2024’s Top ASX Stock Picks: 5 Opportunities You Can’t Miss
ResMed, Goodman Group and Treasury Wine Estates are among this market analyst’s top stock picks for the new year
2 min
It’s been a tumultuous year for the ASX 200, which has moved within a broad range of between 7,568 points in February and 6,751 points in October. The benchmark index has recorded just 3.3% growth in the year to date. High interest rates and inflation have put pressure on businesses and forced consumers to rein in spending, while economic growth has weakened to an annual rate of just 2.1 percent.
Analysts at top brokerage house Morgan Stanley have a 12-month target of 7,350 points for the ASX 200, indicating more of the same for the market next year. Joe Wright of Airlie Funds Management comments: “ASX valuations have returned to more or less the average of their last 20 years”.
As always, some ASX stocks will shine, and eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert has announced his five top picks for 2024, as published on Finder.
ResMed CDI (ASX: RMD)
The ResMed share price has fallen 18.6% in 2023 to $24.79. Its 52-week high is $36.37. “Much of this recent weakness has come from the expectation that the new highly coveted Ozempic drug will dampen demand for ResMed’s sleep apnea devices,” says Mr Gilbert. “ResMed is a fundamentally quality business, and its recent sell-off has made its valuation more attractive.” Top broker Goldman Sachs rates ResMed shares a buy and has a 12-month share price target of $32 on the company.
TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE)
TechnologyOne stock has lifted 16.1% in the year to date to $15.17 per share. The 52-week peak is $17.12. “With inflation falling and central banks set to cut interest rates, technology shares could see their winning streaks continue,” says Mr Gilbert. “The good news for shareholders is the business has significant cash and investment holdings of $223 million and no debt, putting them in the position to continue its growth.” Goldman Sachs also rates this tech stock a buy with a 12-month price target of $18.05.
Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)
The Goodman Group share price has soared 34.7% in 2023 to $23.31. Its 52-week high is $23.69. Mr Gilbert says real estate shares should benefit from stabilising and potentially falling interest rates in 2024. “Goodman Group is in a strong position in the real estate sector, focused on logistics and warehouses. It also has a growing exposure to data centres – a booming area thanks to AI.” Top broker Citi says Goodman shares are a buy. Its analysts have a 12-month price target of $25.50.
TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG)
The TPG share price has essentially moved sideways in 2023, down 1.05% to $4.79. Its 52-week peak is $5.72. “As the telecom industry continues to transition to 5G technology, revenue could continue to grow,” says Mr Gilbert. The broker consensus recommendation published on CommSec was downgraded late last month from a moderate buy rating to a hold rating.
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)
Treasury Wine shares have tumbled 20% in 2023 to $10.36 per share. The 52-week high is $14.69. “The good news for Treasury Wines is that the Albanese government is renewing Australia’s relationship with China, which could mean good news for removing those tariffs denting Treasury’s sales,” Mr Gilbert says. Leading brokerage Morgans has an add rating on Treasury Wine shares with a 12-month price target of $14.15.
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Continued stagflation and cost of living pressures are causing couples to think twice about starting a family, new data has revealed, with long term impacts expected
2 min
Australia is in the midst of a ‘baby recession’ with preliminary estimates showing the number of births in 2023 fell by more than four percent to the lowest level since 2006, according to KPMG. The consultancy firm says this reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on the feasibility of younger Australians starting a family.
KPMG estimates that 289,100 babies were born in 2023. This compares to 300,684 babies in 2022 and 309,996 in 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said weak economic growth often leads to a reduced number of births. In 2023, ABS data shows gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 1.5 percent. Despite the population growing by 2.5 percent in 2023, GDP on a per capita basis went into negative territory, down one percent over the 12 months.
“Birth rates provide insight into long-term population growth as well as the current confidence of Australian families,” said Mr Rawnsley. “We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the period of economic stagflation in the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”
Mr Rawnsley said many Australian couples delayed starting a family while the pandemic played out in 2020. The number of births fell from 305,832 in 2019 to 294,369 in 2020. Then in 2021, strong employment and vast amounts of stimulus money, along with high household savings due to lockdowns, gave couples better financial means to have a baby. This led to a rebound in births.
However, the re-opening of the global economy in 2022 led to soaring inflation. By the start of 2023, the Australian consumer price index (CPI) had risen to its highest level since 1990 at 7.8 percent per annum. By that stage, the Reserve Bank had already commenced an aggressive rate-hiking strategy to fight inflation and had raised the cash rate every month between May and December 2022.
Five more rate hikes during 2023 put further pressure on couples with mortgages and put the brakes on family formation. “This combination of the pandemic and rapid economic changes explains the spike and subsequent sharp decline in birth rates we have observed over the past four years,” Mr Rawnsley said.
The impact of high costs of living on couples’ decision to have a baby is highlighted in births data for the capital cities. KPMG estimates there were 60,860 births in Sydney in 2023, down 8.6 percent from 2019. There were 56,270 births in Melbourne, down 7.3 percent. In Perth, there were 25,020 births, down 6 percent, while in Brisbane there were 30,250 births, down 4.3 percent. Canberra was the only capital city where there was no fall in the number of births in 2023 compared to 2019.
“CPI growth in Canberra has been slightly subdued compared to that in other major cities, and the economic outlook has remained strong,” Mr Rawnsley said. “This means families have not been hurting as much as those in other capital cities, and in turn, we’ve seen a stabilisation of births in the ACT.”
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