RENTS, LAND VALUES AND DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUS AS INDUSTRIAL MARKET STABILISES

Australia’s industrial property market is shifting gears after five years of record-breaking growth in demand, rents and construction.

Vacancy levels have climbed from historic lows, bringing the sector back into more balanced territory, according to Knight Frank’s latest research, From Surge to Stabilisation.

Vacancy rates normalise

Blended vacancy across the East Coast now sits at 3.2 per cent. While still considered tight, that represents a significant change from the 0.6 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2023. The post-COVID surge in tenant demand had driven unprecedented leasing take-up and fuelled a wave of new construction, but that momentum has since cooled.

The report suggests that effective rental growth will remain subdued in the short term, although the picture is far from uniform. Vacancy is expected to concentrate in emerging precincts with a large pipeline of new projects, while more established markets are likely to prove resilient.

Diverging rental outlook

Sydney’s South West and Outer South, Melbourne’s North and Brisbane’s South and South West are flagged as more exposed, with lower prospects for rental growth. By contrast, Sydney’s Inner South, Melbourne’s South East and East, and Brisbane’s Trade Coast are expected to deliver stronger outcomes thanks to lower construction and tighter vacancy.

Knight Frank Partner, Research and Consulting, Queensland, Jennelle Wilson, said tenants in some markets will still face higher costs even as more space becomes available.

“It is expected that face rents will be defended with a corresponding increase in incentives to impact effective rents,” she said. “Tenants on leases negotiated prior to 2021 will still face significant rental reversion on renegotiation or relocation, despite having greater choice in the market, to bring them into line with current market rents resulting from significant growth over the boom.”

According to Wilson, prime industrial rents rose by between 30 and 60 per cent on the East Coast over the past three years, underscoring just how intense the recent surge was.

Supply pipeline rebalances

The report found that the supply side will correct relatively quickly, with speculative development slowing and more reliance on pre-commitments. Lower levels of speculative projects and a greater focus on pre-leased space are expected to ease new supply through the second half of 2025 and into 2026.

Wilson said occupiers will continue to look for operational efficiency and upgrades. “Over time, there will be a lift in pre-commitment activity as upgrading and unlocking operational efficiency remains key for large occupiers,” she said. “A more conservative development environment will limit speculative supply in 2026, diverting demand back to pre-commitments to tenants seeking a technology and building fabric upgrade.”

She added that the market would increasingly split between businesses willing to pay for high-efficiency, tech-enabled facilities and those seeking to minimise rental costs, even if it means compromising on optimisation.

Land values remain firm

One of the strongest findings from the research is that serviced industrial land values are expected to hold firm, even as demand eases. Over the past five years, land values across the East Coast have climbed sharply — by 46 to 118 per cent for smaller blocks and 46 to 131 per cent for lots of one to five hectares.

While prices have plateaued recently in Sydney and Melbourne, Wilson said the most significant bottleneck has been the time taken to service land.

“In contrast to building construction timeframes, recent years have proven that the timeline for industrial land servicing and development is the most critical step in the development process,” she said. Lessons from markets such as Western Sydney, and to a lesser extent Brisbane and Melbourne, around the delivery of power and water are expected to continue supporting values.

Looking ahead

The industrial market is settling into a new rhythm. Rental growth will be patchy, depending on location and level of development.

Pre-commitments are expected to dominate new supply, while speculative activity is expected to recede. And despite a cooling in overall tenant demand, the value of well-serviced land is likely to remain robust.

For investors, developers and occupiers alike, the message is clear: the frenzy of the boom years is over, but fundamentals remain strong for quality assets in the right locations.

The Sydney developer-builder, which typically retains its projects, is offering 54 residences off the plan on Spencer Street, with prices starting at $3.9 million.

HSN Property Group has launched Maison Jolene in Rose Bay, giving buyers a rare opportunity to purchase off the plan from a developer-builder that has spent more than two decades building a predominantly build-to-hold portfolio in Sydney’s eastern suburbs. HSN values that portfolio at $4 billion.

Located at 2–16 Spencer Street, Maison Jolene comprises 54 residences, including house-sized two- and three-bedroom apartments, sub-penthouses and penthouses. Prices start at $3.9 million, according to HSN, with many residences designed to capture views across Rose Bay, Sydney Harbour and the city skyline.

James Nixon, head of projects at The Rubinstein Group, is handling the sales campaign alongside agency founder Gavin Rubinstein. He says the launch is an unusual opportunity for buyers who have followed the developer’s work.

“HSN is renowned for building entire projects and rarely selling a single apartment to the open market, so Maison Jolene really is a first for potential buyers who have been following the brand across previous projects,” Nixon says.

HSN worked with architecture practice MHN Design Union and interiors studio The Unlisted Collective on the development. A rhythm of arches and deep-set openings gives the building its presence on Spencer Street, while the residences are positioned to make the most of natural light, privacy and outlook. Landscaping frames the arrival and carries through to the shared outdoor spaces.

“Maison Jolene was conceived to bring a touch of European elegance to Rose Bay, drawing on the understated charm of Mayfair and the romance of Paris while remaining grounded in the relaxed character of Sydney’s eastern suburbs,” says Rafi Assouline, founder and director of HSN Property Group.

The apartments were designed with established Rose Bay downsizers in mind. Large kitchens, generous storage and flexible living areas are intended to ease the move from a family home, with layouts that can also accommodate families and professionals looking for more space in an apartment.

The shared amenities are designed as an extension of those homes. Residents will have access to a lounge, private dining room and landscaped alfresco entertaining area. A wellness retreat brings together a magnesium pool, cold plunge, sauna, steam room and heated stone recovery bench, alongside a gym and dedicated space for Pilates and yoga.

Inside the apartments, the curves of the façade recur in the cabinetry and balustrades. Custom wall sconces, tapware and patterned parquetry sit alongside carved marble basins, hammered-glass shower screens and recessed stone niches. Timber veneer wardrobes have leather-clad drawers, while an Art Deco-inspired motif appears in the raised ceiling detail, joinery and built-in velvet bedheads.

“Maison Jolene is at once contemporary and old world, with custom-designed parquetry flooring and an art deco-inspired motif juxtaposing with the curvature of the arched facade, balustrade and internal cabinetry,” Assouline says.

The kitchens bring several of those ideas together in a sculptural, bubble-shaped island. Assouline helped design and engineer the curved form and personally selected the marble, which is bookmatched so the veining mirrors across adjoining pieces.

“With each of our projects, I look for symmetry in design,” he says. “Crafting the apartments is like solving a puzzle of one thousand pieces; one little detail wrong could mean the picture doesn’t translate correctly once it’s finished.”

HSN will develop and build Maison Jolene, overseeing the project from design through to construction. The family-owned company says it has delivered more than 270 homes, has 200 apartments under construction and has a 100 per cent completion record.

“As a private, integrated developer-builder, we maintain close control over every stage of a project,” Assouline says. “We see our projects as collaborative partnerships with our architects, interior designers and specialist trades with whom we have refined a very unique aesthetic, to ensure every detail is considered for those who will live there.”

For Nixon, the developer’s involvement in both design and construction is part of the pitch to buyers. “The attention to design excellence, combined with HSN’s proven track record in delivering ultra-high-end developments, ensures a level of rarity and enduring quality seldom seen in today’s market,” he says.

“To purchase an HSN property is to acquire a property that will not just hold its value but stand the test of time as a timeless piece of Sydney real estate.”

The Spencer Street address puts residents close to Rose Bay’s village cafés and restaurants, foreshore walks and ferry service, with beaches, golf courses and schools nearby. Maison Jolene is now selling off the plan through James Nixon and Gavin Rubinstein.