While Everyone Else Fights Inflation, China Deflation Fears Deepen
Some economists see parallels between China and Japan, where growth stagnated and prices fell for years
5 min
Signs of deflation are becoming more prevalent across China, heaping extra pressure on Beijing to reignite growth or risk falling into an economic trap it could find hard to escape.
While the rest of the world tussles with inflation, China is at risk of experiencing a prolonged spell of falling prices that—if it takes root—could eat into corporate profits, sap consumer spending and push more people out of work. Its effects would ripple across the globe, easing prices for some products that countries like the U.S. buy from China, but would also deprive the world of important Chinese demand for raw materials and consumer goods, while also creating other problems.
Prices charged by Chinese factories that make products ranging from steel to cement to chemicals have been falling for months. Consumer prices, meanwhile, have gone flat, with prices for certain goods—including sugar, eggs, clothes and household appliances—now falling on a month-over-month basis amid weak demand.
Most economists think China will probably avoid a deep and lasting period of deflation. Its economy is growing, albeit sluggishly, and the government has unveiled a variety of small stimulus measures that could help more. Earlier in July, Liu Guoqiang, a Chinese central bank official, dismissed concerns that China is slipping toward deflation.
But some economists see alarming parallels between China’s current predicament and the experience of Japan, which struggled for years with deflation and stagnant growth.
In the 1990s, a collapse in stock markets and real-estate values in Japan pushed companies and households to drastically cut back spending to service burdensome debts—a so-called balance-sheet recession that some see taking shape in China today.
Data released Thursday showed industrial profits are sinking and average new home sale prices fell in June.
If China were to tip into protracted deflation, it has another big problem: Traditional methods of fighting it are either unpopular in Beijing, or lack potency due to the country’s heavy debt load and other issues. Beijing is wary of large deficit-financed spending programs that could juice growth and push prices higher, while big debts mean consumers and businesses are reluctant to borrow and spend.
“The big concern is whether the policy tools that they have will have much traction in terms of trying to avert deflation, or deal with deflationary pressures once they arrive,” said Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy and economics at Cornell University and a former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division.
For the global economy, extended deflation in China might help cool inflation elsewhere, including the U.S., since its factories make up such a large share of the world’s goods.
However, a flood of cut-price Chinese exports on global markets could squeeze out rival exporters in some countries, hurting jobs and investment in those economies. Chinese export prices for steel and chemicals fell by about a third over the 12 months through June.
A deflationary spell in China would also likely mean weaker Chinese demand for food, energy and raw materials, which big chunks of the world rely on for export earnings.
“The market is underestimating the deflationary impact on the global economy,” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong.
Consumer prices in the U.S. rose 3% in June from a year earlier, a sharp slowdown from the 8% annual rate a year earlier but still above the 2% rate targeted by the Federal Reserve. Annual inflation in the European Union last month was 6.4% as the region continues to feel the squeeze from high energy and food prices.
In China, annual consumer-price inflation in June was zero. Producer prices fell in China last month by 5.4% from a year earlier.
Subdued consumer spending is one big reason. Some idiosyncratic factors are also at play, including a steep rise last year in the price of pork—a staple in the Chinese diet—that hasn’t been repeated.
But weak price pressures are also a payback of sorts for China’s experience during the Covid-19 pandemic, when exports rocketed thanks to Western demand for gym equipment, home improvement supplies and other goods.
The demand surge helped push Chinese producer prices up 12% between the start of 2020 and their peak in April last year, according to an index calculated by Moody’s Analytics.
When governments lifted lockdowns and Western demand eased, the trend reversed. Producer prices began falling on a year-over-year basis in October and have kept falling every month since.
Chinese factories, which expanded to meet Western demand during the pandemic, now face overcapacity. The hope was that Chinese consumers would step into the breach and soak up excess inventories as export markets dried up. But that hasn’t happened, and as more businesses pivot toward selling into the domestic market, the downward pressure on prices is building.
With global energy and food prices also weaker than before, economists expect overall consumer prices in China to stay nearly flat, or even fall, in the coming months. In addition to many foodstuffs and clothing items, prices have also been falling for electric vehicles, as Chinese automakers and Tesla have slashed prices amid slower sales growth and in an effort to win more share in a crowded market.
China could escape further deflation if growth regains momentum later this year, helped by government stimulus, as some economists anticipate. Nomura economists expect annual consumer-price inflation in China of negative 0.2% in the third quarter, with inflation eventually turning positive again toward the end of the year.
The risk for China is that deflation proves more persistent than expected. Falling prices tend to squeeze spending as consumers await a better deal tomorrow, reinforcing a downward spiral.
The longer it lasts, the more severe its effects become. Entrenched deflation means debts become harder to bear as profits and incomes fall. Companies shed workers to fatten shrinking margins.
In Shanghai, Liu Wang has held off on plans to upgrade his apartment because he is worried about sinking more money into a property whose value he believes could keep dropping.
“The economic condition is highly uncertain now,” said Liu, who works at a logistics firm that is shifting its focus toward domestic business after its export business weakened. In his hometown of Qufu in China’s northeastern Shandong province, demand for homes has been tepid despite a drop in prices, he said.
“The housing bubble is still quite large,” Liu added. “I don’t see any reason why prices will go up.”
In Japan, deflation first appeared in 1995. Excluding a few respites, it more or less stuck around until the 2008-09 financial crisis. Even today, Japan is battling to sustain higher rates of price growth with ultraloose central bank policies.
One textbook response is a massive monetary expansion, lowering interest rates and printing money to spur borrowing and spending, which in theory should trigger more inflation.
But data show Chinese companies are reluctant to take on new debt to expand production, while droves of homeowners are choosing to repay mortgages early. Both are signs of weak demand for loans, muffling the effectiveness of interest-rate cuts.
A major reason is that many companies and households already have such large debts that they don’t want to add more. Household debt has surged to 1.5 times that of income, far above the level of most developed countries, including the U.S., according to calculations by Jens Presthus, associate director of Global Counsel, an advisory firm.
Deflation, or even just the fear of deflation, can make the problem worse. Borrowers worry the cost of servicing their debts is going to rise, so they respond by saving more and spending less.
“Deflation is particularly dangerous when there’s a lot of debt,” said Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets economist at BCA Research.
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From early financial mistakes to hard-earned habits, five high-performing leaders share how they spend, invest and think about wealth.
9 min
Five minutes doesn’t sound like much. But it’s enough time to tell whether someone really understands money or just talks about it. Because once the gloss is stripped away, what’s left is instinct. The early mistakes. The bad calls. The quiet pivots that no one brags about but shape everything that follows. Making money is one thing. Living with it, and not mishandling it, is another. Here, five executives talk about what they got wrong, what they’ve learned, and how they now actually spend, invest and think about wealth.
Andrew Raso: Founder, Online Marketing Gurus
Self-made millionaire Andrew Raso grew up in an ethnic household with a father in construction. Investing was not a priority, he recalls.
The co-founder and CEO of Online Marketing Gurus, a digital marketing platform that generated more than $30 million in revenue in the 204/25 financial year, admits he’s had to learn about handling money as his wealth has grown.
“If I had my time again, I would change my spending habits and would probably be a lot more wealthy as a result,” the Sydneysider tells Kanebridge Quarterly.
Raso, in his mid-30s, says that his biggest lessons have come from his losses.
Buying the wrong property and copping the losses upon sale. Feeling FOMO when buying crypto and making a purchase that lost money.
“I’ve learned a lot from the errors that I’ve made,” he says.
Raso admits that he gets more of a thrill out of working than watching money hit his bank account.
“I’ve had the cars, I’ve had the property, I’ve had the watches. Once you’ve had them, they’re not that exciting, but the process of earning money is pretty cool.”
What he won’t forget is being $45 million in property debt a few years ago.
“I’d never want to be in that position again,” he says.
“My investing strategy is a lot safer these days. I’m very cautious. I’d prefer to invest in things that don’t take as long to be realised so my family can be financially secure.
“Once you have a house paid off and a few investments, it then becomes about enjoying your money, rather than hoarding it. Giving back gives me a much bigger kick than spending these days.”
Daniel Wessels: CEO, Jacaranda Finance
Fintech founder Daniel Wessels knows only too well that money remains a taboo topic in Australia with many people.
He points to consumer surveys that reveal people are more likely to talk about their sex life with friends than their finances.
It’s a major concern for the man who founded Jacaranda Finance in 2013, which has helped countless people lift their credit scores and get their finances back on track.
“If people aren’t learning money habits at school and they aren’t discussing it with their friends, learning new strategies and better habits is difficult,” says Wessels, who is based in Brisbane.
He wants to see more people take the time to proactively understand where and why they are spending money.
“Everyone needs to have a financial strategy and a plan to measure if it’s working,” he says.
The father of two young children admits his week can be pretty fast-paced. Pomodoro clocks, sleep optimisation techniques and saying ‘no’ keep him on task during the week.
“I used to think I was fairly decent at managing time, but the whole game changed when we had kids,” he says.
“Now, I’ve got to get out of the house at a certain time and leave the office at a certain time for daycare pickup. I’ve got to be really specific about my tasks to maximise my week.”
Before he had a family, he loved heading out to one of the trendy new restaurants popping up in Brisbane.
But that happens less these days. He’s saving to build his forever home but admits that price rises have resulted in rising costs.
“It’s such a big project with so many variables that change quickly,” he says.
These days, Wessels likes to optimise his professional and personal life. “With only a finite amount of money, time and energy, you’ve got to be really good at deciding what you want to be good at,” he says.
He calls this ruthless prioritisation. He has a very specific focus on activities that prioritise health and wealth, adding experiences into the mix more recently. This has meant the addition of micro-holidays to his annual calendar.
Wessels works with a couple of financial advisers. That said, he also does his own due diligence before agreeing to investments.
“One likes private equity investments that pay cash every month and another prefers to focus on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange for buying shares because he’s bullish about that.” he says. “They’re each experts and really good at what they do.”
Jim Penman: CEO, Jim’s Group
He may have invested a lifetime building a franchise juggernaut that is reportedly a $1 billion a year empire, but Jim Penman insists he’s a frugal guy who prefers to spend time planting a tree in his garden than contemplating his wealth.
What started out as Jim’s Mowing back in 1989 became Jim’s Group. Today, there are 5,700 franchisees across Australia and New Zealand in the business that has become ubiquitous for being the local handyman company that households could rely on.
He may have built a successful business empire, but the Melburnian insists he’s stingy when it comes to money.
“I wear my clothes even today until they wear out. I’ve always had a very lean and mean attitude. I live a simple life. My personal needs are very modest and my finances are simple,” he says. Jim reveals he’s usually in his garden these days and rarely eats out or takes holidays.
He is also running for state politics in the November Victorian election.
“I’m not particularly money focused. I could tweak the franchise contract to put more fees in and double my profitability, but that’s not my goal or my aim. To be honest, I often make decisions that go against my financial self-interest,” he says.
Jim purchased his first brand new car three years ago, opting for an electric Volvo.
“Being rich is not my aim and it never has been. People think I’m a lot richer than I am. They think I’m a billionaire, which is kind of ridiculous,” he says.
In fact, he insists he carries debt, which is common for anyone in business. “If I wanted, I could pay it off in 18 months.”
While his competitors were spending on fancy office space, Penman was running his franchise from his basement, keeping business costs low. “When I started out, I didn’t have any concept of how big this business could be. But there has never been a plan to grow franchisee numbers.
“Our attrition rate is far more important, and how to reduce complaint rates and drive more enquiries through new software.”
He believes people these days worry too much about impressing others, which leads to spending on superficial things.
“I would rather than offer people advice on how to be happy, rather than how to become rich. It’s important to have a good income so you can support yourself. But life is more about purpose.”
Jim doesn’t bother with stocks or bonds. He only invests in his own business. “My rate of return on my business is substantial. I could buy back a regional franchise when they come on the market and get a 20-25 per cent annual rate of return, plus capital gains. There’s nothing like that available in the investment space.”
Nicola Beswick: Founder, White Rabbit Advisory
Rabbit Advisory founder.
A clothing allowance provided by her parents and then a part-time job during high school was the first taste of financial freedom for Nicola Beswick.
She quickly became a spender rather than saver, but she’s changed her tune over the years.
The founder of financial advice firm White Rabbit Advisory left behind a successful career in intellectual property law a year ago to become a financial adviser because she realised the potential that financial education could have on someone’s life.
Her journey began after coming across the book Rich Dad Poor Dad some years ago, which opened her eyes to the power that money could have on her life. This marked a time when she became serious about her finances.
“Financial education and investing over time can have a huge impact on a person, and that book got me thinking about money and financial education in the first place,” she says.
Nicola says years ago, her father was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis. When dealing with the devastating news and an uncertain future, her father discovered he was eligible to receive an income protection payout.
“This was the stone that rippled his pond and mine. A new complex world of finance opened up and I discovered my calling – helping people plan for a financially secure future.”
She hasn’t looked back. “Commercial law was very transactional. I don’t regret quitting at all. I’m much happier now helping people get their finances in order. Financial planning helps people change their lives. That was a really big driver for me.”
The Melburnian admits she’s learned plenty of lessons along the way as she embarks on the process of building wealth. She uses superannuation as an investment vehicle, favouring its tax advantages.
“I also built a nest egg outside of super, because you never know when the rules will change,” she says.
She prefers to set a financial goal and save up for something specific over time than rush out and make a purchase.
“It’s a really powerful thing to wait before making a purchase,” she says.
Her current financial goals involve renovating her heritage-listed home. “We will keep the façade and gut it to rebuild. That’s a major expense for us on the horizon.”
While holidays are rare, she will spend on overseas trips on occasion. “I’m terrible at taking time off. I’m always working.”
Sam Riley: CEO, Drova
Sam Riley was in his 20s when he set out to amass enough money to be able to retire by the age of 40 if he wanted to.
“The goal was always to be doing something by 40 that kept me engaged enough that I didn’t actually want to retire because I was happy,” he says.
An entrepreneur at heart, Sam started a juice and espresso bar when he was 21, which didn’t work out. His next venture was a technology business, Ansarada, an ASX-listed company he ultimately sold nearly two years ago for $250 million.
The sale set him up for life, but he’s not one to rest on his laurels, launching into the complex world of artificial ntelligence with his next technology play, a company called Drova.
The technology startup simplifies risk, compliance and resilience for small businesses. Sam believes it’s got potential to become a tech juggernaut in time.
Having early financial success has meant he has the luxury of slow mornings and working in short bursts throughout the day, problem solving, experimenting with what works and figuring out how to harness AI.
“I favour a more sustainable approach to working these days. More frequent breaks. Making sure not to deteriorate my capacity,” he says.
It was a hard slog. He admits he touched the fringes of serious burnout when he was younger, which he works hard to avoid these days.
“Every business venture has exposed a gap in my skills that I’ve worked to close. Whether that’s marketing or managing people, closing those gaps along the way is how you get more effective at generating wealth,” he says.
The secret to his success has been finding ways to bolster value in the corporate world, finding ways to bring more to the table. Sam admits he spends too much money on travel, food and niche vinyl audio equipment, like turntables. He prefers to invest in experiences rather than things.
But it can get expensive. Like a recent trip to Antarctica to stay in a lodge for a week. “The thing is I didn’t like having these experiences on my own, so I have to bring family or other people and then pay for them.”
Sam describes his investment portfolio as balanced. While he continues to invest in entrepreneurial ventures, he admits he has a safe foundational platform to his investment approach.
“Over the years, I’ve added a lot more dividend stocks and protective assets like gold and silver, and some index funds.
“When I was younger, I didn’t appreciate the value of being safe and boring in the investment world.”
He says a lot of his investments used to be leading edge and visionary. “Some of them work, and some of them don’t. I didn’t really have much balance in my portfolio. I still invest in entrepreneurial things, but am much more conscious of taking a more even-handed approach,” he says.
This article appeared in the Winter 26 issue of Kanebridge Quarterly, which you can buy here.
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