Unemployment rises to its highest level in two years
Just 500 people started a new job in January this year
Just 500 people started a new job in January this year
The unemployment rate has risen to its highest level in two years at 4.1 percent, according to new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The seasonally adjusted jobless rate increased by 0.1 percent in January, with the number of unemployed Australians increasing by 22,300 and the number of people with a new job increasing by just 500.
Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, said this was the first time since January 2022 that the unemployment rate is above 4 percent. Mr Jarvis pointed out that a higher-than-usual number of unemployed people were due to start a job or return to work within the next four weeks. There was a similar trend in January last year. “This may be an indication of a changing seasonal dynamic within the labour market, around when people start working after the summer holiday period,” Mr Jarvis said.
Seasonally adjusted hours worked over the month fell by 2.5 percent. This partly reflects January being a popular time of year for workers to take annual leave. But Mr Jarvis said the drop in hours also reflected the continuation of a trend that began in mid-2023 and has accelerated since October 2023. The annual growth rate in hours worked has slowed significantly to just 0.7 percent in January.
The proportion of Australians aged above 15 years participating in the workforce remained steady at 66.8 percent and the employment-to-population ratio fell 0.1 percent to 64.1 percent. Both measures remain at near historical highs and well above pre-COVID levels. The data shows 6.6 percent of employed people would have liked to work more hours than they did. This is referred to as the rate of ‘underemployment’, and in seasonally adjusted terms it has risen 0.8 percent since the most recent low in February 2023.
CBA Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird, said the rate of increase in unemployment was somewhat alarming. “The jobless rate has risen quite sharply over the last five months,” Mr Aird said. “For context it was 3.6 percent in September 2023. A lift of 0.5ppts in just five months is significant and somewhat concerning. Both the unemployment and underemployment rates are at their highest levels since January 2022.”
Mr Aird highlighted that just 500 people had a new job in January, reflecting significant weakness in employment growth. Consensus market analyst expectations had been 25,000 and CBA was more bullish at 40,000. In January 2022, employment rose by 65,000 and in January 2023 it lifted by 25,000. CBA has previously predicted that weak per capita employment growth will result in the labour market deteriorating more materially than the Reserve Bank (RBA) currently forecasts.
The RBA expects unemployment to reach 4.3 percent by the year’s end, and Mr Aird said this looks too low. “We see the unemployment rate rising to 4.5 percent by end-2024. We believe RBA rate cuts will be required this year to prevent the unemployment rate from rising much above 4.5 percent.”
CBA is tipping that the RBA will commence interest rate cuts in September. It predicts a total reduction of 75 basis points in 2024 and another 75 basis points in the first half of 2025.
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We’re thinking about productivity at work all wrong, Cal Newport says. But how do we tell the boss that?
You’re oh so busy. You’re on Slack and email and back-to-back Zoom calls , sometimes all at once . Are you actually getting real work done?
Cal Newport doesn’t think so.
“It’s like, wait a second, none of this mattered,” says the Georgetown University computer science professor and crusader for focus in a distracted age.
Newport, 41, says we can accomplish more by shedding the overload. He calls his solution “slow productivity”—and has a book by the same name —a way for high achievers to say yes to fewer things, do them better and even slack off in strategic doses. Top-notch quality is the goal, and frenetic activity the enemy.
This, he told me, is the thing that can save our jobs from AI and layoffs, and even make shareholders happy.
I had questions. Can we really be less is more at work, or have we grown addicted to constantly crossing endless tasks off our to-do lists? What will our bosses think?
After all, so many of us yearn for a burnout cure-all that will preserve our high-achiever status, and this isn’t the first you-can-have-it-all proposition we’ve heard. Champions of the four-day workweek promise we can ditch an entire workday just by working smarter. Remote-work die-hards swear it’s a win for employers and employees. Few dreams are more seductive than bidding goodbye to hustle culture, while still reaping the benefits of said hustle.
Newport acknowledges that saying no to preserve our productivity can be a delicate act. He knows that entrepreneurs have more flexibility, but says those of us who answer to managers can carve this out too. We might even find we have more power and value to our employers.
“You should take that value out for a little bit of a spin,” he suggests. He offers some pointers.
The way we work now is a “serious economic drag,” Newport says. Knowledge workers have devolved into a form of productivity that’s more about the vibes—stressed!—than actually making money for the company. Data from Microsoft finds that lots of us spend the equivalent of two workdays a week on meetings and email alone.
One mistake we make, Newport says, is taking on too many projects, then getting bogged down in the administrative overload—talking about the work, coordinating with others—that each requires. Work becomes a string of planning meetings, waiting on someone from another department to give us a go-ahead.
Newport recommends giving priority to a couple projects, then bumping the others to a waiting list in order of importance. Make that list public, say, in a Google doc you share with bosses and colleagues.
“When workloads are obfuscated behind black boxes, it’s just people throwing stuff at each other, it’s very dangerous to say no,” Newport says.
If someone comes to you with more work, have them consider where it should go on your list, Newport says.
When you do say yes, double the estimated timelines you set to complete a project. That’s how long it’ll take to do it well, he says. And try what he calls a “one for you, one for me strategy.” Every time you book an hour-long meeting, block an hour for independent work on your calendar.
It’s a foreign and bracing approach for those of us who reflexively say yes to work requests. Newport’s philosophy requires transparency and confidence. Instead of “let me see how fast I can turn that around!”, try, “This request will take six hours. I’ll have that time in three weeks.”
This could be heresy at some companies. The trick is in the delivery, he says. Never make it seem like work tasks are a burden you shouldn’t have to face. Instead, stress that you’re trying to be as effective as you can for the team and the company. Be positive, and deliver on the timelines you promise. You’ll be seen as someone who’s organised and on top of your game.
We think bosses want someone who’s always accessible—fast to respond, fast to jump into action, Newport says. But what bosses really want is to know that a project they hand you will get done.
Quiet quitting permanently is a bad idea, Newport says, but a little bit is good.
Don’t feel guilty, he adds. You’re working under a new, better system. We weren’t meant to work all out , every day, without seasonal shifts and pauses.
Pick a time—say, the month of July—to slow down. Don’t volunteer for extra work. Don’t offer Mondays as a possibility for meetings. Take on an easier project for cover.
He also recommends taking yourself out to a monthly movie during the workday. Say it’s a personal appointment, and enjoy the sense of control and creativity it brings.
You don’t have to nail a manifesto to the wall, he adds, or try to change the whole company culture. Instead, quietly carve out change for yourself.
The catch: You have to be really good at the part of your job that matters. And you have to get big stuff done. Remember, this is about being a happier high performer, not slacking.
“There’s no hiding,” Newport says.
I suspect this terrifies a lot of people. They’ve gotten good at being always on and typing up yet another meeting agenda. Tackling a major project or goal is often harder, and comes without a guarantee that you’re going to nail it.
Scary or not, real work is becoming imperative. AI is coming for the rote parts of our jobs. Leaders are sussing out the “nonsense” projects and roles in their ranks as they cut jobs, Newport says. No boss wants to be left with a team of people who are aces at responding to emails.
Mastering a valuable skill puts you in control. Newport writes of people who leave corporate America behind and move where they want , working remotely as contractors, charging wild fees for fewer hours of work. The more you shed the work that doesn’t matter, and spend that time getting better at the stuff that does, the more leeway you’ll get.
“The marketplace doesn’t care about your personal interest in slowing down,” Newport writes. “If you want more control over your schedule, you need something to offer in return.”
Figure that puzzle out, and you might just be able to have it all—high achievement, and your sanity.
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