Where to Look for the Next Wall Street Blowup
Kanebridge News
    HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $1,656,430 (+0.65%)       Melbourne $994,677 (+0.27%)       Brisbane $978,777 (+0.15%)       Adelaide $878,311 (-0.89%)       Perth $857,374 (-0.27%)       Hobart $742,122 (-0.64%)       Darwin $666,990 (-0.54%)       Canberra $987,062 (-0.84%)       National $1,052,287 (+0.12%)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $750,216 (+0.60%)       Melbourne $492,069 (-0.93%)       Brisbane $539,184 (+0.19%)       Adelaide $444,416 (-2.21%)       Perth $457,888 (+0.17%)       Hobart $527,154 (-0.12%)       Darwin $344,216 (+0.22%)       Canberra $504,424 (-0.33%)       National $530,515 (-0.07%)                HOUSES FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 10,120 (-121)       Melbourne 15,095 (-40)       Brisbane 7,990 (0)       Adelaide 2,438 (+11)       Perth 6,327 (-40)       Hobart 1,294 (-21)       Darwin 238 (+1)       Canberra 1,020 (+13)       National 44,522 (-197)                UNITS FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 8,780 (+4)       Melbourne 8,222 (-18)       Brisbane 1,619 (+1)       Adelaide 396 (-4)       Perth 1,599 (+9)       Hobart 213 (+10)       Darwin 400 (-6)       Canberra 1,003 (-24)       National 22,232 (-28)                HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $820 (+$20)       Melbourne $610 (+$10)       Brisbane $640 (+$3)       Adelaide $610 (+$10)       Perth $670 ($0)       Hobart $550 ($0)       Darwin $700 ($0)       Canberra $680 (-$10)       National $669 (+$5)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $775 (+$15)       Melbourne $550 ($0)       Brisbane $630 (-$20)       Adelaide $500 (+$5)       Perth $628 (+$8)       Hobart $450 ($0)       Darwin $500 (-$15)       Canberra $570 ($0)       National $591 (+$)                HOUSES FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 5,426 (-22)       Melbourne 5,783 (+92)       Brisbane 4,042 (+149)       Adelaide 1,399 (+12)       Perth 2,345 (+25)       Hobart 383 (-2)       Darwin 94 (-10)       Canberra 595 (-9)       National 20,067 (+235)                UNITS FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 8,835 (+301)       Melbourne 4,537 (+107)       Brisbane 2,209 (+57)       Adelaide 391 (-8)       Perth 741 (-7)       Hobart 137 (+5)       Darwin 152 (-14)       Canberra 612 (+17)       National 17,614 (+458)                HOUSE ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND       Sydney 2.57% (↑)      Melbourne 3.19% (↑)      Brisbane 3.40% (↑)      Adelaide 3.61% (↑)      Perth 4.06% (↑)      Hobart 3.85% (↑)      Darwin 5.46% (↑)        Canberra 3.58% (↓)     National 3.30% (↑)             UNIT ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND       Sydney 5.37% (↑)      Melbourne 5.81% (↑)        Brisbane 6.08% (↓)     Adelaide 5.85% (↑)      Perth 7.13% (↑)      Hobart 4.44% (↑)        Darwin 7.55% (↓)     Canberra 5.88% (↑)      National 5.80% (↑)             HOUSE RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 0.8% (↑)      Melbourne 0.7% (↑)      Brisbane 0.7% (↑)      Adelaide 0.4% (↑)      Perth 0.4% (↑)      Hobart 0.9% (↑)      Darwin 0.8% (↑)      Canberra 1.0% (↑)      National 0.7% (↑)             UNIT RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 0.9% (↑)      Melbourne 1.1% (↑)      Brisbane 1.0% (↑)      Adelaide 0.5% (↑)      Perth 0.5% (↑)      Hobart 1.4% (↑)      Darwin 1.7% (↑)      Canberra 1.4% (↑)      National 1.1% (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL HOUSES AND TREND         Sydney 30.3 (↓)       Melbourne 31.5 (↓)       Brisbane 31.7 (↓)       Adelaide 25.7 (↓)       Perth 35.4 (↓)     Hobart 33.7 (↑)      Darwin 36.2 (↑)        Canberra 32.0 (↓)     National 32.1 (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL UNITS AND TREND         Sydney 31.3 (↓)       Melbourne 31.9 (↓)       Brisbane 32.1 (↓)       Adelaide 24.8 (↓)       Perth 38.7 (↓)       Hobart 37.6 (↓)     Darwin 46.5 (↑)        Canberra 39.2 (↓)     National 35.3 (↑)            
Share Button

Where to Look for the Next Wall Street Blowup

The tide’s definitely gone out in markets this year, but finance has come through with few problems—so far.

By JAMES MACKINTOSH
Tue, May 31, 2022 11:36amGrey Clock 4 min

When the tide goes out you find out who was swimming naked, Warren Buffett memorably said. The tide’s definitely gone out in markets this year, but finance has come through with few problems. Is it possible that this time not many were skinny-dipping?

The optimistic view is that the typical culprits—speculators using borrowed money—had been caught out already in the past two years and so weren’t up to their usual tricks. The pessimistic view is that the blowups are still to come.

Start with the positive: the list of recent crises that made investors reassess the dangers. The shock of the pandemic in early 2020revealed serious problems with leveraged trading and overnight borrowing in Treasurys. The Federal Reserve stepped in and backstopped the market, but fixed-income hedge funds that lost big as Treasurys moved in the wrong direction cut back.

In January 2021, short sellers were hit as Redditors piled into meme stocks such as GameStop, driving up their prices and causing multibillion-dollar losses for those betting against them. Melvin Capital, which was heavily short GameStop, finally shut down this year. Other hedge funds took note, and concentrated short positions were rethought.

Then in March last year—when the market was still super-bullish—hedge fund Archegos blew up, causing US$10 billion or so of losses to investment banks that had unwisely lent it money. Soul-searching at the investment banks means they have re-examined their hedge-fund lending, while Credit Suisse decided to pull out of the business altogether. Again, greater powers given to risk managers mean there is less risk of a repeat.

Roll forward to the autumn and currency and bond traders began preparing for rate rises, led by surprisingly hawkish talk from the Bank of England. But prices snapped back abruptly in November when the Bank didn’t follow through with the expected tightening, again giving funds that trade on macroeconomic news a dry run for the volatility that has dominated markets globally since.

All of these big but not huge shocks helped ensure that risk-taking was cut back, meaning there were fewer highly leveraged players who might be taken out by the extreme moves of 2022 in stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies.

So far there has been only one true catastrophe in traditional finance, the freezing of the nickel market when the London Metal Exchange foolishly decided to save a Chinese firm caught out by massive wrong-way bets. But bad as that was, it was never going to be enough to take down important parts of the financial system.

There have been some total disasters in crypto, notably the collapse of the Terra “stablecoin,” but the links to traditional finance remain small enough that this matters little to the mainstream.

The other important pillar of support is that banks are significantly stronger than in the past couple of decades, thanks to post-2008 reforms. They can weather bad times more easily as a result.

So much for the good news. The prevailing mood of finance executives I’ve asked about the lack of trouble is summed up by a repeated response: “So far.”

Long before Mr. Buffett discussed naked swimmers, economist John Kenneth Galbraith invented the “bezzle”—fraudulent losses accumulated in the good times that are only discovered when the economy weakens. After a decadelong bull market with only the briefest of interruptions in 2020, there could be plenty of bezzles yet to emerge.

The biggest bezzles in recent history took painfully long to emerge. After the bursting of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, it was 18 months before accounting fraud took down power company and leveraged energy trader Enron in what was then the biggest-ever bankruptcy. After the 2008 financial crisis, scandals continued for years across both finance and real-economy businesses.

The feedback loop from finance to the real economy and back to finance takes time to create serious problems, too. Already the weakest and most indebted developing countries are in trouble, with Sri Lanka in crisis and Ghana imposing fierce austerity to keep finances in order. The rising dollar and higher U.S. bond yields hurt governments and countries that chose to borrow in dollars and have a mismatch of dollar costs and local-currency income.

In 1994 and 1997-1998, it took more than a year for emerging-market crises—in 1994 Mexico’s “Tequila crisis,” in 1997 the Asian devaluations followed by Russia’s domestic-debt default—to feed back to Wall Street. When they did, Wall Street’s financial stability wobbled. More worryingly, the loss for investors in benchmark 10-year Treasurys from their peak is already much bigger than the shock of 1994.

There are two new risks that history doesn’t help with. The first is the unprecedented amount of liquidity that has been pumped into finance by central banks buying bonds. A lack of liquidity is what usually creates financial problems, as it prevents debts being rolled over. As the Fed and other central banks drain liquidity, problems might reveal themselves.

The second is that there’s a massive, and unknown, amount of private debt issued by lightly regulated shadow banks. My worry isn’t mainly that the lending turns sour (although it might). Rather, the danger is that the private-debt boom turns out to be a function of easy money. If investors prove less willing to lock up their money in private-debt funds as interest rates make mainstream investments more attractive, there will be a steady withdrawal of lending capacity. That could hold back the economy and make it harder for companies to refinance loans. These sorts of knock-on effects could take years to feed through into financial trouble.

I suspect there are plenty of underdressed bathers still to be exposed. I hope the crisis practice runs of the past two years mean there is less risk of Wall Street coming to a sudden stop.

Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: May 31, 2022.



MOST POPULAR
11 ACRES ROAD, KELLYVILLE, NSW

This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan

35 North Street Windsor

Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.

Related Stories
Money
Boost for World Economy as U.S., Eurozone Accelerate in Tandem
By JOSHUA KIRBY 25/05/2024
Money
Young Australians cut back on essentials while Baby Boomers spend freely
By Bronwyn Allen 24/05/2024
Money
Metallica’s European Tour Showcases Renewable-Energy Big Rigs—And Their Limits
By PAUL BERGER 24/05/2024
Boost for World Economy as U.S., Eurozone Accelerate in Tandem

Surveys point to a fresh acceleration in the U.S., even as growth in the eurozone strengthens

By JOSHUA KIRBY
Sat, May 25, 2024 3 min

Global economic growth is becoming more broad based, with surveys indicating that business activity in both the U.S. and the eurozone gained momentum in May.

The eurozone economy contracted in the second half of 2023 following a surge in energy and food prices triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent rise in interest rates intended to tame that inflation.

By contrast, the U.S. economy expanded strongly over the same period, opening up an unusually wide growth gap with the eurozone. That gap narrowed as the eurozone returned to growth in the first three months of the year, while the U.S. slowed.

However, surveys released Thursday point to a fresh acceleration in the U.S., even as growth in the eurozone strengthened. That bodes well for a global economy that relied heavily on the U.S. for its dynamism in 2023.

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI —which gauges activity in the manufacturing and services sectors—rose to 54.4 in May from 51.3 in April, marking a 25-month high and the first time since the beginning of the year that the index hasn’t slowed. A level over 50 indicates expansion in private-sector activity.

“The data put the U.S. economy back on course for another solid gross domestic product gain in the second quarter,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Eurozone business activity in turn increased for the third straight month in May, and at the fastest pace in a year, the surveys suggest. The currency area’s joint composite PMI rose to 52.3 from 51.7.

The uptick was led by powerhouse economy Germany, where continued strength in services and improvement in industry drove activity to its highest level in a year. That helped the manufacturing sector in the bloc as a whole grow closer to recovery, reaching a 15-month peak.

By contrast, surveys of purchasing managers pointed to a slowdown in the U.K. economy following a stronger-than-expected start to the year that saw it outpace the U.S. The survey was released a day after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a surprise election for early July, banking on signs of an improved economic outlook to turn around a large deficit in the opinion polls.

Similar surveys pointed to a further acceleration in India’s rapidly-expanding economy, and to a rebound in Japan, where the economy contracted in the first three months of the year. In Australia, the surveys pointed to a slight slowdown in growth during May.

Businesses reported that they were raising their prices at the slowest pace since November, which should reassure the European Central Bank. However, the eurozone continued to add jobs in May, suggesting that wages might not cool as rapidly as the ECB had hoped.

The ECB released figures Thursday that showed wages negotiated by labor unions in the eurozone were 4.7% higher in the first quarter than a year earlier, a faster increase than the 4.5% recorded in the final three months of 2023

The ECB has signalled it will lower its key interest rate in early June, while the Fed is waiting for evidence that a slowdown in inflation will resume after setbacks this year.

Nevertheless, eurozone businesses and households shouldn’t bank on successive cuts to borrowing costs, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said. “There is a huge degree of uncertainty,” he said. “We have made no decisions on the number of interest rate cuts or on their size,” he said in an interview published Thursday. “We will see how economic data evolve.”

Continued resilience in the eurozone economy would likely make the ECB more cautious about lowering borrowing costs after its first move, economist Franziska Palmas at Capital Economics wrote in a note. “If the economy continues to hold up well, cuts further ahead may be slower than we had anticipated,” she said.

– Edward Frankl contributed to this story.

MOST POPULAR
11 ACRES ROAD, KELLYVILLE, NSW

This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan

35 North Street Windsor

Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.

Related Stories
Money
The fast-approaching ‘silver tsunami’ set to hit the Australian economy
By Bronwyn Allen 23/05/2024
Lifestyle
Anger Does a Lot More Damage to Your Body Than You Realise
By SUMATHI REDDY 24/05/2024
Money
Boost for World Economy as U.S., Eurozone Accelerate in Tandem
By JOSHUA KIRBY 25/05/2024
0
    Your Cart
    Your cart is emptyReturn to Shop