ChatGPT Is Causing a Stock-Market Ruckus
Investors race to assess the rise of artificial intelligence as a possible ‘iPhone moment’
3 min
The rise of artificial intelligence is taking the tech world by storm. The technology is also making waves on Wall Street.
It is early days for so-called generative AI, a form of artificial intelligence that can conjure original ideas in the form of text, video or other media. But the tool has caused a stir in companies, schools, governments and the general public for its ability to process massive amounts of information and generate sophisticated content in response to prompts from users.
Big technology companies are investing billions of dollars in the technology. Startups are raising cash and trying to develop business models using AI at a rapid pace.
Investors are gauging the extent to which AI’s arrival will upend companies, industries and contemporary business practices—and placing bets accordingly. That has sent stocks swinging wildly in both directions: Chip maker Nvidia’s shares are surging, while shares of study-materials company Chegg have plummeted.Enthusiasm for the potential of AI is one reason big tech companies are among this year’s strongest performers.
There is little doubt that generative AI chatbots are popular. ChatGPT reached 100 million users in two months, the fastest app on record, analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a research note. In comparison, TikTok took nine months to reach that milestone, while Instagram took 30.
“We view AI as huge, and we’ll continue weaving it in our products on a very thoughtful basis,” Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said last week on a conference call with analysts.
Apple isn’t alone. There have been more than 300 mentions of “generative AI” on company conference calls worldwide so far this year, according to data from AlphaSense. The phrase barely garnered a mention before 2023.
Major health systems are experimenting with AI to see whether the technology can help boost the productivity of their medical staffs. Entrepreneurs and venture-capital investors hope generative AI will revolutionise businesses from media production to customer service to grocery delivery. Even Coca-Cola told investors it is experimenting with the technology.
Some investors wonder whether generative AI is the latest tech with the potential to disrupt entire industries. The dawn of online streaming spelled the end of home-video-rental companies such as Blockbuster, while cameras on phones helped render photo processing obsolete and helped spark Apple’s rise and Kodak’s decline.
Artificial intelligence is “almost certainly overhyped in its initial implementation,” said Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. “But the longer-term ramifications are probably greater than we can imagine.”
Microsoft has added nearly $500 billion in market value since the tech giant announced a $10 billion investment in startup OpenAI, developer of ChatGPT, in January. Shares of Nvidia, which makes chips needed to power the chatbots, have risen 96% so far this year. Google parent Alphabet shed $100 billion in market value in a single day earlier this year after its chatbot Bard underwhelmed investors, though those losses quickly reversed.
Alphabet shares are up 22% this year.
Those moves might prove ephemeral as the technology’s power becomes clearer, said Daniel Morgan, senior portfolio manager at Synovus Trust. “The most difficult thing to ascertain is, what is going to be the impact of all that spending to these companies on revenues and profits?” His fund owns shares of Microsoft, Alphabet and Nvidia.
The flurry of investor interest has pushed valuations higher. Nvidia trades at 164 times its past 12 months of earnings, according to FactSet. Microsoft and Alphabet trade at 33 times and 24 times, respectively.
Portfolio managers said the race to understand the implications of AI’s emergence is essential, both to invest in the technology’s winners and to avoid its eventual losers. Shares of Chegg fell 48% last week after the study-materials company said that the rise of ChatGPT was harming its ability to attract new customers.
“You just don’t know all the knock-on effects,” said Will Graves, chief investment officer at Boardman Bay Capital Management. “If this really is an iPhone moment, nobody saw that Uber was coming out of the iPhone to hammer the taxi industry.”
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The lunar flyby would be the deepest humans have traveled in space in decades.
4 min
It’s go time for the highest-stakes mission at NASA in more than 50 years.
On April 1, the agency is set to launch four astronauts around the moon, the deepest human spaceflight since the final Apollo lunar landing in 1972.
The launch window for Artemis II , as the mission is called, opens at 6:24 p.m. ET.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration teams have been preparing the vehicles to depart from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center on the planned roughly 10-day trip. Crew members have trained for years for this moment.
Reid Wiseman, the NASA astronaut serving as mission commander, said he doesn’t fear taking the voyage. A widower, he does worry at times about what he is putting his daughters through.
“I could have a very comfortable life for them,” Wiseman said in an interview last September.
“But I’m also a human, and I see the spirit in their eyes that is burning in my soul too. And so we’ve just got to never stop going.”
Wiseman’s crewmates on Artemis II are NASA’s Victor Glover and Christina Koch, as well as Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen.
What are the goals for Artemis II?
The biggest one: Safely fly the crew on vehicles that have never carried astronauts before.
The towering Space Launch System rocket has the job of lofting a vehicle called Orion into space and on its way to the moon.
Orion is designed to carry the crew around the moon and back. Myriad systems on the ship—life support, communications, navigation—will be tested with the astronauts on board.
SLS and Orion don’t have much flight experience. The vehicles last flew in 2022, when the agency completed its uncrewed Artemis I mission .
How is the mission expected to unfold?
Artemis II will begin when SLS takes off from a launchpad in Florida with Orion stacked on top of it.
The so-called upper stage of SLS will later separate from the main part of the rocket with Orion attached, and use its engine to set up the latter vehicle for a push to the moon.
After Orion separates from the upper stage, it will conduct what is called a translunar injection—the engine firing that commits Orion to soaring out to the moon. It will fly to the moon over the course of a few days and travel around its far side.
Orion will face a tough return home after speeding through space. As it hits Earth’s atmosphere, Orion will be flying at 25,000 miles an hour and face temperatures of 5,000 degrees as it slows down. The capsule is designed to land under parachutes in the Pacific Ocean, not far from San Diego.
Is it possible Artemis II will be delayed?
Yes.
For safety reasons, the agency won’t launch if certain tough weather conditions roll through the Cape Canaveral, Fla., area. Delays caused by technical problems are possible, too. NASA has other dates identified for the mission if it doesn’t begin April 1.
Who are the astronauts flying on Artemis II?
The crew will be led by Wiseman, a retired Navy pilot who completed military deployments before joining NASA’s astronaut corps. He traveled to the International Space Station in 2014.
Two other astronauts will represent NASA during the mission: Glover, an experienced Navy pilot, and Koch, who began her career as an electrical engineer for the agency and once spent a year at a research station in the South Pole. Both have traveled to the space station before.
Hansen is a military pilot who joined Canada’s astronaut corps in 2009. He will be making his first trip to space.
Koch’s participation in Artemis II will mark the first time a woman has flown beyond orbits near Earth. Glover and Hansen will be the first African-American and non-American astronauts, respectively, to do the same.
What will the astronauts do during the flight?
The astronauts will evaluate how Orion flies, practice emergency procedures and capture images of the far side of the moon for scientific and exploration purposes (they may become the first humans to see parts of the far side of the lunar surface). Health-tracking projects of the astronauts are designed to inform future missions.
Those efforts will play out in Orion’s crew module, which has about two minivans worth of living area.
On board, the astronauts will spend about 30 minutes a day exercising, using a device that allows them to do dead lifts, rowing and more. Sleep will come in eight-hour stretches in hammocks.
There is a custom-made warmer for meals, with beef brisket and veggie quiche on the menu.
Each astronaut is permitted two flavored beverages a day, including coffee. The crew will hold one hourlong shared meal each day.
The Universal Waste Management System—that’s the toilet—uses air flow to pull fluid and solid waste away into containers.
What happens after Artemis II?
Assuming it goes well, NASA will march on to Artemis III, scheduled for next year. During that operation, NASA plans to launch Orion with crew members on board and have the ship practice docking with lunar-lander vehicles that Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin have been developing. The rendezvous operations will occur relatively close to Earth.
NASA hopes that its contractors and the agency itself are ready to attempt one or more lunar landing missions in 2028. Many current and former spaceflight officials are skeptical that timeline is feasible.
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