Britain Is Getting Back on Track

War in Europe, crisis in the Middle East, growing tensions across East Asia, and a widening chasm between a beleaguered West and the Global South: Writing a Global View column in times like these is not always the happiest of tasks. But at least one good-news story has been building quietly over the last few months. Global Britain is becoming a reality and the world is better off because of it.

The world has changed since the British voted to leave the European Union in 2016. After Brexit, enthusiastic backers expected an aggressively deregulating Britain would become a kind of Singapore-on-Thames. Russian oligarchs, Chinese moguls and Arab oil sheikhs would flock to London, eager to enjoy a sophisticated financial market that was less regulated and more hospitable than either the EU or the U.S. Free-trade agreements with the U.S. above all, but also fast-growing Asian nations, would more than compensate for the loss of the U.K.’s privileged position in the EU.

That’s not how things worked out, and the world is a much tougher place for middle powers than anyone expected when Brexit passed. Even as Covid disrupted the world economy and shut Britain’s lucrative tourism sector down, the open international economy of 2016 began to wither. Russia’s war in Ukraine and deepening U.S.-China tensions ended the dream that London could prosper as a neutral financial centre. Rising protectionism world-wide made trade agreements harder to reach and highlighted the importance of belonging to big trading blocs like the EU.

On top of this, a spat with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol, aimed at keeping the border with the Irish Republic open after Brexit, proved a much larger problem for Britain than Boris Johnson’s government anticipated. The details are fiendishly complicated, but in his rush to “get Brexit done,” Mr. Johnson signed an agreement with the EU that Unionist Protestants in Northern Ireland saw as weakening ties with Britain. The resulting tensions threatened the stability of the troubled region, and by the end of his premiership Mr. Johnson was threatening to break his own agreement with the EU. That stance infuriated Brussels and alienated an Irish-American named Joe Biden, killing any talk of a free-trade agreement between Britain and the U.S.

That’s not where things stand today. Building on foundations laid down in the Johnson era, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has repaired relations with European partners and Washington even as Britain has carved out a significant place in Asia. Britain at long last may be finding a role.

Britain’s recent foreign-policy successes stand on two pillars. The first is Aukus, the agreement to work cooperatively with the U.S. to help Australia build a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. The trust among these three countries enables a level of technological and economic cooperation that potentially extends far beyond the submarine program. With Britain moving toward membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (based on the Trans-Pacific Partnership that the U.S. helped negotiate but then refused to join), the U.K. has achieved a stronger presence than any European state in the fast-growing Indo-Pacific region.

Meanwhile, Britain’s unswerving support for Ukraine has put London back at the centre of European politics. Britain’s stance earned deep gratitude from Poland, the Baltic states, Sweden and Finland. That, along with Mr. Sunak’s more constructive approach toward Brussels, strengthened pro-British feelings inside the EU and helped pave the way for the major concessions on the Northern Ireland Protocol that enabled Mr. Sunak to forge the groundbreaking Windsor Framework. If the deal, announced last month, holds up, it would remove a major stumbling block in U.S.-U.K. relations.

The payoff could be substantial. Last week Sen. Chris Coons (D., Del.), a close Biden ally, introduced a bipartisan bill with John Thune (R., S.D.) authorising fast-track talks on a U.S.-U.K. free-trade agreement. The White House plans a Biden visit next month to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, which ended the violence in Northern Ireland. British negotiators hope for Britain’s eventual inclusion in tech talks between Washington and Brussels.

With an unpopular Tory government facing a revived, de-Corbynized Labour Party, and with inflation wreaking havoc on British living standards and touching off waves of strikes among public employees, foreign-policy success may not be enough to save the ruling Conservatives from the wrath of the voters. But it is likely to help, and if the Sunak government can continue to carve out a serious role for post-Brexit Britain in world politics, the next election could be a much closer affair than most forecasters currently predict.

Regardless, Americans should welcome Britain’s return to the high table of world politics. A stronger Britain means a healthier West, and given the otherwise grim state of world affairs, Washington can use all the help it can get.

Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu delivered a warning to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during a recent visit to Washington: Already-high airfares will surge if the war in Iran doesn’t end soon.

Sununu, a Republican who represents some of the biggest airlines as president of the industry group Airlines for America, has for weeks sounded the alarm to Trump administration officials about the economic fallout from high jet fuel prices. The war, Sununu has argued, must come to a close soon, or things will get worse.

Administration officials have gotten the message.

Privately, President Trump’s advisers are increasingly worried that Republicans will pay a political price for the rising fuel costs, according to people familiar with the matter. Many of those advisers are eager to end the war, hoping prices will begin to moderate before November’s midterm elections.

The fallout from the U.S.-Israeli attack in late February has slowed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane, triggering a sharp increase in oil, gasoline and jet-fuel prices.

That means consumers are grappling with high costs ahead of the summer travel season, as they consider vacation plans.

Sixty-three per cent of Americans said they put a great deal or a good amount of blame on Trump for the increase in gas prices, according to a new poll conducted by NPR, PBS and Marist.

More than 8 in 10 Americans said struggles at the gas pump are putting strain on their finances.

Jet-fuel prices roughly doubled in a matter of weeks after the war began, and they have remained high. Airlines have said that will add billions of dollars of additional expenses this year, squeezing profit margins.

U.S. airlines spent more than $5 billion on fuel in March—up 30% from a year earlier, according to government data.

Carriers have been raising ticket prices, hoping to pass the cost along to consumers, and they are culling flights that will no longer make money at higher price levels.

In March, the price of a U.S. domestic round-trip economy ticket rose 21% from a year earlier to $570, according to Airlines Reporting Corp., which tracks travel-agency sales.

So far, airlines have said the higher fares haven’t deterred bookings and they are hoping to recoup more of the fuel-cost increases as the year goes on.

Earlier this week, Trump said the current price of oil is “a very small price to pay for getting rid of a nuclear weapon from people that are really mentally deranged.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that if Iran got a nuclear weapon, the country would have more leverage to keep the strait closed and “make our gas prices like $9 a gallon or $8 a gallon.”

Trump has taken steps in recent days to bring the war to an end. Late Tuesday, the president paused a plan to help guide trapped commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, expressing optimism that a deal could be reached with Iran to end the conflict.

Crude oil prices fell below $100 a barrel on Wednesday, after reports that Iran and the U.S. are working with mediators on a one-page framework to restart negotiations aimed at ending the conflict and opening the strait.

Sununu said Trump administration officials are conscious of the economic fallout from the war: “They get it…and I think that’s why they’re trying to get through the war as fast as they can.”

But he cautioned that it could take months for prices to return to prewar levels.

“Ticket prices won’t go down immediately” after the strait is fully reopened, Sununu said. “You’re looking at elevated ticket prices through the summer and fall because it takes a while for the prices to go down.”

Since the initial U.S.-Israeli attack in late February, Sununu has met in Washington with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, representatives from the Transportation Department and senior White House officials.

A White House official confirmed that Hassett and Sununu have discussed the effect of increased fuel prices on the airline industry. The official said the conversation touched on how the industry can mitigate the impact of high jet fuel prices on consumers.

“The president and his entire energy team anticipated these short-term disruptions to the global energy markets from Operation Epic Fury and had a plan prepared to mitigate these disruptions,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said, pointing to the administration’s decision to waive a century-old shipping law in a bid to lower the cost of moving oil.

Rogers said the administration is working with industry representatives to “address their concerns, explore potential actions, and inform the president’s policy decisions.”

A Treasury Department spokesman pointed to Bessent’s recent comments on Fox News that the U.S. economy remains strong despite price increases. The spokesman said Treasury officials have met with airline executives, who have reaffirmed strong ticket bookings.

“We’re cognizant that this short-term move up in prices is affecting the American people, but I am also confident, on the other side of this, prices will come down very quickly,” Bessent told Fox News on Monday.

The war has already contributed to one casualty in the industry: Spirit Airlines. Company representatives have said they were forced to close the airline because the sustained surge in jet-fuel prices derailed the company’s plan to emerge from chapter 11 bankruptcy.

The Trump administration and Spirit failed to come to an agreement for the company to receive a financial lifeline of as much as $500 million from the federal government.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has argued that the Iran war wasn’t the cause of Spirit’s demise, pointing to the company’s past financial struggles, as well as the Biden administration’s decision to challenge a merger with JetBlue.

Other budget airlines have also turned to the federal government for help since the U.S.-Israeli attack. A group of budget airlines last month sought $2.5 billion in financial assistance to offset higher fuel costs, and they separately wrote to lawmakers asking for relief from certain ticket taxes.

Britain Is Getting Back on Track

Successes in Ukraine and the Pacific and Rishi Sunak’s leadership shore up standing lost to Brexit and Covid.

Administration officials have spoken to the airline industry, which has voiced concerns about the rising costs.