DOUBLE-DIGIT HOUSE PRICE GROWTH ARRIVES AHEAD OF EXPECTATIONS
Australia’s housing market defies forecasts as prices surge past pandemic-era benchmarks.
2 min
Australian house prices are surging again, delivering double-digit annual growth months ahead of schedule.
Nationally, the median house price climbed 1.1 per cent in October to $940,000, lifting annual growth to 10.6 per cent, the first double-digit increase since the 2021–22 property boom.
Market Resilience Surprises Analysts
The acceleration comes earlier than expected, according to Ray White Group Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee, who says the milestone was originally forecast for the end of the year.
“Stronger-than-expected October gains and continued tight supply across most markets have pushed growth ahead of schedule,” Conisbee said. “This shows how resilient demand has remained through spring.”
Perth (+14.8 per cent), Brisbane (+12.5 per cent) and Adelaide (+10.8 per cent) continue to lead the charge among capital cities, while Sydney (+8.6 per cent) and Melbourne (+6.5 per cent) show steady, consistent increases.
Regional Markets Extend Their Lead
Beyond the capitals, regional Australia is powering ahead, particularly in the resource states.
Regional Western Australia jumped 16.4 per cent year-on-year, and regional Queensland followed close behind at 14.5 per cent, as population growth and affordability continue to drive demand.
Units Outperform Houses
Unit prices rose even more sharply in October, up 1.4 per cent to $710,000, marking 9.2 per cent annual growth. Conisbee said affordability pressures, new first home buyer incentives, and a lack of available stock are pushing more buyers into the apartment market.
“Units are now seeing stronger monthly gains than houses, reflecting both affordability constraints and renewed first-home-buyer activity,” she said.
The biggest monthly jumps were in Perth (+1.6 per cent), Adelaide (+1.5 per cent), and Brisbane (+1.4 per cent). Melbourne’s unit market also firmed, up 1.6 per cent, as buyers returned to lower price brackets.
Spring Demand Defies Higher Listings
Despite an influx of spring listings, new stock has failed to match the intensity of buyer demand. Nationally, house prices have now risen every month since February, and unit prices every month since March.
“The pace of growth shows demand hasn’t been dampened by higher supply,” Conisbee said.
Outlook: Steady Growth Into 2026
The data comes as the Reserve Bank prepares for its Melbourne Cup Day meeting, where rates are expected to remain on hold at 3.6 per cent.
With inflation easing only gradually and unemployment sitting around 4.5 per cent, analysts expect monetary policy to stay steady for now.
Ray White’s forecast suggests 2025 will close with high single- to low double-digit annual growth nationally, with smaller capitals and regional areas tipped to outperform well into 2026.
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Australia’s capital city housing markets have continued to record price growth, although higher interest rates and economic uncertainty are beginning to temper momentum.
3 min
Capital city home prices have continued to rise in April despite higher interest rates and ongoing uncertainty about the outlook for inflation and the global economy.
Growth rates, however, have eased, reflecting the usual subduing effect of the lengthy April holiday month.
The national capital city median house price increased marginally by 0.2% over the April quarter to $1,297,798 compared to the March quarter, according to the latest data from My Housing Market.
Annual national house prices are, however, 10.2% higher and have now increased for 14 consecutive months.
Most capitals reported house price increases over the month, with Brisbane and Perth the top performers, each higher by 1.3%, followed by Hobart and Darwin, both up 1.2%, Adelaide up 0.2%, with Sydney steady. Melbourne prices, however, fell 0.7%, while Canberra prices fell 1.7%.
Most also report strong annual house price growth in excess of 10%, with Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, and Adelaide clearly the highest, up by 25.7%, 21.6%, 20.0% and 14.2% respectively.
National unit prices were also higher in the April quarter than in the March quarter, rising by 0.5% to $728,459, and have now increased by 8.2% compared to the April quarter 2025 result.
Brisbane was the top monthly performer in April, with unit prices rising by 1.7%, followed by Perth up 1.0%, Melbourne and Canberra each up 0.9%, Adelaide up 0.6%, and Hobart up 0.1%. Sydney unit prices were steady over the month; however, Darwin unit prices were down 0.8%.
Similar to houses, Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin continue to record the highest annual unit price growth to April 2026, at 30.1%, 27.8%, 12.9% and 11.8%, respectively.
Analysis
Capital city housing markets have generally reported higher home prices in April, although growth rates have eased compared to March.
Easing housing markets reflect the usual dampening effects of the lengthy April holiday month, although higher interest rates and increased uncertainty about the economic outlook have weighed on affordability and confidence.
Robust annual home price growth, however, continues for most capitals with Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, and Adelaide still reporting boomtime results.
Although 2026 is still set to see home price growth generally in most capitals, the rising spectre of further interest rate increases and elevated uncertainty over the outlook for inflation and the economy will continue to dampen affordability and confidence.
Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin, however, are again set to lead capital city outcomes for both houses and units, but are unlikely to match the extraordinary 2025 results.
Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide continue to record higher median house prices than Melbourne, with Perth now closing in fast on Brisbane and set to lead all but Sydney.
Underlying drivers will continue to support overall housing market activity, although the outlook for RBA interest rates is more problematic, with inflation set to accelerate and economic activity to decline as a consequence of the recent sharp increase in oil prices.
The economy, however, remains strong, with a steady, still-low jobless rate, falling unemployment, continued robust job growth, and a high participation rate.
Housing demand continues to outpace a low and diminishing housing supply, and although high post-COVID migration levels have recently eased, numbers remain strong and will add to chronic housing undersupply, supporting high rents and low vacancy rates generally in capital city rental markets.
Following a period of easing in rental growth, the latest data continue to show extraordinarily low home rental vacancy rates and clear signs that rents are on the rise again.
High rents and higher prices continue to provide clear incentives for first-home buyers and investors chasing solid investment returns.
Ongoing government initiatives to support first-home buyers will increase demand and place further upward pressure on prices.
Capital city housing markets generally recorded higher house and unit prices over 2023, 2024 and surged over 2025, fuelled by rising buyer and seller confidence through sharp cuts to interest rates.
Although 2026 is again likely to see higher home prices, significant uncertainty has recently emerged about the near-term outlook for already-high interest rates and economic activity, which will generally dampen buyer and seller confidence.
Early signs are emerging in the recent weakening of home auction market clearance rates, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.
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