Unemployment rises to its highest level in two years
Just 500 people started a new job in January this year
2 min
The unemployment rate has risen to its highest level in two years at 4.1 percent, according to new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The seasonally adjusted jobless rate increased by 0.1 percent in January, with the number of unemployed Australians increasing by 22,300 and the number of people with a new job increasing by just 500.
Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, said this was the first time since January 2022 that the unemployment rate is above 4 percent. Mr Jarvis pointed out that a higher-than-usual number of unemployed people were due to start a job or return to work within the next four weeks. There was a similar trend in January last year. “This may be an indication of a changing seasonal dynamic within the labour market, around when people start working after the summer holiday period,” Mr Jarvis said.
Seasonally adjusted hours worked over the month fell by 2.5 percent. This partly reflects January being a popular time of year for workers to take annual leave. But Mr Jarvis said the drop in hours also reflected the continuation of a trend that began in mid-2023 and has accelerated since October 2023. The annual growth rate in hours worked has slowed significantly to just 0.7 percent in January.
The proportion of Australians aged above 15 years participating in the workforce remained steady at 66.8 percent and the employment-to-population ratio fell 0.1 percent to 64.1 percent. Both measures remain at near historical highs and well above pre-COVID levels. The data shows 6.6 percent of employed people would have liked to work more hours than they did. This is referred to as the rate of ‘underemployment’, and in seasonally adjusted terms it has risen 0.8 percent since the most recent low in February 2023.
CBA Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird, said the rate of increase in unemployment was somewhat alarming. “The jobless rate has risen quite sharply over the last five months,” Mr Aird said. “For context it was 3.6 percent in September 2023. A lift of 0.5ppts in just five months is significant and somewhat concerning. Both the unemployment and underemployment rates are at their highest levels since January 2022.”
Mr Aird highlighted that just 500 people had a new job in January, reflecting significant weakness in employment growth. Consensus market analyst expectations had been 25,000 and CBA was more bullish at 40,000. In January 2022, employment rose by 65,000 and in January 2023 it lifted by 25,000. CBA has previously predicted that weak per capita employment growth will result in the labour market deteriorating more materially than the Reserve Bank (RBA) currently forecasts.
The RBA expects unemployment to reach 4.3 percent by the year’s end, and Mr Aird said this looks too low. “We see the unemployment rate rising to 4.5 percent by end-2024. We believe RBA rate cuts will be required this year to prevent the unemployment rate from rising much above 4.5 percent.”
CBA is tipping that the RBA will commence interest rate cuts in September. It predicts a total reduction of 75 basis points in 2024 and another 75 basis points in the first half of 2025.
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Overall, the season showed that share prices react less to whether profits rose or fell than to the gap between results and expectations
5 min
Reporting season has once again reminded investors that a strong profit does not guarantee a rising share price, and a large loss does not always trigger a sell-off. What matters most is how each result compares with expectations and, increasingly, what management says about the year ahead. During the August 2026 season, companies offering credible turnarounds or unexpectedly strong guidance were rewarded handsomely, while those flagging weaker margins, slowing demand or greater uncertainty were punished.
The following ranking draws on Morningstar’s review of 164 ASX-listed companies and measures each company’s share-price movement on the day it reported. This captures the market’s immediate response to the earnings announcement, before subsequent economic developments, dividends and company-specific news cloud the picture. Here are the five biggest winners, and the five hardest-hit losers, of the season so far.
The five winners
1. Bapcor (ASX:BAP): +41.0%
Bapcor delivered reporting season’s largest relief rally after presenting early evidence that its troubled automotive-parts business was stabilising. Although underlying revenue fell 1.8% to $1.92 billion and underlying NPAT collapsed 85% to $10.8 million, underlying EBITDA of $152.5 million exceeded guidance.
More importantly, working-capital initiatives released $68.5 million in the second half, lifting cash conversion to 109.4% and reducing net debt by 63% to $135 million. The statutory loss was $431.6 million, largely because of non-cash impairments. Investors focused on improving operational momentum, stronger liquidity and management’s expectation of modest FY27 revenue growth.
2. Zip Co (ASX:ZIP): +18.2%
Zip comfortably surpassed its FY26 targets, sending the buy-now-pay-later provider’s shares sharply higher. Transaction volume rose 23% to $16.7 billion, while cash earnings before tax, depreciation and amortisation jumped 58% to a record $268.9 million. Statutory profit climbed 46% to $116.4 million, and the cash operating margin expanded by 4.2 percentage points to 20%.
The strongest signal was guidance for FY27 cash earnings of $340 million—around 26% growth and above analysts’ forecasts. US transaction volume increased 42.5% and now represents three-quarters of group volume, offsetting weaker customer activity in Australia.
3. CSL (ASX:CSL): +17.3%
CSL’s result was hardly spectacular in isolation, but it cleared a market bar that had fallen dramatically following earlier downgrades and restructuring announcements. Underlying NPATA was US$3.1 billion, down 2% in constant-currency terms, while operating cash flow reached US$3.51 billion.
CSL maintained its full-year dividend at US$2.92 per share and completed a A$1 billion buyback. The real catalyst was FY27 guidance for approximately 5% underlying profit growth, compared with market expectations closer to 2%. After an extended period of earnings disappointments, investors interpreted the outlook as evidence that CSL’s core plasma business was approaching a sustainable recovery.
4. Judo Capital (ASX:JDO): +16.9%
Judo Capital demonstrated strong operating leverage as its specialist business-lending franchise expanded. Full-year profit before tax rose 34% to $168.1 million, while pre-provision profit increased 42%. Gross loans and advances grew 18% to $14.7 billion, reaching the top of the bank’s guidance range and comfortably exceeding broader system growth.
Deposits increased 24% to $12.2 billion, return on equity improved by 1.1 percentage points to 6.4%, and earnings per share rose 29% to 9.9 cents. Reaffirmation of the FY27 outlook gave investors confidence that loan growth could continue without sacrificing margins or credit quality.
5. Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL): +15.8%
The owner of Supercheap Auto, rebel, BCF and Macpac reported record sales of $4.2 billion, up 3.2%, despite cautious discretionary spending. Profitability went backwards: normalised profit before tax fell 7% to $306 million and normalised NPAT declined 2.8% to $226 million as transformation spending weighed on margins. Nevertheless, the result exceeded subdued expectations, online sales grew 5.3% and membership across the group’s loyalty programs reached 13.1 million. Investors were also encouraged by positive early FY27 trading, stable gross margins and continued market-share gains. A fully franked 33-cent final dividend added to the appeal.
The five losers
1. Hansen Technologies (ASX:HSN): –21.2%
Hansen’s historic result met expectations, but investors recoiled from its outlook. The utility and communications software provider achieved an underlying EBITDA margin of 31%, exceeding its 30% target, while generating strong cash flow. However, management designated FY27 an “investment and transition year”, signalling a roughly five-percentage-point margin contraction as spending on products, sales capabilities and organisational changes increased.
Revenue had already been broadly flat, leaving investors concerned that the investment program would depress earnings before new growth appeared. Leadership changes, including the chief executive’s departure, added uncertainty. Management expects revenue growth and margins above 30% to return in FY28, but the market was unwilling to wait.
2. Life360 (ASX:360): –19.4%
Life360’s headline growth was impressive: quarterly revenue rose 38% to US$159 million, subscription revenue increased 31%, and adjusted EBITDA climbed 53% to US$31.1 million. Monthly active users reached 102.4 million and paying circles grew 27% to 3.2 million. The sell-off reflected expectations rather than a collapsing business.
Net income fell 18%, the net margin contracted from 6% to 3%, hardware shipments dropped 18%, and full-year EBITDA guidance was merely maintained. After a strong valuation run, investors wanted a larger upgrade and clearer evidence that heavy investment in advertising, international expansion and artificial intelligence would generate additional earnings.
3. PEXA Group (ASX:PXA): –17.0%
PEXA reported a 7% increase in continuing-operations revenue and 12% EBITDA growth to $152 million, accompanied by a two-percentage-point margin expansion. Free cash flow increased 39%, suggesting the core Australian electronic-conveyancing platform remained highly profitable. Investors instead concentrated on management’s warning that property-transfer volumes could decline, alongside regulatory uncertainty surrounding the fees PEXA can charge.
The company is also continuing to invest heavily in its loss-making international expansion. Morningstar considered the market reaction excessive, arguing that structural transfer-volume assumptions had not materially changed, but the combination of softer near-term activity and regulatory risk overwhelmed the respectable headline numbers.
4. SEEK (ASX:SEK): –14.3%
SEEK produced solid FY26 figures, including 10% revenue growth to $1.20 billion, a 15% rise in EBITDA and 28% growth in adjusted earnings per share. It also lifted its fully franked annual dividend by 13% to a record 52 cents. Those achievements were overshadowed by falling paid job-ad volumes and cautious FY27 assumptions.
The statutory accounts included a $201 million loss from the SEEK Growth Fund and $377 million of significant items, making the headline result considerably less attractive. Investors were particularly concerned that economic weakness could limit volumes while the company continued investing in platform integration and artificial-intelligence products.
5. JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH): –12.3%
JB Hi-Fi’s full-year result was broadly respectable, with group sales rising 5% to $11.1 billion and underlying earnings per share increasing 6% to $4.48. The damage came from its current-trading update. Australian sales were almost flat during the June quarter and deteriorated further in July, while earnings in the core Australian electronics business fell 3.6%.
Housing-related categories were particularly weak as higher living costs and interest rates constrained household budgets. With JB Hi-Fi entering the season on a demanding valuation, an in-line historic result was not sufficient: the loss of sales momentum prompted investors to rapidly reduce their expectations for FY27.
Overall, the season showed that share prices react less to whether profits rose or fell than to the gap between results and expectations. Bapcor was rewarded for being less troubled than feared, while several fundamentally profitable companies were punished because their outlooks failed to justify elevated valuations.
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