The End of Japan’s Negative Rates Will Be a Slow-Moving Tsunami

Japan’s stocks have reached levels that haven’t been seen for 34 years . The country is likely to hit another milestone soon: Its central bank could raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years as soon as Tuesday.

Higher, and positive, Japanese rates won’t reshape markets overnight. But the long-term effects could be profound, particularly if U.S. growth heads structurally lower for any reason, further narrowing the yield advantage of many U.S. assets. Japan is the single largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasurys, a major overseas lender, and an export heavyweight whose corporate earnings—and stocks—have been significantly supported by the ultra cheap Japanese yen. More Japanese capital staying at home could eventually impact the price of everything from U.S. mortgages to infrastructure finance in the developing world.

For much of the past two years, Japan has swum against global monetary tides, maintaining its ultra low interest-rate regime. But now, as most other major central banks are about to cut rates, the Bank of Japan is poised to break the trend again. Domestic media reported over the weekend that Japan’s central bank will end its negative interest rates, which have been in place since 2016, during its policy board meeting on Monday and Tuesday.

The decision would come after mounting evidence that the job market is on an increasingly strong footing , after years of stagnant wage growth. Unions secured an average salary increase of 5.28% , according to the first-round results of Japan’s annual spring wage negotiations, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation said last week. For the entire decade ending in 2022, the final annual increase never exceeded 2.4%.

Much likely won’t change in the short term. The Bank of Japan will probably pace its rate increases slowly: The past couple of years have, if anything, reaffirmed its reputation for moving slowly and deliberately. Moreover, while inflation is still high by Japanese standards—2.2% in January—it has already cooled from the peaks of last year.

Japanese bond yields have picked up, but they are still substantially lower than in the U.S. The rate differential between 10-year government bonds in the U.S. and Japan stands at 3.5 percentage points. That is significantly lower than the 4.2-percentage-point gap of a few months ago, but still way higher than the 1.5 percentage points of three years ago.

Even so, a narrowing rate gap—especially if the Fed cuts rates later this year, as seems likely—will support the Japanese yen . That could damp enthusiasm for rip-roaring Japanese stocks . They would become more expensive in dollar terms for foreign investors, who have been significant drivers of the rally. A stronger yen would also hit profits at some Japanese companies , especially big exporters.

Likewise, gradual interest-rate increases in Japan probably won’t change investment flows much in the short term. But it could be a different story down the road if the shift back to positive rates proves sustainable.

Japanese individuals and companies have been big investors abroad in search of higher yield for decades. The country’s foreign-portfolio investments stood at the equivalent of $4.2 trillion at the end of last year. A big chunk of that comes from Japanese pension funds and insurers, who would suddenly have more attractive options at home. Japanese investors, for example, hold around $1.1 trillion of Treasury bonds, making them the largest foreign owner.

Japanese investors have been scouring the globe for better returns for as long as most investors can remember. If that starts to change, the effects will be felt nearly everywhere—sooner or later.

Superannuation is the first thought when it comes to self-funding retirement. Yet it is hardly the only option for doing so.

Just as we have a choice in how and where we work to earn a living, many people also have a choice in how to fund their retirement.

It is possible and sometimes preferable to leave your superannuation untouched, allowing it to continue growing. Some or all of your income can come from alternative sources instead.

Here are some alternatives you can consider.

1. Downsize your home

For many who own their own homes, the equity accrued over decades can eclipse the funds in superannuation. However, it’s theoretical money only until it is unlocked.

Selling up the family home and downsizing – or rightsizing – for retirement allows you to pocket those gains tax-free and simultaneously relocate to a more suitable home with lower upkeep costs.

Up to $300,000 from the proceeds can be contributed by a downsizer to boost your super, and the remainder can be used to fund living expenses or actively invested.

Remember that while the sale proceeds of your home are tax-free, any future profits or interest earned from that money will be taxable.

2. Part-time work

Semi-retirement allows you to gradually step into retirement. You continue earning income and super while working part-time, keeping a foot in the workforce while testing the waters of your new found free time.

Doing so also offers scope to move into different roles, such as passing on your skills to future generations by teaching/training others in your field of expertise, or taking employment in a new area that interests you and is closer to home.

3. Self-employment

Retirement from a full-time position presents a good opportunity to pursue self-employment. With more time and fewer commitments on your hands, you have greater scope to turn your hobby into a business or leverage your professional skills and reputation as an external consultant.

Also, for the self-employed and those with a family business, director’s loan repayments from the company are typically tax-free, offering a potentially lucrative source of

income and a means of extracting previous investments into the business without selling your ownership stake.

4. Investments

Rental property income (from residential or commercial properties) can supplement or even provide a generous source of income. The same applies to dividends from shares.

These are likely to be more profitable if you own them well before retirement.

Income that is surplus to your everyday needs can be reinvested using tax-effective strategies to grow your future returns.

5. Family trust

A family trust could be used to house investments for yourself and other relatives, building intergenerational wealth.

Trusts allow funds to be allocated to beneficiaries to manage marginal tax rates and stretch the money further, you have control over how income is split between different family members and have flexibility for changing circumstances.

6. Selling collectables

You may not realise the value of items you have collected over the years, such as wine, artwork, jewellery, vintage cars, and antiques.

Rather than have them collect dust or pay to store them, they could be sold to fund your living costs or new investments.

Where possible, avoid selling growth assets in a depressed market – wait until you can extract maximum value.

7. Obtaining a part-pension

Part-pensions are not only possible but valuable in making your superannuation stretch further. They still entitle you to a concession card with benefits in healthcare, transport, and more.

Take these savings even further by requesting pensioner discounts with other companies, on everything from utilities to travel and insurance to eating out.

Also, don’t overestimate the value of your assets as part of the means test. It’s a common mistake that can wrongly deny you a full or part-pension.

Plan ahead

However, you ultimately fund your retirement, planning is crucial. Advice would hopefully pay for itself.

Understand your spending and how those habits will change before and during retirement, then look to investments that offer the best fit.

Consider a mixture of strategies to diversify your risk, manage your tax liabilities and ensure ongoing income.

Above all, timing is key. The further ahead you plan, the more time you have to embrace additional opportunities and do things at the right time to maximise their value. You’ve worked hard and now is your chance to enjoy the fruits of your labour!

Helen Baker is a licensed Australian financial adviser and author of the new book, Money For Life: How to build financial security from firm foundations (Major Street Publishing $32.99). Find out more at www.onyourowntwofeet.com.au