The Global Fight Against Inflation Has Turned a Corner

Inflation is falling faster than expected across advanced economies, marking a turning point in central banks’ two-year battle against surging prices.

Declines in consumer price growth, to below 5% in the U.K. last month and around 3% in the U.S. and eurozone, are fueling expectations that central banks could take their feet off the brakes and pivot to cutting interest rates next year.

That would provide welcome relief to a global economy that is struggling outside the U.S., increasing the prospects of a soft landing from a historic series of interest-rate increases without large increases in unemployment. Europe, in particular, is on the brink of recession.

Yields on government debt in Europe and the U.S. have slumped as investors start to price in earlier interest-rate cuts.

For months this year, economists puzzled over why growth and inflation hadn’t slowed more in response to interest-rate hikes. Now, there is growing evidence that higher borrowing costs are biting hard with a delay.

“It’s definitely a turning point for inflation,” said Stefan Gerlach, a former deputy governor of Ireland’s central bank. “Investors may be surprised at how rapidly central banks cut interest rates next year, maybe by one-and-a-half percentage point.”

The sharp declines in inflation across continents underscore how common factors drove up prices in the first place, especially the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. These crimped global supply chains, reduced the number of people in the workforce and fueled energy price increases, especially in Europe. As those forces subside, price pressures naturally ease.

Inflation was also given a boost by demand-side factors, such as trillions of dollars of government stimulus spending in the U.S., as well as pent-up demand and savings from consumers that accumulated during the pandemic. That, economists say, is why underlying inflation remains strong nearly four years after the start of the pandemic, and why rate increases were needed to bring it down.

Lower inflation “shows the effect of increasing rates by 4 or 5 percentage points,” Gerlach said. “Team Transitory were wrong,” he added, referring to a debate among economists over whether high inflation would subside by itself, a camp to which he belonged. “Our idea was that inflation would fall back without an increase in interest rates.”

Even countries where inflation has proved the most stubborn, such as the U.K., have started to show progress. Consumer prices rose 4.6% in October compared with the year-ago month, a drop from the 6.7% rate of inflation recorded in September and the slowest increase since October 2021, the statistics agency said Wednesday. Economists had expected to see a decline to 4.8%.

“The U.K. no longer looks like such a major outlier when it comes to inflation,” said Bruna Skarica, an economist at Morgan Stanley.

News of the U.K. decline followed Tuesday’s report of a larger than expected drop in U.S. inflation to 3.2% in October. The eurozone also reported a decline in inflation to 2.9% in October from 4.3% in September. Consumer prices were lower than a year earlier in Belgium and the Netherlands.

The cooling of consumer prices has persuaded some European policy makers that the battle to tame inflation has been won, and in a shorter period of time than in the 1970s, when a comparable surge in prices occurred.

“We’re in the process of exiting the inflationary crisis,” said France’s Bruno Le Maire before meeting with his fellow European Union finance ministers last week. “In a little under two years, Europe will have managed to control inflation, which weighs on our citizens, which weighs on households, especially the less wealthy.”

Investors are also more optimistic. They are pricing in interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank starting next spring, and by the Bank of England next summer, according to data from Refinitiv.

Markets had priced a 30% probability of another rate increase by the Fed, from its current level of 5.25% to 5.5%, until publication of U.S. inflation data on Tuesday. That probability has now fallen to 5%, according to Deutsche Bank analysts. The prospect of a Fed rate cut by May soared from 23% on Monday to 86% by Tuesday‘s close.

Central bankers are more cautious after being surprised last year by the persistence of inflation. The Bank of England last month said it is too soon to think about cutting interest rates, having forecast that inflation would reach its 2% target in late 2025. Central bankers also point to the still-rapid rise in wages and the risk of higher energy prices if the conflict between Israel and Hamas spreads to other parts of the Middle East.

Morgan Stanley’s economists expect to see the Bank of England start to cut rates beginning next May, followed by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in June. Regardless of the exact timing, there is a growing consensus that inflation is on the wane and lower interest rates will follow.

“We expect widespread declines in inflation and interest rates in 2024 across advanced economies,” Michael Saunders, a former BOE rate setter, wrote in a note to clients of Oxford Economics.

If so, it would raise the question of whether central banks overdid it with rate increases, especially in Europe.

Economists say those hikes are working their way through the economy, weighing on lending and spending. Job creation is slowing and unemployment is edging higher on both sides of the Atlantic, curbing wage growth. Households are becoming more reluctant to spend, as higher interest rates make it more advantageous to save, economists say. That weighs on growth prospects over the coming months.

U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in October from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That is the first decline since March and comes after a 0.9% increase in September. In the eurozone, industrial output declined by 1.1% in September from the previous month, official data showed on Wednesday.

The decline in inflation will be welcome news for political leaders, even if it has yet to boost their popularity.

While global factors contributed to the worst of the inflation surge and most of the recent decline, domestic economic conditions are likely to matter most as central banks enter the final stage—the so-called “last mile”—of getting inflation down to their targets of around 2%.

In the U.S., inflation is ebbing, as the labor market and consumer spending cool but remain solid. This has bolstered forecasts that price pressures will keep easing without a recession.

In Europe, the economic backdrop is more challenging. The continent faces headwinds to growth, from slowing global trade and sluggish growth in China, a critical export market, to efforts by governments to slow spending. Germany’s constitutional court on Wednesday ruled against a move by Chancellor Olaf Scholz‘s government to repurpose €60 billion in unused pandemic funds to finance green energy initiatives, creating a large hole in the state budget.

European households have also been more reluctant than their U.S. counterparts to spend pandemic-era savings. All that could lead to a deeper downturn and sharper drop in inflation in Europe, prompting earlier rate cuts by the ECB.

Despite the likelihood of lower interest rates ahead, a return to the period of ultra low interest rates that preceded the pandemic is deemed unlikely by many economists and investors, reflecting rising geopolitical tensions and demographic pressures.

Workforces are likely to shrink across major economies, including China, over the coming years as millions of baby boomers retire, driving up wages. And friction between China and the West will likely raise manufacturing costs as companies shift factories to other countries.

Reporting season has once again reminded investors that a strong profit does not guarantee a rising share price, and a large loss does not always trigger a sell-off. What matters most is how each result compares with expectations and, increasingly, what management says about the year ahead. During the August 2026 season, companies offering credible turnarounds or unexpectedly strong guidance were rewarded handsomely, while those flagging weaker margins, slowing demand or greater uncertainty were punished.

The following ranking draws on Morningstar’s review of 164 ASX-listed companies and measures each company’s share-price movement on the day it reported. This captures the market’s immediate response to the earnings announcement, before subsequent economic developments, dividends and company-specific news cloud the picture. Here are the five biggest winners, and the five hardest-hit losers, of the season so far.

The five winners

1. Bapcor (ASX:BAP): +41.0%

Bapcor delivered reporting season’s largest relief rally after presenting early evidence that its troubled automotive-parts business was stabilising. Although underlying revenue fell 1.8% to $1.92 billion and underlying NPAT collapsed 85% to $10.8 million, underlying EBITDA of $152.5 million exceeded guidance.

More importantly, working-capital initiatives released $68.5 million in the second half, lifting cash conversion to 109.4% and reducing net debt by 63% to $135 million. The statutory loss was $431.6 million, largely because of non-cash impairments. Investors focused on improving operational momentum, stronger liquidity and management’s expectation of modest FY27 revenue growth.

2. Zip Co (ASX:ZIP): +18.2%

Zip comfortably surpassed its FY26 targets, sending the buy-now-pay-later provider’s shares sharply higher. Transaction volume rose 23% to $16.7 billion, while cash earnings before tax, depreciation and amortisation jumped 58% to a record $268.9 million. Statutory profit climbed 46% to $116.4 million, and the cash operating margin expanded by 4.2 percentage points to 20%.

The strongest signal was guidance for FY27 cash earnings of $340 million—around 26% growth and above analysts’ forecasts. US transaction volume increased 42.5% and now represents three-quarters of group volume, offsetting weaker customer activity in Australia.

3. CSL (ASX:CSL): +17.3%

CSL’s result was hardly spectacular in isolation, but it cleared a market bar that had fallen dramatically following earlier downgrades and restructuring announcements. Underlying NPATA was US$3.1 billion, down 2% in constant-currency terms, while operating cash flow reached US$3.51 billion.

CSL maintained its full-year dividend at US$2.92 per share and completed a A$1 billion buyback. The real catalyst was FY27 guidance for approximately 5% underlying profit growth, compared with market expectations closer to 2%. After an extended period of earnings disappointments, investors interpreted the outlook as evidence that CSL’s core plasma business was approaching a sustainable recovery.

4. Judo Capital (ASX:JDO): +16.9%

Judo Capital demonstrated strong operating leverage as its specialist business-lending franchise expanded. Full-year profit before tax rose 34% to $168.1 million, while pre-provision profit increased 42%. Gross loans and advances grew 18% to $14.7 billion, reaching the top of the bank’s guidance range and comfortably exceeding broader system growth.

Deposits increased 24% to $12.2 billion, return on equity improved by 1.1 percentage points to 6.4%, and earnings per share rose 29% to 9.9 cents. Reaffirmation of the FY27 outlook gave investors confidence that loan growth could continue without sacrificing margins or credit quality.

5. Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL): +15.8%

The owner of Supercheap Auto, rebel, BCF and Macpac reported record sales of $4.2 billion, up 3.2%, despite cautious discretionary spending. Profitability went backwards: normalised profit before tax fell 7% to $306 million and normalised NPAT declined 2.8% to $226 million as transformation spending weighed on margins. Nevertheless, the result exceeded subdued expectations, online sales grew 5.3% and membership across the group’s loyalty programs reached 13.1 million. Investors were also encouraged by positive early FY27 trading, stable gross margins and continued market-share gains. A fully franked 33-cent final dividend added to the appeal.

The five losers

1. Hansen Technologies (ASX:HSN): –21.2%

Hansen’s historic result met expectations, but investors recoiled from its outlook. The utility and communications software provider achieved an underlying EBITDA margin of 31%, exceeding its 30% target, while generating strong cash flow. However, management designated FY27 an “investment and transition year”, signalling a roughly five-percentage-point margin contraction as spending on products, sales capabilities and organisational changes increased.

Revenue had already been broadly flat, leaving investors concerned that the investment program would depress earnings before new growth appeared. Leadership changes, including the chief executive’s departure, added uncertainty. Management expects revenue growth and margins above 30% to return in FY28, but the market was unwilling to wait.

2. Life360 (ASX:360): –19.4%

Life360’s headline growth was impressive: quarterly revenue rose 38% to US$159 million, subscription revenue increased 31%, and adjusted EBITDA climbed 53% to US$31.1 million. Monthly active users reached 102.4 million and paying circles grew 27% to 3.2 million. The sell-off reflected expectations rather than a collapsing business.

Net income fell 18%, the net margin contracted from 6% to 3%, hardware shipments dropped 18%, and full-year EBITDA guidance was merely maintained. After a strong valuation run, investors wanted a larger upgrade and clearer evidence that heavy investment in advertising, international expansion and artificial intelligence would generate additional earnings.

3. PEXA Group (ASX:PXA): –17.0%

PEXA reported a 7% increase in continuing-operations revenue and 12% EBITDA growth to $152 million, accompanied by a two-percentage-point margin expansion. Free cash flow increased 39%, suggesting the core Australian electronic-conveyancing platform remained highly profitable. Investors instead concentrated on management’s warning that property-transfer volumes could decline, alongside regulatory uncertainty surrounding the fees PEXA can charge.

The company is also continuing to invest heavily in its loss-making international expansion. Morningstar considered the market reaction excessive, arguing that structural transfer-volume assumptions had not materially changed, but the combination of softer near-term activity and regulatory risk overwhelmed the respectable headline numbers.

4. SEEK (ASX:SEK): –14.3%

SEEK produced solid FY26 figures, including 10% revenue growth to $1.20 billion, a 15% rise in EBITDA and 28% growth in adjusted earnings per share. It also lifted its fully franked annual dividend by 13% to a record 52 cents. Those achievements were overshadowed by falling paid job-ad volumes and cautious FY27 assumptions.

The statutory accounts included a $201 million loss from the SEEK Growth Fund and $377 million of significant items, making the headline result considerably less attractive. Investors were particularly concerned that economic weakness could limit volumes while the company continued investing in platform integration and artificial-intelligence products.

5. JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH): –12.3%

JB Hi-Fi’s full-year result was broadly respectable, with group sales rising 5% to $11.1 billion and underlying earnings per share increasing 6% to $4.48. The damage came from its current-trading update. Australian sales were almost flat during the June quarter and deteriorated further in July, while earnings in the core Australian electronics business fell 3.6%.

Housing-related categories were particularly weak as higher living costs and interest rates constrained household budgets. With JB Hi-Fi entering the season on a demanding valuation, an in-line historic result was not sufficient: the loss of sales momentum prompted investors to rapidly reduce their expectations for FY27.

Overall, the season showed that share prices react less to whether profits rose or fell than to the gap between results and expectations. Bapcor was rewarded for being less troubled than feared, while several fundamentally profitable companies were punished because their outlooks failed to justify elevated valuations.