Slowly but surely, inflation moves in the right direction
It’s proven stubbornly sticky to shift but latest figures show inflation is on its way down
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It’s a happy new year for mortgage holders following the release of data on the Consumer Price Index today. The CPI rose to 4.3 percent in the 12 months to November last year, down from 4.9 percent in October, taking pressure off the RBA for another rate rise.
“This month’s annual increase of 4.3 per cent is down from the 4.9 per cent rise in October and is the smallest annual increase since January 2022,” said Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics.
The results make a further rise in the cash rate unlikely when the RBA Board meets in February, the first meeting of the year. December inflation is expected to follow a similar pathway, further reducing the chances of another interest rate hike.
Once again, housing, insurance and food and beverages placed the strongest pressure on prices, although there are signs that services inflation, which has remained stubbornly high, is finally starting to dip, down from 5 percent in October to 4.7 percent.
It’s welcome news for mortgage holders who shouldered significant rate rises over the past 18 months as the official interest rate rose to 4.35 percent. Some experts are so optimistic about the news that they have predicted the possibility of cuts as early as May. However, the country’s largest mortgage lender, the Commonwealth Bank, anticipates September 2024 as the most likely time for the first fall in rates.
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Australian shares fell on Thursday as Wall Street weakness, rising oil and persistent rate concerns weighed on most of the market. The S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.72 per cent to 8,702. The All Ordinaries lost 0.66 per cent to finish at 8,897. Mining stocks were hit particularly hard, while real estate also dragged on the index. …
Continue reading “ASX falls 0.7 per cent as miners and property stocks retreat”
2 minAustralian shares fell on Thursday as Wall Street weakness, rising oil and persistent rate concerns weighed on most of the market.
The S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.72 per cent to 8,702. The All Ordinaries lost 0.66 per cent to finish at 8,897. Mining stocks were hit particularly hard, while real estate also dragged on the index.
Energy was the notable exception, gaining more than one per cent as Brent crude traded above US$103 a barrel. Oil had moved higher amid uncertainty surrounding potential US diesel-export restrictions and broader geopolitical supply risks. The move supported energy producers but renewed concern about inflation inputs across transport and the wider economy.
Gold shares were weak even as spot bullion remained historically elevated. The All Ordinaries Gold index fell about 2.25 per cent, showing that equity performance can diverge from the commodity because of valuation, currency, operating and company-specific factors.
Zip was a prominent loser, falling 11.38 per cent after the company reported short sales after the previous close. Nine Entertainment also weakened after UBS analysts warned of near-term revenue challenges associated with its advertising-supported subscription tier.
Premier Investments led larger winners despite caution about the retail environment. Breville, in which Premier owns a significant stake, also appeared among leading movers. In the broader ASX 300 screen, Myer gained 11.43 per cent and MAAS Group rose 7.93 per cent, while Lotus Resources fell 10.53 per cent. These percentage moves should be checked against company announcements and trading liquidity before attributing causes.
The Australian dollar was broadly flat at US70.38 cents. Spot gold was around US$4,280 an ounce, Brent crude approximately US$103.08 a barrel and iron ore near US$96.90 a tonne late in the session.
The rate outlook remains the central domestic catalyst. Labour-market weakness has not eliminated the possibility of an RBA increase next week, leaving banks, listed property and other rate-sensitive sectors exposed to changing expectations.
Market dashboard
S&P/ASX 200: 8,702, down 0.72 per cent.
All Ordinaries: 8,897, down 0.66 per cent.
Best sector: Energy, up more than one per cent.
Weakest areas: Real estate and materials were the major drags; confirm final sector percentages before publication.
Material winner: Premier Investments led the large-company gainers. Confirm its final closing move from the ASX before publication.
Material loser: Zip, down 11.38 per cent.
ASX 300 percentage leader: Myer, up 11.43 per cent.
ASX 300 percentage laggard: Zip, down 11.38 per cent.
AUD/USD: Approximately US$0.7038, broadly flat.
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