Cruise Stocks Get Upgraded by Macquarie, Because Covid’s Worst Is in the Past
Macquarie Research has upgraded the cruise stocks to Outperform, asserting that “most negative catalysts are in the rear-view mirror.”
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Macquarie Research has upgraded the cruise stocks to Outperform, asserting that “most negative catalysts are in the rear-view mirror.”
Based on valuation, Paul Golding and Charles Yu of Macquarie wrote that they see the most upside in Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (ticker: NCLH), followed by Carnival (CCL), and Royal Caribbean Group (RCL). They upgraded the stocks from Neutral.
Shares for Norwegian were at $31 and change Tuesday morning, up 4.6% in early trading, while Royal Caribbean and Carnival were also each up more than 4%.
The cruise operators have for the most part been unable to have any sailings for about a year due to the pandemic. A key question is when sailings in and out of U.S. reports will resume. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a conditional sail order last October, but U.S. sailings haven’t resumed. The cruise companies have suspended their U.S. sailings well into the spring.
Golding and Yu wrote that “technical instructions from the CDC are also forthcoming and could drive more confidence.”
In an email to Barron’s early last month, a CDC representative wrote: “Future orders and technical instructions will address additional activities to help cruise lines prepare for and return to passenger operations in a manner that mitigates COVID-19 risk among passengers, crew members, including simulated voyages, certification for conditional sailing, and restricted voyages.”
Although still well below their pre-pandemic levels in early 2020, the cruise stocks have been moving up as investors get more confident about a reopening of the economy. As of Monday’s close, the stocks of all three companies were up by at least 15% year to date.
Besides forthcoming guidance from the CDC, macro catalysts for the cruise companies include “an expectation of sufficient vaccine efficacy for consumers to feel comfortable engaging in leisure activities.”
“While shares have bounced quite a way off their 1-[year] lows, and barring recession or a sector rerating, the catalysts should trend more positive from here into summer,” they wrote.
The research note points out that Carnival’s announcement last month that it had closed on a $3.5 billion senior unsecured debt offering “bodes well” for its liquidity situation and for the industry’s. “It demonstrates the potential for the group to continue to fund operations even if the suspension gets drawn out,” they noted.
Separately, Carnival announced last month that it had priced an offering for its 40.5 million shares of common stock at $25.10. That adds up to about $1 billion of additional capital, one of various steps the company has taken to shore up its liquidity as its ships sit idle and it burns through hundreds of millions of dollars every month.
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Consumers are going to gravitate toward applications powered by the buzzy new technology, analyst Michael Wolf predicts
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
After appeals to cashed-up Australians to stop spending, there’s a little inflationary relief in sight
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The rate of inflation in Australia has fallen to 4.9 percent, according to data from the Consumer Price Index. Inflation is down from 5.6 percent in September and a peak of 8.4 percent in December 2022.
The housing, transport and food and non-alcoholic beverages sectors were the strongest contributors to the October increase, which is consistent with trends shown in ABS data from September.
“CPI inflation is often impacted by items with volatile price changes like Automotive fuel, Fruit and vegetables, and Holiday travel,” said acting head of price statistics at the ABS, Leigh Merrington. “It can be helpful to exclude these items from the headline CPI to provide a view of underlying inflation.”
Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose from 4.7 percent in September to 5.3 percent in the 12 months to October, driven by the rising prices of melons and bananas.
In good news for would-be home builders, new dwelling prices rose 4.7 percent, the lowest annual rise since August 2021, as a result of easing material supply conditions.
While the ABS noted that electricity prices rose 10.1 percent in the year to October, Mr Merrington said it could have been worse, if not for the introduction of the Energy Bill Relief Fund.
“Electricity prices have risen 8.4 per cent since June 2023. Excluding the rebates, Electricity prices would have increased 18.8 per cent over this period,” Mr Merrington said.
The inflation figures come ahead of the final meeting for the year of the RBA Board next Tuesday. The board raised the cash rate by 25 basis points at the November meeting following an increase in the rate of inflation in September.
Consumers are going to gravitate toward applications powered by the buzzy new technology, analyst Michael Wolf predicts
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
