U.S. Pursues India as a Supply-Chain Alternative to China
Biden administration turns to New Delhi as it seeks to steer critical technologies away from Beijing
Biden administration turns to New Delhi as it seeks to steer critical technologies away from Beijing
WASHINGTON—The Biden administration is turning to India for help as the U.S. works to shift critical technology supply chains away from China and other countries that it says use that technology to destabilise global security.
Administration officials hosted meetings this week with a delegation of Indian officials and U.S. industry executives, seeking to facilitate technology development and investment in India as part of a broader U.S. push to cultivate alternatives to China.
Challenges arising from Beijing’s expanding global influence have had “a profound impact on the thinking in Delhi just as they have had on the profound impact on the thinking in other capitals,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters on Tuesday. “There is an element of that that forms a backdrop for the discussions here.”
The meetings come on the heels of an agreement with Japan and the Netherlands to start restricting exports of advanced chip-manufacturing equipment to China, joining efforts by the Biden administration to slow China’s military development by cutting access to advanced technologies.
U.S. officials hope those export restrictions create opportunities in India and elsewhere. While India isn’t among the world’s top producers of semiconductors, New Delhi has sought to assert itself as a greater semiconductor player. India is an appealing partner for industries looking to diversify their supply sources. With a population of 1.4 billion people, the country has a massive source of labor and costs are relatively low.
On Tuesday, the administration hosted a task force organised by the Semiconductor Industry Association, which is working in partnership with the Indian Electronics and Semiconductor Association, to develop a “readiness assessment,” aimed at trying to accelerate cooperation and investments. The meetings were attended by top American executives from a range of industries, including defense giant Lockheed Martin and semiconductor producer Micron, administration officials said.
India’s national security adviser, Ajit Doval, led New Delhi’s delegation this week in meetings with Mr. Sullivan and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and other officials.
The meetings underscore a broader U.S. effort to meet challenges from China through alliances with other countries. The Biden administration has given priority to Washington’s relationship with what is known as the Quad—an alliance between India, Australia, Japan and the U.S. that has focused on countering Beijing.
“President Biden really believes that no successful and enduring effort to address any of the major challenges in the world today…is going to be effective without a close U.S.-India partnership at its heart,” a senior administration official said.
However, a number of challenges in recent months have strained relations between Washington and New Delhi. India has maintained a neutral stance on the war in Ukraine and has continued to purchase discounted oil from Russia, rebuffing the Biden administration’s offer to replace Russian oil with U.S. supplies. Instead, India has increased its imports of Russian crude.
Biden administration officials said they understand the enormous domestic demand facing India and said that India continues to buy oil well below the price cap agreed to by allies late last year.
The key, U.S. officials said, is to offer India alternatives. The administration remains hopeful that it can ween India off purchasing Russian military equipment by offering incentives for it to diversify. Mr. Sullivan said generally, the U.S. is doing that through joint production and development. Top priorities in that effort include joint development of jet engines, artillery systems, armoured infantry, vehicles and maritime security.
General Electric has just submitted a proposal to the U.S. government for a jointly produced jet engine in the defence technology space.
“This is the kind of thing where we’re looking to make fast and ambitious progress,” Mr. Sullivan said.
India has also expressed frustration that two years into the Biden administration, there remains no U.S. ambassador. Earlier this month, the White House submitted to the Senate dozens of presidential selections who failed to win confirmation last year.
India is among a number of countries to also call for an overhaul to the U.S. H-1B visa, a nonimmigrant visa that allows U.S. companies to employ foreign workers in specialty occupations that require theoretical or technical expertise. Advocates have called for reforms to the program, including an increase in the annual cap, as well as for a more simplified process.
The State Department has made some progress on the issue, but employers expect delays in obtaining visas to continue in some places, including India. Visitor visas will likely also remain problematic.
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A sharp rebound in tourism in Europe’s sunbelt powers its economic rebound as core manufacturing centres struggle to recover
Europe’s economy has a north-south divide—and now it’s the poorer south that is powering the region’s return to growth.
Southern Europe, which for decades has had lower growth, productivity and wealth than the north, powered an upside-down recovery on the continent at the start of the year. Buoyant tourism revenue around the Mediterranean helped to offset sluggishness in Europe’s manufacturing heartlands.
The south’s transformation from laggard into growth engine reflects both a rapid rebound in visitor numbers from the collapse during the Covid-19 pandemic and a series of blows the continent’s large manufacturing sector has suffered, from surging energy prices to trade conflicts.
Now growth in the south is more than offsetting the north’s manufacturing malaise: As a whole, the eurozone economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.3% in the first quarter, ending nearly 18 months of economic stagnation in a sign that the currency area is recovering from the damage done by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
It was the eurozone’s strongest performance since the third quarter of 2022, and approached the U.S. economy’s 1.6% first-quarter growth rate, which was a slowdown from a racy pace of 3.4% at the end of last year.
In the 2010s, Germany helped to drag the continent out of its debt crisis thanks to strong exports of cars and capital goods. Between 2021 and 2023, Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal contributed between a quarter and half of the European Union’s annual growth, according to a report last year by French credit insurer Coface —a trend now confirmed and amplified in the latest data.
In the first quarter, Spain was the fastest-growing of the big eurozone economies. It and Portugal recorded growth of 0.7% in the three months through the end of March from the previous quarter, while Italy’s economy grew by 0.3%. France and Germany both grew by 0.2%, the latter rebounding from a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter contraction at the end of last year.
This means Germany’s economy has grown by 0.3% in total since the end of 2019, compared with 8.7% for the U.S., 4.6% for Italy and 2.2% for France, according to UniCredit data.
In Spain, strong growth “seems to have been entirely due to strong tourism numbers,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds, an economist with Capital Economics. Tourism accounts for around 10% of the economies of Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal.
The euro rose by about a quarter-cent against the dollar, to $1.0725, after the latest growth and inflation data were published.
The recovery comes as the European Central Bank signals it is preparing to reduce interest rates in June after a historic run of increases since mid-2022 that took it the key rate to 4%. Inflation in the eurozone remained at 2.4% in April, while underlying inflation cooled slightly, from 2.9% to 2.7%, according to separate data published Tuesday.
“The ECB hawks will point to the strong GDP number as [an] argument that ECB can take its rates lower gradually,” said Kamil Kovar, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics.
The eurozone economy has flatlined since late 2022 as Russia’s attack on its neighbor sent food and energy prices soaring in Europe and sapped business and household confidence. Gross domestic product fell in both the third and fourth quarters of last year, meeting a definition of recession widely used in Europe, but not in the U.S.
Southern Europe is one of only a handful of regions where international tourist arrivals returned to pre pandemic levels last year, according to United Nations data. Tourism revenue across the EU was one-quarter higher in the three months through the end of last June than in the same period in 2019, according to Coface data.
The recovery in international tourism was “notably driven by the arrival of many Americans who…were able to take advantage of favorable exchange rates,” Coface analysts wrote. “On the other hand, the end of the zero-Covid policy in China has initiated a gradual return of Chinese tourists, although remaining below 2019 levels.”
In Portugal, the number of foreign tourists hit a record of more than 18 million last year, up 11% compared with the prepandemic year of 2019, official data showed in January. American tourists in particular have returned to Europe in force.
Tourist numbers in Asia Pacific and the Americas continued to lag 2019 levels by 35% and 10% last year, respectively, the data show.
It is unclear how much further the tourism boom can run, but economists expect the region’s economic recovery to strengthen later this year as cooling inflation boosts household spending power and lower energy costs aid factory output.
Recent surveys point to an improved outlook for growth. Consumer confidence has risen to its highest level in two years, and a leading business-sentiment index has shown steady improvement from the start of 2024.
“We think that the combination of a robust labor market, comparatively strong wage hikes and lower inflation compared with last year will finally lead to a moderate recovery in consumer spending in the next few quarters,” said Andreas Rees , an economist with UniCredit in Frankfurt.
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