Australia’s strongest state economy is no longer on the eastern seaboard
CommSec research reveals this state is leading the country in economic growth, unemployment, construction and dwelling starts
CommSec research reveals this state is leading the country in economic growth, unemployment, construction and dwelling starts
South Australia is currently the strongest state or territory economy in the country, with economic activity 9.1 percent above its decade-average in the December quarter, according to CommSec research. NSW was second with economic output running 8.6 percent above its long-run average, followed by Victoria with 8.5 percent, the ACT at 8.3 percent and Western Australia at 6 percent.
Economic activity in both Queensland and Tasmania was 4.5 percent above average while the Northern Territory underperformed its long-term average by 0.5 percent.
The CommSec research ranks states and territories on several key economic metrics and compares the latest quarterly data with each area’s decade average. South Australia ranks first on four of the eight key indicators. They are economic growth, unemployment, construction and dwelling starts.
Western Australia ranks first on population growth and business and equipment investment. Population growth has been a key element in Perth and regional Western Australia becomingthe country’s hottest property markets over the past 12 months. CoreLogic figures released this week show home values are up 21.1 percent in Perth and 13.3 percent in the state’s regions.
Despite high inflation, retail spending remained above the long-term average in all states and territories in the December quarter. The ACT led with retail expenditure 12.2 percent higher than its long-term average, followed by Western Australia with 11.3 percent, Victoria at 11.2percent and Queensland at 11.1 percent.
Queensland is in the top spot for new home loans. Propelling this is very strong internal migration and a doubling of the First Home Owners Grant to $30,000 from 20 November last year. New home loans issued to first home buyers in November surged to a 15-month high, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Queensland is currently the second strongest housing market, with home values up 16.1 percent in Brisbane and 11.2 percent in regional areas over the past year.
In all states and territories except the Northern Territory, housing finance commitments remained above decade averages in the December quarter. The value of home loans in Queensland was 21.1 percent higher than the state’s long-term average. The next strongest was Western Australia, up 17.5 percent, South Australia, up 14.2 percent, and the ACT, up 12 percent. The new CoreLogic data reveals 15 consecutive months of growth in the national median price, despite high interest rates.
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When will Berkshire Hathaway stop selling Bank of America stock?
Berkshire began liquidating its big stake in the banking company in mid-July—and has already unloaded about 15% of its interest. The selling has been fairly aggressive and has totaled about $6 billion. (Berkshire still holds 883 million shares, an 11.3% interest worth $35 billion based on its most recent filing on Aug. 30.)
The selling has prompted speculation about when CEO Warren Buffett, who oversees Berkshire’s $300 billion equity portfolio, will stop. The sales have depressed Bank of America stock, which has underperformed peers since Berkshire began its sell program. The stock closed down 0.9% Thursday at $40.14.
It’s possible that Berkshire will stop selling when the stake drops to 700 million shares. Taxes and history would be the reasons why.
Berkshire accumulated its Bank of America stake in two stages—and at vastly different prices. Berkshire’s initial stake came in 2017 , when it swapped $5 billion of Bank of America preferred stock for 700 million shares of common stock via warrants it received as part of the original preferred investment in 2011.
Berkshire got a sweet deal in that 2011 transaction. At the time, Bank of America was looking for a Buffett imprimatur—and the bank’s stock price was weak and under $10 a share.
Berkshire paid about $7 a share for that initial stake of 700 million common shares. The rest of the Berkshire stake, more than 300 million shares, was mostly purchased in 2018 at around $30 a share.
With Bank of America stock currently trading around $40, Berkshire faces a high tax burden from selling shares from the original stake of 700 million shares, given the low cost basis, and a much lighter tax hit from unloading the rest. Berkshire is subject to corporate taxes—an estimated 25% including local taxes—on gains on any sales of stock. The tax bite is stark.
Berkshire might own $2 to $3 a share in taxes on sales of high-cost stock and $8 a share on low-cost stock purchased for $7 a share.
New York tax expert Robert Willens says corporations, like individuals, can specify the particular lots when they sell stock with multiple cost levels.
“If stock is held in the custody of a broker, an adequate identification is made if the taxpayer specifies to the broker having custody of the stock the particular stock to be sold and, within a reasonable time thereafter, confirmation of such specification is set forth in a written document from the broker,” Willens told Barron’s in an email.
He assumes that Berkshire will identify the high-cost Bank of America stock for the recent sales to minimize its tax liability.
If sellers don’t specify, they generally are subject to “first in, first out,” or FIFO, accounting, meaning that the stock bought first would be subject to any tax on gains.
Buffett tends to be tax-averse—and that may prompt him to keep the original stake of 700 million shares. He could also mull any loyalty he may feel toward Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan , whom Buffett has praised in the past.
Another reason for Berkshire to hold Bank of America is that it’s the company’s only big equity holding among traditional banks after selling shares of U.S. Bancorp , Bank of New York Mellon , JPMorgan Chase , and Wells Fargo in recent years.
Buffett, however, often eliminates stock holdings after he begins selling them down, as he did with the other bank stocks. Berkshire does retain a smaller stake of about $3 billion in Citigroup.
There could be a new filing on sales of Bank of America stock by Berkshire on Thursday evening. It has been three business days since the last one.
Berkshire must file within two business days of any sales of Bank of America stock since it owns more than 10%. The conglomerate will need to get its stake under about 777 million shares, about 100 million below the current level, before it can avoid the two-day filing rule.
It should be said that taxes haven’t deterred Buffett from selling over half of Berkshire’s stake in Apple this year—an estimated $85 billion or more of stock. Barron’s has estimated that Berkshire may owe $15 billion on the bulk of the sales that occurred in the second quarter.
Berkshire now holds 400 million shares of Apple and Barron’s has argued that Buffett may be finished reducing the Apple stake at that round number, which is the same number of shares that Berkshire has held in Coca-Cola for more than two decades.
Buffett may like round numbers—and 700 million could be just the right figure for Bank of America.
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