable security situation.

In fact, a new survey found investment into Israeli technology startups grew 28% last year to $10.6 billion. The influx buoyed Israel’s economy and helped it maintain a war footing on several battlefronts.

The increase marks a turnaround for Israeli startups, which had experienced a decline in investments in 2023 to $8.3 billion, a drop blamed in part on an effort to overhaul the country’s judicial system and the initial shock of the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023 attack.

Tech investment in Israel remains depressed from years past. It is still just a third of the almost $30 billion in private investments raised in 2021, a peak after which Israel followed the U.S. into a funding market downturn.

Any increase in Israeli technology investment defied expectations though. The sector is responsible for 20% of Israel’s gross domestic product and about 10% of employment. It contributed directly to 2.2% of GDP growth in the first three quarters of the year, according to Startup Nation Central—without which Israel would have been on a negative growth trend, it said.

“If you asked me a year before if I expected those numbers, I wouldn’t have,” said Avi Hasson, head of Startup Nation Central, the Tel Aviv-based nonprofit that tracks tech investments and released the investment survey.

Israel’s tech sector is among the world’s largest technology hubs, especially for startups. It has remained one of the most stable parts of the Israeli economy during the 15-month long war, which has taxed the economy and slashed expectations for growth to a mere 0.5% in 2024.

Industry investors and analysts say the war stifled what could have been even stronger growth. The survey didn’t break out how much of 2024’s investment came from foreign sources and local funders.

“We have an extremely innovative and dynamic high tech sector which is still holding on,” said Karnit Flug, a former governor of the Bank of Israel and now a senior fellow at the Jerusalem-based Israel Democracy Institute, a think tank. “It has recovered somewhat since the start of the war, but not as much as one would hope.”

At the war’s outset, tens of thousands of Israel’s nearly 400,000 tech employees were called into reserve service and companies scrambled to realign operations as rockets from Gaza and Lebanon pounded the country. Even as operations normalized, foreign airlines overwhelmingly cut service to Israel, spooking investors and making it harder for Israelis to reach their customers abroad.

An explosion in negative global sentiment toward Israel introduced a new form of risk in doing business with Israeli companies. Global ratings firms lowered Israel’s credit rating over uncertainty caused by the war.

Israel’s government flooded money into the economy to stabilize it shortly after war broke out in October 2023. That expansionary fiscal policy, economists say, stemmed what was an initial economic contraction in the war’s first quarter and helped Israel regain its footing, but is now resulting in expected tax increases to foot the bill.

The 2024 boost was led by investments into Israeli cybersecurity companies, which captured about 40% of all private capital raised, despite representing only 7% of Israeli tech companies. Many of Israel’s tech workers have served in advanced military-technology units, where they can gain experience building products. Israeli tech products are sometimes tested on the battlefield. These factors have led to its cybersecurity companies being dominant in the global market, industry experts said.

The number of Israeli defense-tech companies active throughout 2024 doubled, although they contributed to a much smaller percentage of the overall growth in investments. This included some startups which pivoted to the area amid a surge in global demand spurred by the war in Ukraine and at home in Israel. Funding raised by Israeli defense-tech companies grew to $165 million in 2024, from $19 million the previous year.

“The fact that things are literally battlefield proven, and both the understanding of the customer as well as the ability to put it into use and to accelerate the progress of those technologies, is something that is unique to Israel,” said Hasson.

The End of Japan’s Negative Rates Will Be a Slow-Moving Tsunami

Long-term effects of positive Japanese rates could be profound—on everything from mortgage rates to U.S. government finances

The 28% increase buoyed the country as it battled on several fronts but investment remains down from 2021