The two Australian states where it’s a buyers’ market
Property values have experienced strong growth around the country, but there are two highly desirable areas where oversupply is putting downward pressure on sales
2 min
While property values are rising strongly in most markets across Australia, it’s a vastly different story in Victoria and Tasmania, new data from CoreLogic shows. Over the 12 months to May 31, the median house price lifted just 1.8 percent in Melbourne and fell 0.6 percent in regional Victoria. The median dipped 0.1 percent in Hobart and ticked 0.4 percent higher in regional Tasmania. This is in stark contrast to Perth, where values are up 22 percent, and regional Western Australia, up 14.8 percent; as well as Brisbane, up 16.3 percent, and regional Queensland, up 11.8 percent.
CoreLogic Head of Research, Eliza Owen says an oversupply of homes for sale has weakened prices in Victoria and Tasmania, creating buyers’ markets.
“On the supply side, there has been more of a build-up in new listings than usual across Victoria, even where home value performance has been relatively soft,” Ms Owen said. “Victoria has also had more dwellings completed than any other state and territory in the past 10 years, keeping a lid on price growth. The additional choice in stock … means vendors have to bring down their price expectations, and that brings values down.”
Melbourne dwelling values are now four percent below their record high and Hobart dwelling values are 11.5 percent below their record high. Both records were set more than two years ago in March 2022. The oversupply has also affected how long it takes to sell a property. The median days on market is currently 36 in Melbourne and 45 in Hobart compared to a combined capitals median of 27. It takes 55 days to sell in regional Victoria and 64 days in regional Tasmania compared to a combined regional median of 42 days.
Changes in population patterns have also contributed to higher numbers of homes for sale in recent years. Since COVID began in early 2020, thousands of families have left Melbourne because working from home meant they could buy a bigger property in more affordable areas. While many relocated to regional Victoria, a significant proportion left the state altogether, with South-East Queensland a favoured destination. Meantime, Tasmania’s surge in interstate migration during FY21 was short-lived. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows the island state has recorded a net loss of residents to other states and territories every quarter since June 2022.
Record overseas migration has more than offset interstate migration losses, thereby keeping Victoria’s and Tasmania’s populations growing. However, the impact of migrants on housing is largely seen in the rental market, so this segment of population gain has done little to support values. Growth in weekly rents has been far stronger than growth in home values over the past year, with rents up 9 percent in Melbourne and 4.8 percent in regional Victoria, and up 1 percent in Hobart and 2.7 percent in regional Tasmania.
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Melbourne is poised to become Australia’s largest city within the next decade, with strong population growth, infrastructure investment and relative affordability driving long-term property demand.
A new research report from Knight Frank argues the Victorian capital remains one of the country’s most compelling markets for investors, businesses and residents.
The report highlights the city’s rapidly expanding population, diverse economy and major infrastructure pipeline as key factors underpinning future property growth.
Knight Frank Managing Director Victoria, Dominic Long, said Melbourne’s fundamentals continue to position the city strongly for long-term investment.
“Melbourne continues to stand out as one of Australia’s most compelling real estate markets,” he said.
“It is Australia’s strongest long-term growth city with the fastest growing population, the most diversified economy, world-class liveability and the most affordable major market for office, industrial and residential property.”
Population growth driving demand
Melbourne’s population has grown at an average rate of 1.8 per cent per year since 2000, faster than any advanced global economy, according to the research.
In the year to June 2025 alone, the city added about 123,500 residents, the largest annual increase of any Australian capital.
Population growth is expected to remain one of the key drivers of demand across residential and commercial property markets, including housing, offices and logistics space.
The report forecasts Melbourne’s population will overtake Sydney’s by the 2030s, reinforcing its position as the country’s fastest-growing major city.
Office market offering value
Melbourne’s CBD office market is also attracting renewed attention from investors.
Prime office rents remain significantly lower than in competing cities, with CBD office space about 46 per cent cheaper than Sydney and around 13 per cent cheaper than Brisbane.
That relative affordability is expected to drive long-term demand from occupiers and investors seeking value in Australia’s largest office markets.
The city’s office sector is also showing signs of recovery, with effective rents rising in 2025 and demand increasing for high-quality buildings in premium locations.
Industrial market benefiting from scale
Melbourne’s industrial sector continues to expand, supported by strong population growth, e-commerce demand and the scale of the city’s logistics network.
The city already hosts the country’s largest industrial market, with about 34 million square metres of warehousing stock and significant land available for future development.
Industrial rents remain competitive compared with other capitals, while Melbourne’s port handles the largest container volumes in Australia, further supporting demand for logistics space.
Infrastructure pipeline supporting growth
More than $200 billion in transport infrastructure investment between 2014 and 2036 is also expected to reshape the city and support future property values.
Major projects include the Metro Tunnel, the West Gate Tunnel, the North-East Link and the Suburban Rail Loop, which together will improve connectivity across Melbourne and its growth corridors.
Knight Frank’s Head of Research & Consulting, Victoria, Dr Tony McGough, said these investments would play a key role in supporting the city’s economic expansion.
“Melbourne is Australia’s most economically diverse city and has delivered stable growth for more than two decades,” he said.
“With strong population growth, a highly educated workforce and unprecedented infrastructure investment, Melbourne is well placed to remain one of Australia’s most attractive long-term property markets.”
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