Trump’s Golden Age Begins With a Brutal Trade War

President Trump won last fall’s election on the pledge of a new “golden age.” Public confidence perked up and the stock markets leapt.

This week showed the dark side of that promised golden age. On Tuesday, as Trump boasted to Congress that “America’s momentum is back,” he was allowing steep new tariffs on Mexico and Canada to take effect, initiating what may become the most brutal trade war since the 1930s.

Stocks have largely surrendered their postelection euphoria, consumer confidence has wilted, and economists talk of stagflation —a spell of slow to stagnant growth and higher inflation.

Mindful of the fallout, Trump’s advisers have pressed for ways to delay or modify the tariffs. A 30-day carve-out for autos was announced Wednesday, and on Thursday Trump said tariffs on some Mexican and Canadian goods would be delayed until April 2.

Don’t assume, though, that anything will fundamentally change. Trump is early in his term, enjoys complete control of his party and Congress, and is counting on tax cuts to revive confidence. Lower interest rates and oil prices may soften the sting of tariffs. All that gives him freedom to indulge his most deeply held instincts on trade.

His decision to effectively repudiate the North American free-trade pact he himself negotiated in 2018 flows from a lifelong belief that allies and trading partners are freeloaders who diminish rather than augment American wealth and security. A similar mindset explains his decision to cut off aid to Ukraine and signal diminished support for Western European security.

He insists tariffs will make America rich. But this is true only in a relative sense.

If the tariffs stay, Canada and Mexico are likely both headed into deep recessions followed by years of painful adjustment to lost access to the massive U.S. market.

The fallout for the U.S. will be much less thanks to its size, wealth and entrepreneurial dynamism; but it will be negative, nonetheless. The U.S. would lose the efficiency and economies of scale that a continentwide market affords and the trust that has kept relations with its neighbors placid and predictable.

Trump’s real endgame

Outsiders have struggled to discern Trump’s endgame because he and his advisers advance multiple, conflicting motives for his behavior.

His advisers describe him as a dealmaker for whom tariffs are a means to an end. But through his actions, Trump has shown that tariffs are the end.

The stated justification for tariffs on Canada and Mexico was to reduce the inflow of fentanyl and illegal migrants. They complied: Illegal crossings at the southern border came to a near halt and Mexico extradited 29 drug bosses to the U.S. Seizures of fentanyl across the northern border, already low, plummeted in January, according to U.S. data.

Trump went ahead with the tariffs anyway. And in remarks Monday, he made his motives clear. “It’s going to be very costly for people to take advantage of this country,” he explained. “They can’t come in and steal our money and steal our jobs and take our factories and take our businesses and expect not to be punished.”

He is seeking not just to eliminate drugs, illegal immigration or even trade deficits, but to appropriate the industrial bases of Mexico and Canada. “What they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things, in the United States, in which case you have no tariffs,” he said.

With Canada, his aims are more ambitious, and ominous. He has said Canada can avoid the tariffs by becoming part of the U.S. “What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that’ll make it easier to annex us,” outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday.

The near and far costs

The U.S. market is too big to ignore so many multinationals will indeed choose to locate in the U.S. rather than Canada, Mexico or elsewhere.

That will benefit some American workers and companies. U.S. steelmakers are thrilled that prices are already up about 30% since January, before Trump announced tariffs on the metal.

Studies of past tariffs, though, show that gains to producers are more than offset by losses to consumers. Steel users are already complaining. Based on previous tariff episodes, Goldman Sachs expects consumers to pay 70% of the new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, amounting to $260 billion a year.

The cost to consumers comes not just in the form of higher prices, but the products they never buy because they aren’t available or are too expensive.

Anderson Economic Group, a business consulting firm, estimates tariffs will add $4,000 to $10,000 to the cost of a North American-built vehicle. For models with few substitutes, 75% to 80% of that will be passed on to consumers, reducing affordability and thus sales, said President Patrick Anderson. In addition, some models and options will simply no longer be available because they can’t be built at a price acceptable to the consumer, he said.

Every action has a reaction

Trump proceeds on the assumption that other countries have much more to lose from an economic or geopolitical rupture than the U.S. and will thus accede to his demands. Thus far, he’s been mostly right.

But should Mexico and Canada conclude that tariffs are not a negotiation but the endgame, their strategy will shift, from trying to please Trump to fortifying themselves against a newly capricious and threatening neighbor.

Until the 1990s, relations between the U.S. and Mexico were marked by mistrust and lack of cooperation on a broad range of political and economic issues.

“Our whole DNA was anti-U.S.,” said Jorge Guajardo, a former Mexican ambassador to China who is now with DGA Group, a global risk consulting firm. Free trade, he said, changed that. If it goes away, Mexico would revert to “complete mistrust of the northern neighbor,” reducing cooperation on crime, immigration, health and climate.

In Canada, Trump’s tariffs and professed aim of annexation have aroused a wave of nationalism and anger with little modern precedent.

The forthcoming federal election has been transformed from a referendum on the unpopular Trudeau, to a contest over who can best stand up to Trump.

“I don’t think Canada can ever again look upon the U.S. as a reliable economic partner,” said John Manley , a former deputy prime minister. “It has to develop its own strategy for building its own economy and looking elsewhere.”

Write to Greg Ip at greg.ip@wsj.com

Reporting season has once again reminded investors that a strong profit does not guarantee a rising share price, and a large loss does not always trigger a sell-off. What matters most is how each result compares with expectations and, increasingly, what management says about the year ahead. During the August 2026 season, companies offering credible turnarounds or unexpectedly strong guidance were rewarded handsomely, while those flagging weaker margins, slowing demand or greater uncertainty were punished.

The following ranking draws on Morningstar’s review of 164 ASX-listed companies and measures each company’s share-price movement on the day it reported. This captures the market’s immediate response to the earnings announcement, before subsequent economic developments, dividends and company-specific news cloud the picture. Here are the five biggest winners, and the five hardest-hit losers, of the season so far.

The five winners

1. Bapcor (ASX:BAP): +41.0%

Bapcor delivered reporting season’s largest relief rally after presenting early evidence that its troubled automotive-parts business was stabilising. Although underlying revenue fell 1.8% to $1.92 billion and underlying NPAT collapsed 85% to $10.8 million, underlying EBITDA of $152.5 million exceeded guidance.

More importantly, working-capital initiatives released $68.5 million in the second half, lifting cash conversion to 109.4% and reducing net debt by 63% to $135 million. The statutory loss was $431.6 million, largely because of non-cash impairments. Investors focused on improving operational momentum, stronger liquidity and management’s expectation of modest FY27 revenue growth.

2. Zip Co (ASX:ZIP): +18.2%

Zip comfortably surpassed its FY26 targets, sending the buy-now-pay-later provider’s shares sharply higher. Transaction volume rose 23% to $16.7 billion, while cash earnings before tax, depreciation and amortisation jumped 58% to a record $268.9 million. Statutory profit climbed 46% to $116.4 million, and the cash operating margin expanded by 4.2 percentage points to 20%.

The strongest signal was guidance for FY27 cash earnings of $340 million—around 26% growth and above analysts’ forecasts. US transaction volume increased 42.5% and now represents three-quarters of group volume, offsetting weaker customer activity in Australia.

3. CSL (ASX:CSL): +17.3%

CSL’s result was hardly spectacular in isolation, but it cleared a market bar that had fallen dramatically following earlier downgrades and restructuring announcements. Underlying NPATA was US$3.1 billion, down 2% in constant-currency terms, while operating cash flow reached US$3.51 billion.

CSL maintained its full-year dividend at US$2.92 per share and completed a A$1 billion buyback. The real catalyst was FY27 guidance for approximately 5% underlying profit growth, compared with market expectations closer to 2%. After an extended period of earnings disappointments, investors interpreted the outlook as evidence that CSL’s core plasma business was approaching a sustainable recovery.

4. Judo Capital (ASX:JDO): +16.9%

Judo Capital demonstrated strong operating leverage as its specialist business-lending franchise expanded. Full-year profit before tax rose 34% to $168.1 million, while pre-provision profit increased 42%. Gross loans and advances grew 18% to $14.7 billion, reaching the top of the bank’s guidance range and comfortably exceeding broader system growth.

Deposits increased 24% to $12.2 billion, return on equity improved by 1.1 percentage points to 6.4%, and earnings per share rose 29% to 9.9 cents. Reaffirmation of the FY27 outlook gave investors confidence that loan growth could continue without sacrificing margins or credit quality.

5. Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL): +15.8%

The owner of Supercheap Auto, rebel, BCF and Macpac reported record sales of $4.2 billion, up 3.2%, despite cautious discretionary spending. Profitability went backwards: normalised profit before tax fell 7% to $306 million and normalised NPAT declined 2.8% to $226 million as transformation spending weighed on margins. Nevertheless, the result exceeded subdued expectations, online sales grew 5.3% and membership across the group’s loyalty programs reached 13.1 million. Investors were also encouraged by positive early FY27 trading, stable gross margins and continued market-share gains. A fully franked 33-cent final dividend added to the appeal.

The five losers

1. Hansen Technologies (ASX:HSN): –21.2%

Hansen’s historic result met expectations, but investors recoiled from its outlook. The utility and communications software provider achieved an underlying EBITDA margin of 31%, exceeding its 30% target, while generating strong cash flow. However, management designated FY27 an “investment and transition year”, signalling a roughly five-percentage-point margin contraction as spending on products, sales capabilities and organisational changes increased.

Revenue had already been broadly flat, leaving investors concerned that the investment program would depress earnings before new growth appeared. Leadership changes, including the chief executive’s departure, added uncertainty. Management expects revenue growth and margins above 30% to return in FY28, but the market was unwilling to wait.

2. Life360 (ASX:360): –19.4%

Life360’s headline growth was impressive: quarterly revenue rose 38% to US$159 million, subscription revenue increased 31%, and adjusted EBITDA climbed 53% to US$31.1 million. Monthly active users reached 102.4 million and paying circles grew 27% to 3.2 million. The sell-off reflected expectations rather than a collapsing business.

Net income fell 18%, the net margin contracted from 6% to 3%, hardware shipments dropped 18%, and full-year EBITDA guidance was merely maintained. After a strong valuation run, investors wanted a larger upgrade and clearer evidence that heavy investment in advertising, international expansion and artificial intelligence would generate additional earnings.

3. PEXA Group (ASX:PXA): –17.0%

PEXA reported a 7% increase in continuing-operations revenue and 12% EBITDA growth to $152 million, accompanied by a two-percentage-point margin expansion. Free cash flow increased 39%, suggesting the core Australian electronic-conveyancing platform remained highly profitable. Investors instead concentrated on management’s warning that property-transfer volumes could decline, alongside regulatory uncertainty surrounding the fees PEXA can charge.

The company is also continuing to invest heavily in its loss-making international expansion. Morningstar considered the market reaction excessive, arguing that structural transfer-volume assumptions had not materially changed, but the combination of softer near-term activity and regulatory risk overwhelmed the respectable headline numbers.

4. SEEK (ASX:SEK): –14.3%

SEEK produced solid FY26 figures, including 10% revenue growth to $1.20 billion, a 15% rise in EBITDA and 28% growth in adjusted earnings per share. It also lifted its fully franked annual dividend by 13% to a record 52 cents. Those achievements were overshadowed by falling paid job-ad volumes and cautious FY27 assumptions.

The statutory accounts included a $201 million loss from the SEEK Growth Fund and $377 million of significant items, making the headline result considerably less attractive. Investors were particularly concerned that economic weakness could limit volumes while the company continued investing in platform integration and artificial-intelligence products.

5. JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH): –12.3%

JB Hi-Fi’s full-year result was broadly respectable, with group sales rising 5% to $11.1 billion and underlying earnings per share increasing 6% to $4.48. The damage came from its current-trading update. Australian sales were almost flat during the June quarter and deteriorated further in July, while earnings in the core Australian electronics business fell 3.6%.

Housing-related categories were particularly weak as higher living costs and interest rates constrained household budgets. With JB Hi-Fi entering the season on a demanding valuation, an in-line historic result was not sufficient: the loss of sales momentum prompted investors to rapidly reduce their expectations for FY27.

Overall, the season showed that share prices react less to whether profits rose or fell than to the gap between results and expectations. Bapcor was rewarded for being less troubled than feared, while several fundamentally profitable companies were punished because their outlooks failed to justify elevated valuations.