Why 2025 Could Be a Great Year for Big Banks

Top global banks have taken off in recent years, but ascents can be bumpy. In 2025, they might get to relax while on cruise speed.

The Federal Reserve recently signaled that interest rates might only be cut twice in the year ahead as a result of stickier-than-expected inflation, prompting stocks generally to sell off. But rates being “less high for longer” is actually great news for banks, and the latest sign that 2025 might be a good year for almost all of the many business lines that comprise large universal lenders.

This hasn’t been the case in recent times, even when financial firms overall were doing really well. In 2022, the big rebound in global trade that followed production stoppages during the depths of the pandemic resulted in a surge in sales for such transaction-focused intermediaries as Citigroup , HSBC Holdings and BNP Paribas . Desks that trade fixed income, currencies and commodities, or FICC, saw client flows balloon, as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the start of the rate-tightening cycle sparked a sudden demand to hedge rates, foreign exchange and energy prices around the world. The likes of JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank benefited greatly.

But adverse monetary and geoeconomic conditions caused underwriting fees to collapse, as companies all simultaneously held off on issuing equity and debt.

Then came 2023. Large-bank revenue jumped once again, this time mostly driven by an 11% increase in net interest margins, Visible Alpha data shows. After a decade and a half, the industry was finally getting to benefit from a larger spread between what it was able to charge borrowers and pay to depositors. Yet, at the same time, dealmaking tumbled because of high borrowing costs and heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Some of the lopsidedness has persisted this past year, mostly because central banks have lowered rates again. That resulted in a fall in net interest income that has hit revenue in commercial and wealth-management arms, but also transaction banking, which does a lot of cash management for firms. Traders of government bonds and other rate-related products have had a tepid year. And, overall, revenue growth has slowed.

Nevertheless, 2024 is when the market truly rewarded bank stocks. The banking subcomponents of the S&P 500 and the Stoxx Europe 600 have returned 35% and 32%, respectively, compared with 25% and 6% for the broader indexes.

This underscores the importance that today’s investors attribute to getting predictable, well-diversified returns from their banks, rather than having another year with a quarter of revenue coming from FICC.

Indeed, this past year was still one of normalization. Mergers and initial public offerings bounced back a bit, and many corporate treasurers had to refinance their debt to avoid an incoming wall of bond maturities. And, even if investors eschewed government debt, they gobbled up the kinds of fixed-income products that offered a spread over it, such as corporate bonds, in an attempt to lock in high yields for the long run.

This is a good omen for the year ahead.

For the first time since 2021, all of the divisions of the world’s top banks except FICC trading are forecast to expand revenue, according to a median of analyst estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. Even that dark spot might end up brightening: As of early December, yields on three-month Treasury bills have been trading below those of 10-year paper for the first time since 2022, which might soon trigger renewed enthusiasm for fixed income.

Regardless, steeper yield curves will almost certainly be good for banks, serving to widen net interest margins.

To be sure, officials easing borrowing costs by less than previously expected could hit consumers and cause trouble for some commercial real-estate loans. The European economy in particular is quite weak. Still, the impact is likely to be small. Default rates remain low.

Crucially, 2025 looks likely to be the year in which the advisory business gathers momentum after a tentative comeback. Private-equity firms are being pressured to start exiting their investments after years of waiting it out. While sponsors have been coming up with new delaying tactics, such as rolling over assets into “continuation funds,” the management-consulting firm Bain estimated that 46% of companies owned by private-equity funds were held for four years or longer by the end of 2023, which was the highest level since 2012.

If, on top of this, the Trump administration eases regulatory scrutiny both on the financial sector and on mergers, banks will enjoy yet another tailwind , with Goldman Sachs probably coming out on top.

Banks might finally be firing on all cylinders.

Girard-Perregaux has revealed the first watches created through its partnership with Atlassian Williams F1 Team, bringing the British racing team’s colours to one of Switzerland’s most recognisable integrated-bracelet designs.

The collaboration comprises two 42mm steel watches: the time-and-date Laureato Williams Edition and the more technical Laureato Chronograph Williams Edition.

Both retain the familiar architecture of the Laureato, including its octagonal bezel, integrated bracelet and mix of polished and satin-finished surfaces. The influence of Williams is comparatively restrained, appearing through colour, discreet branding and details inspired by the team’s current Formula 1 car.

It is a welcome departure from the oversized logos and literal automotive references that can characterise motorsport watches.

The Williams FW48 inspires the dial

The centrepiece of both models is a blue Clous de Paris dial informed by the livery of the Williams FW48, the car being campaigned by the team during the 2026 Formula 1 season.

A small Williams “W” replaces the conventional marker at 12 o’clock, while the team emblem appears on the sapphire crystal caseback. Red accents echo the keyline used on the FW48 without overwhelming the established Laureato design.

The three-hand model offers the quieter interpretation. Baton-shaped, rhodium-plated hands and hour markers are filled with white-emitting luminescent material, while a date window sits at three o’clock.

The chronograph creates a more obvious connection with motorsport. Three subdials are framed by rhodium-plated rings, with red appearing on the small-seconds hand and the tip of the central chronograph seconds hand.

Both watches measure 42mm across and are water resistant to 100 metres. The standard Laureato has a case thickness of 10.68mm, while the additional mechanics of the chronograph increase its profile to 12.16mm.

Two in-house automatic movements

The Laureato Williams Edition is powered by Girard-Perregaux’s self-winding GP01800 calibre. The movement provides hours, minutes, central seconds and the date, with a minimum power reserve of 54 hours.

The Laureato Chronograph Williams Edition uses the automatic GP03300 calibre, which combines its chronograph functions with a date display and offers a minimum power reserve of 46 hours.

Both movements operate at 28,800 vibrations per hour and can be viewed through their sapphire crystal casebacks.

Their decoration provides a more traditional counterpoint to the Formula 1 association. Finishing techniques include Côtes de Genève, circular graining, bevelling, mirror polishing, satin finishing, engraving and snailing.

The result is less about reproducing the appearance of a racing car than identifying the common ground between two mechanical disciplines: precision, incremental development and the considerable work hidden beneath the finished product.

Parallel histories

The timing of the partnership draws attention to the remarkably similar ages of its two protagonists.

Girard-Perregaux introduced the original Laureato in 1975, establishing an integrated-bracelet sports watch with a distinctive octagonal bezel. Williams entered Formula 1 two years later in 1977.

Both have evolved continuously across the five decades since. The Laureato has moved through different sizes, materials and complications, while retaining its central design language. Williams, meanwhile, has remained one of Formula 1’s most historically significant teams.

That gives the collaboration greater credibility than a simple licensing exercise. Girard-Perregaux and Williams are not being connected solely through the familiar language of speed. Their stronger link is a shared dependence on engineering, testing and the accumulation of specialist knowledge.

The watches are described as the beginning of a longer collaboration, suggesting further Williams editions may follow.

Girard-Perregaux’s international website lists the Laureato Williams Edition at US$16,200 and the Laureato Chronograph Williams Edition at US$20,900. Australian pricing has not been announced.

Specifications

Girard-Perregaux Laureato Williams Edition 42mm

Reference: 81010-11-3680-1GM
Case: Steel
Diameter: 42mm
Thickness: 10.68mm
Crystal: Anti-reflective sapphire crystal
Dial: Blue Clous de Paris pattern
Movement: Automatic GP01800
Functions: Hours, minutes, central seconds and date
Power reserve: Minimum 54 hours
Water resistance: 100 metres
Bracelet: Integrated steel bracelet with triple-folding clasp
International price: US$16,200

Girard-Perregaux Laureato Chronograph Williams Edition 42mm

Reference: 81020-11-3681-1GM
Case: 904L steel
Diameter: 42mm
Thickness: 12.16mm
Crystal: Anti-reflective sapphire crystal
Dial: Blue Clous de Paris pattern with three chronograph counters
Movement: Automatic GP03300
Functions: Chronograph, hours, minutes, small seconds and date
Power reserve: Minimum 46 hours
Water resistance: 100 metres
Bracelet: Integrated 904L steel bracelet with triple-folding clasp
International price: US$20,900