RENTS, LAND VALUES AND DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUS AS INDUSTRIAL MARKET STABILISES
Australia’s industrial property market is moving from a post-COVID boom to a steadier phase, with vacancy rates normalising and rental growth diverging across regions.
3 min
Australia’s industrial property market is shifting gears after five years of record-breaking growth in demand, rents and construction.
Vacancy levels have climbed from historic lows, bringing the sector back into more balanced territory, according to Knight Frank’s latest research, From Surge to Stabilisation.
Vacancy rates normalise
Blended vacancy across the East Coast now sits at 3.2 per cent. While still considered tight, that represents a significant change from the 0.6 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2023. The post-COVID surge in tenant demand had driven unprecedented leasing take-up and fuelled a wave of new construction, but that momentum has since cooled.
The report suggests that effective rental growth will remain subdued in the short term, although the picture is far from uniform. Vacancy is expected to concentrate in emerging precincts with a large pipeline of new projects, while more established markets are likely to prove resilient.
Diverging rental outlook
Sydney’s South West and Outer South, Melbourne’s North and Brisbane’s South and South West are flagged as more exposed, with lower prospects for rental growth. By contrast, Sydney’s Inner South, Melbourne’s South East and East, and Brisbane’s Trade Coast are expected to deliver stronger outcomes thanks to lower construction and tighter vacancy.
Knight Frank Partner, Research and Consulting, Queensland, Jennelle Wilson, said tenants in some markets will still face higher costs even as more space becomes available.
“It is expected that face rents will be defended with a corresponding increase in incentives to impact effective rents,” she said. “Tenants on leases negotiated prior to 2021 will still face significant rental reversion on renegotiation or relocation, despite having greater choice in the market, to bring them into line with current market rents resulting from significant growth over the boom.”
According to Wilson, prime industrial rents rose by between 30 and 60 per cent on the East Coast over the past three years, underscoring just how intense the recent surge was.
Supply pipeline rebalances
The report found that the supply side will correct relatively quickly, with speculative development slowing and more reliance on pre-commitments. Lower levels of speculative projects and a greater focus on pre-leased space are expected to ease new supply through the second half of 2025 and into 2026.
Wilson said occupiers will continue to look for operational efficiency and upgrades. “Over time, there will be a lift in pre-commitment activity as upgrading and unlocking operational efficiency remains key for large occupiers,” she said. “A more conservative development environment will limit speculative supply in 2026, diverting demand back to pre-commitments to tenants seeking a technology and building fabric upgrade.”
She added that the market would increasingly split between businesses willing to pay for high-efficiency, tech-enabled facilities and those seeking to minimise rental costs, even if it means compromising on optimisation.
Land values remain firm
One of the strongest findings from the research is that serviced industrial land values are expected to hold firm, even as demand eases. Over the past five years, land values across the East Coast have climbed sharply — by 46 to 118 per cent for smaller blocks and 46 to 131 per cent for lots of one to five hectares.
While prices have plateaued recently in Sydney and Melbourne, Wilson said the most significant bottleneck has been the time taken to service land.
“In contrast to building construction timeframes, recent years have proven that the timeline for industrial land servicing and development is the most critical step in the development process,” she said. Lessons from markets such as Western Sydney, and to a lesser extent Brisbane and Melbourne, around the delivery of power and water are expected to continue supporting values.
Looking ahead
The industrial market is settling into a new rhythm. Rental growth will be patchy, depending on location and level of development.
Pre-commitments are expected to dominate new supply, while speculative activity is expected to recede. And despite a cooling in overall tenant demand, the value of well-serviced land is likely to remain robust.
For investors, developers and occupiers alike, the message is clear: the frenzy of the boom years is over, but fundamentals remain strong for quality assets in the right locations.
As interest rates, inflation and market sentiment fluctuate, investors are being urged to focus on data, not panic.
Sydney Children’s Hospitals Foundation CEO Kristina Keneally says Australia’s culture of large-scale philanthropy is becoming more sophisticated as Gold Dinner raises $75.5 million for children’s health, research and innovation.
Château d’Ansembourg and the adjacent Domaine du Presbytère d’Ansembourg are on the market for €37.5 Million
< 1 min
The listing comprises the ancient Château d’Ansembourg and the adjacent Domaine du Presbytère d’Ansembourg, which are within central Luxembourg’s Valley of the Seven Castles.
Château d’Ansembourg is one of the seven castles the valley is named for and is regarded as one of the country’s most important privately owned châteaus, according to Ignace Meuwissen, the founder of Whisper Auctions, who is handling the sale.
The castle sits at the heart of an almost 500-acre estate overlooking the picturesque village of Ansembourg, and records of its existence date to 1135.
Domaine du Presbytère d’Ansembourg, meanwhile, is a more than 110-acre estate comprising a former presbytery, a chapel dating to 1678, a historic school site, forests and meadows.
“Properties of this calibre rarely become available,” Meuwissen said.
“What is being offered today is far more than a chateau. The combination of nearly nine centuries of documented history, 245 hectares of land and a unique location in the Valley of the Seven Castles creates an opportunity that is exceptionally rare within Europe. Opportunities of this scale and heritage value are seldom brought to market and are often preserved within families for generations.”
The properties are being marketed through a “semi-off-market sales process,” with limited information and marketing materials publicly available, and access to the properties is reserved for a small number of pre-qualified candidates, according to Meuwissen.
Both estates have been privately occupied by the same owner, whom Meuwissen declined to identify. Mansion Global could not confirm who the seller is.
The pandemic-fuelled love affair with casual footwear is fading, with Bank of America warning the downturn shows no sign of easing.
From the Caribbean to Australia’s east coast, Oyster’s latest world rally promises a bluewater voyage designed for owners seeking ultimate sailing experiences.
