U.S. Inflation Slowed for Sixth Straight Month in December
Consumer-price index rose 6.5% last month from a year earlier
4 min
U.S. inflation eased in December for the sixth straight month following a mid-2022 peak as the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates and the economy showed signs of cooling.
The consumer-price index, a measurement of what consumers pay for goods and services, rose 6.5% last month from a year earlier, down from 7.1% in November and well below a 9.1% peak in June.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, climbed 5.7% in December from a year earlier, easing from a 6% gain in November. Many economists see increases in core CPI as a better signal of future inflation than the overall CPI. Core prices increased at a 3.1% annualised rate in the three months ended in December, the slowest pace in more than a year and down from 7.9% in June.
The figures added to signs that inflation is turning a corner following last year’s surge. They also likely keep the Fed on track to reduce the size of interest-rate increases to a quarter-percentage-point at their meeting that concludes on Feb. 1, down from a half-percentage point increase in December.
U.S. stocks climbed Thursday and investors bought U.S. Treasurys, lifting bond prices and weighing on yields. The S&P 500 added 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6%, or 217 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite also rose 0.6%.
Easing inflation follows several signs that U.S. economic activity cooled in late 2022. U.S. imports and exports fell in November from October, while retail sales, manufacturing output and home sales all declined. Job and wage growth slowed in December, though the labor market remained tight with historically low claims for unemployment insurance at the start of the year.
“The December CPI report was welcome good news after a very bad patch for inflation,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. He said consumers are getting relief from lower gasoline prices and moderating food prices, as well as declining prices for other goods.
On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.1% in December, due to sharply falling energy prices. That compared with a gain of 0.1% in November and 0.4% in October. Food-price increases also slowed last month. Core CPI rose 0.3% in December, up from November’s 0.2% rise but down from 0.6% increases in August and September.
Goods prices, a key driver of inflation over the past year and a half, fell for the third straight month in December as prices fell for products such as autos, computers and sporting goods.
Improving supply chains and reduced demand have relieved price pressures on goods, but services prices continued to climb in part because of wage gains in a tight labour market.
Some economists worry that still-high wage growth could keep consumers flush with cash and companies eager to raise prices to compensate, holding inflation above the Fed’s 2% target.
“Taming services inflation will be the Fed’s biggest challenge this year,” said Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
Shelter prices rose 7.5% in December from a year earlier, the Labor Department said, and a broader measure of services prices that excludes utilities rose 7% during the same period. Both increases were the biggest since 1982.
Daycare and preschool prices rose 5.4% in December from a year earlier, the biggest increase since 2006, while those for home-health care increased 6.1% in the same period. Hospital services prices, meanwhile, jumped 1.5% in December from the prior month, the sharpest monthly increase since 2015.
Inflation remained high across the globe in November, though it abated during the month, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Tuesday. Consumer prices across the Group of 20 largest economies—which contribute four-fifths of economic output worldwide—rose 9% from a year earlier in November, down from October’s 9.5% increase, the first drop in the G-20 inflation rate since August 2021.
Prices rose sharply in 2021 as the U.S. economy rebounded from the Covid-19 pandemic, powered by pent-up consumer spending that got a boost from low interest rates and government stimulus. Snarled supply chains fueled higher prices for many goods. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 also tightened supplies of energy and other commodities, further stoking inflation worldwide.
Inflation pressures on goods dissipated last summer as supply chains improved and energy prices fell. Shipping costs from China to the West Coast are near pre pandemic levels. Gasoline prices have declined, with the national average price of regular unleaded gasoline at $3.27 a gallon on Thursday, down about 50 cents a gallon from mid-November, according to OPIS, an energy-data and analytics provider. Gasoline prices peaked in mid-June at a record $5.02 a gallon.
“Logistics prices have also slowed materially, shipping costs are back to where they were pre-Covid,” said Jake Oubina, senior economist at Piper Sandler. “The alleviation on the cost side is creating the wherewithal to discount more aggressively as we head into 2023.”
The clearest impact of Fed tightening so far is in the housing market. Existing-home sales fell in November for a 10th straight month as high mortgage rates boosted buyers’ costs.
Ian Snowden, a 33-year-old tech salesman, said the shift to remote work after the pandemic hit allowed him to move to Asheville, N.C., where he has easy access to hiking, fishing and other outdoor activities.
The move proved expensive, though. After losing out to cash buyers in bids for existing homes, Mr. Snowden signed a contract in September 2021 to buy a newly constructed property. By the time his home was completed the following June, mortgage rates had doubled. On top of that, the construction company told him that he was on the hook for an extra $25,000 to offset unexpectedly high costs for concrete, labor and other items—or he could back out of the contract.
At that point, Mr. Snowden said, he was already selling his old house and had made plans to move, so he wasn’t going to back out. “So much was already in motion,” he said. Between the higher mortgage rates and the additional costs, the monthly mortgage payment increased $200, he said.
—Austen Hufford contributed to this article.
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Investors are bracing for a bumpier fall stock market due to shifting odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase and other macro challenges.
3 min
The stock market had a decent summer. Investors are bracing for a bumpier fall.
In the past couple of months, equity investors cheered soaring profits at big companies, shrugged off jitters in the bond market and nudged megacap tech shares back near records.
Now, as the post-Labor Day stretch begins, a number of new challenges lie ahead: ever-shifting odds of an interest-rate increase from the Federal Reserve. Sky-high expectations after a stunning earnings season. The persistent threat of higher consumer prices as fighting in the Middle East drags on.
“You’re moving from this earnings-driven market to this macro-driven market with the Fed, inflation and interest rates in focus,” said Keith Lerner, chief investment adviser for Truist Advisory Services. “It tends to be a choppier period.”
Historically, every major U.S. stock index experiences its worst average return in September. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has slid an average 1.1% in the ninth month of the year, in data that dates back to the 19th century. The S&P 500 has seen the same average decline—and for every September dating back to 1928, the benchmark ends the month lower more than half of the time.
Analysts caution against reading too much into those seasonal patterns. But in recent weeks, new reasons for investor caution have emerged. One of the largest: the looming threat of an interest-rate increase from the Fed, which announces its next policy decision on Sept. 16.
Chairman Kevin Warsh’s decision to ditch forward guidance and take more of his cues from markets has muddied the waters for investors when it comes to monetary policy. That has left traders scouring Fed governor speeches and economic-data reports for clues on the central bank’s next move.
“There’s going to be a lot of eyes on those numbers,” said John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors.
The past couple of weeks offered just one example of how frequently those expectations can change. After Warsh struck a hawkish tone during remarks on Aug. 28, the odds of a hike at the Fed’s next meeting jumped from 35% before the speech to 58%, according to CME FedWatch data.
On Thursday, Fed governor Christopher Waller made a case for leaving rates where they are. Interest-rate futures showed coin-flip odds between a hike and a hold. Then Friday’s robust jobs report amped up rate-hike bets once more, back to a roughly 60% chance of higher rates after the meeting.
“Rates have really been driving the car for equities the last few weeks,” said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird.
That uncertainty comes as an unruly bond market could put pressure on stocks. Treasury yields have marched higher for much of the summer, driven by concerns about rising oil prices, growing U.S. budget deficits and a deluge of tech-company bonds now competing for investors’ cash. Last week, the rout went global, pushing yields to multiyear highs in Japan, Germany and the U.K.
Higher bond yields can drag on stock prices and lift borrowing costs for companies and consumers across the economy.
Rising prices remain the top concern for bond traders, and continued fighting between the U.S. and Iran has done little to ease those worries. The national average price of diesel climbed to a record of $5.850 on Friday, according to AAA. That is up from $3.712 a year ago.
Investors will get more insight on the path of prices this week, with the much-awaited consumer-price index report due Friday and a reading on producer prices Thursday.
With another blockbuster earnings season in the books, some analysts have also warned that any boost from the third-quarter reports due in the coming months could be minimal. Back-to-back quarters of standout profits have raised expectations and made it especially difficult to impress traders. Custom-chip company Broadcom, for example, said Wednesday that it more than tripled its earnings and nearly doubled its revenue. Shares slipped 2.7% the next session.
Many analysts note there are plenty of reasons not to panic. The economy is in impressive shape, thanks to a healthy labor market and the rippling effects of the artificial-intelligence investment boom. Profits are booming at America’s biggest companies. The Cboe Volatility Index has dropped to its lowest levels of 2026. Credit spreads are tight, a sign bond investors aren’t concerned about economic conditions that could hurt companies.
But the mood has shifted from the euphoria that felt tangible when the Nasdaq was notching back-to-back records early this summer. The question, Mayfield said, is whether the fundamentals that have bolstered the bull market so far can stretch the rally into 2027.
“There are more anxieties or uncertainties about the backdrop,” he said. “It does feel like a transitional moment.”
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