David Hockney’s ‘Early Morning, Sainte-Maxime’ Could Fetch $11.5 Million

David Hockney’s painting Early Morning, Sainte-Maxime will be auctioned in October at Christie’s in London, with an estimate of between £7 million and £10 million (US$8.1 million and US$11.5 million).

Starting Saturday, the 1969 painting will be exhibited, along with some US$440 million-worth artworks, by Christie’s during the inaugural Frieze Seoul art fair in Seoul, South Korea.

The painting is one of four paintings Hockney created based on photographs taken during a trip to France with his then partner, Peter Schlesinger, an American artist and model, in autumn 1968. It depicts a sublime view in the South of France, near Saint Tropez.

“This exquisite scene captures the vibrant hues that the sun casts as it rises over the glistening water of the French Riviera,” Katharine Arnold, head of post-war and contemporary art at Christie’s Europe, said in a statement. The painting “demonstrates Hockney’s masterful ability to translate the multifaceted qualities of water to canvas.”

Hockney, 85, is one of the most commercially successful living artists in the world. A total of 511 Hockney works were sold in 2020—the latest year from which data is available—at public auctions with a total value of US$132 million, making him the top-selling living artist.

A prolific artist, Hockney is best known for his swimming pool series. His 1972 work, Portrait of an Artist (Pool with Two Figures), sold in November 2018 at Christie’s in New York for US$90.3 million, a then-record for any artwork by a living artist sold at auction.

While the 1972 masterwork was created as Hockney was dealing with the heartbreak after his relationship with Schlesinger ended, Early Morning, Sainte-Maxime preceded that and was painted as their relationship was blossoming. From the painting, “we see the artist expressing his feelings of deep contentment and ease,” Arnold said.

Early Morning, Sainte-Maxime last sold at auction in 1988 and has not been seen in public for more than 34 years, according to Christie’s, which will offer it as a highlight of its 20th and 21st-century art sale on Oct. 13 in London.

The painting will travel to Hong Kong from Seoul for a public exhibition from Sept. 14 to 16, then to New York from Sept. 24 to 28 before returning to London for viewing from Oct. 6 to 13.

Australia is in the midst of a ‘baby recession’ with preliminary estimates showing the number of births in 2023 fell by more than four percent to the lowest level since 2006, according to KPMG. The consultancy firm says this reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on the feasibility of younger Australians starting a family.

KPMG estimates that 289,100 babies were born in 2023. This compares to 300,684 babies in 2022 and 309,996 in 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said weak economic growth often leads to a reduced number of births. In 2023, ABS data shows gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 1.5 percent. Despite the population growing by 2.5 percent in 2023, GDP on a per capita basis went into negative territory, down one percent over the 12 months.

“Birth rates provide insight into long-term population growth as well as the current confidence of Australian families,” said Mr Rawnsley. “We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the period of economic stagflation in the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”

Mr Rawnsley said many Australian couples delayed starting a family while the pandemic played out in 2020. The number of births fell from 305,832 in 2019 to 294,369 in 2020. Then in 2021, strong employment and vast amounts of stimulus money, along with high household savings due to lockdowns, gave couples better financial means to have a baby. This led to a rebound in births.

However, the re-opening of the global economy in 2022 led to soaring inflation. By the start of 2023, the Australian consumer price index (CPI) had risen to its highest level since 1990 at 7.8 percent per annum. By that stage, the Reserve Bank had already commenced an aggressive rate-hiking strategy to fight inflation and had raised the cash rate every month between May and December 2022.

Five more rate hikes during 2023 put further pressure on couples with mortgages and put the brakes on family formation. “This combination of the pandemic and rapid economic changes explains the spike and subsequent sharp decline in birth rates we have observed over the past four years,” Mr Rawnsley said.

The impact of high costs of living on couples’ decision to have a baby is highlighted in births data for the capital cities. KPMG estimates there were 60,860 births in Sydney in 2023, down 8.6 percent from 2019. There were 56,270 births in Melbourne, down 7.3 percent. In Perth, there were 25,020 births, down 6 percent, while in Brisbane there were 30,250 births, down 4.3 percent. Canberra was the only capital city where there was no fall in the number of births in 2023 compared to 2019.

“CPI growth in Canberra has been slightly subdued compared to that in other major cities, and the economic outlook has remained strong,” Mr Rawnsley said. “This means families have not been hurting as much as those in other capital cities, and in turn, we’ve seen a stabilisation of births in the ACT.”

David Hockney’s ‘Early Morning, Sainte-Maxime’ Could Fetch $11.5 Million

Continued stagflation and cost of living pressures are causing couples to think twice about starting a family, new data has revealed, with long term impacts expected