First Bitcoin Futures ETF Rises In Trading Debut

The first bitcoin-focused exchange-traded fund rose in its trading debut Tuesday after getting a warm reception from investors.

The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF climbed most of the day, gaining nearly 5% to settle at US$41.94. About US$981 million of shares changed hands over the session, making it the second-most highly-traded ETF debut ever, according to Elisabeth Kashner, director of ETF research at FactSet.

The launch is being closely watched on Wall Street, where finding a way to sell securities linked to bitcoin has been a priority for many firms. Bethesda, Md.-based ProShares rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday to celebrate the launch of its ETF, which goes by the ticker BITO and holds bitcoin futures contracts rather than the cryptocurrency.

“There are a multitude of investors who have brokerage accounts and are comfortable buying stocks and ETFs,” said ProShares Chief Executive Michael Sapir in an interview. “We think this will appeal to them.”

Among the fund’s first-day investors was Thomas Johnson, who is 33 years old and works in pharmaceutical sales in Orlando, Fla. Soon after the fund started trading, Mr. Johnson said he used about 15% of the assets in his retirement account to buy shares of the fund.

“I see cryptocurrencies as a whole as something that will outperform the stock market,” said Mr. Johnson.

He added that it was his first ever purchase of an ETF, although he started buying bitcoin a year earlier.

Other asset managers are expected to launch similar funds, including Valkyrie Investments, VanEck and others. But one of the biggest global asset-management firms, Invesco, on Monday put its bitcoin futures ETF on hold.

“We have determined not to pursue the launch of a Bitcoin futures ETF in the immediate near term,” an Invesco spokeswoman said in a statement. The firm said it is committed to working with its partner, Galaxy Digital Holdings, on an ETF that holds crypto rather than futures.

Invesco didn’t elaborate on the decision.

The firm amended its filing late Monday, pushing the fund’s effective date toward the end of the month rather than withdrawing it altogether, signalling the ETF might still launch later on.

Thomas Lee, a managing partner at research firm Fundstrat Advisors, said the ProShares ETF will enable more individuals to invest in bitcoin. He said assets in the fund could rise to as much as $50 billion from the $20 million the fund started with on Tuesday.

“This will drive higher asset prices via network effects,” Mr. Lee said. He said bitcoin could rise to $168,000 from a recent $64,000.

Bitcoin has climbed 48% since September, reflecting in part purchases driven by the prospective launch of the ProShares ETF and rivals.

The ETF came online following an eight-year effort by asset managers to create funds that hold actual bitcoins. The Securities and Exchange Commission, which hasn’t supported that approach because of concerns that bitcoin trading isn’t transparent enough to protect investors from fraud and manipulation, instead steered asset managers toward the creation of a bitcoin futures product.

Unlike digital currencies, futures trade on regulated venues such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Futures-based ETFs are sometimes hampered by discrepancies between the futures market and the underlying assets they track.

Asset managers say that is a trade-off some investors are likely willing to make to get exposure to crypto through the more-regulated futures market.

“That’s what I’m counting on. Other investors will see value in the ETF, or at least more of a safety net and be more willing to invest” in crypto, added Mr. Johnson.

Even with the promise of regulatory oversight, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler warned investors Tuesday that bitcoin futures remain just as risky as the cryptocurrency itself.

“It’s still a highly speculative asset class and listeners should understand that underneath this, it still has that same aspect of volatility and speculation,” Mr. Gensler said in a CNBC interview.

Australia is in the midst of a ‘baby recession’ with preliminary estimates showing the number of births in 2023 fell by more than four percent to the lowest level since 2006, according to KPMG. The consultancy firm says this reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on the feasibility of younger Australians starting a family.

KPMG estimates that 289,100 babies were born in 2023. This compares to 300,684 babies in 2022 and 309,996 in 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said weak economic growth often leads to a reduced number of births. In 2023, ABS data shows gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 1.5 percent. Despite the population growing by 2.5 percent in 2023, GDP on a per capita basis went into negative territory, down one percent over the 12 months.

“Birth rates provide insight into long-term population growth as well as the current confidence of Australian families,” said Mr Rawnsley. “We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the period of economic stagflation in the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”

Mr Rawnsley said many Australian couples delayed starting a family while the pandemic played out in 2020. The number of births fell from 305,832 in 2019 to 294,369 in 2020. Then in 2021, strong employment and vast amounts of stimulus money, along with high household savings due to lockdowns, gave couples better financial means to have a baby. This led to a rebound in births.

However, the re-opening of the global economy in 2022 led to soaring inflation. By the start of 2023, the Australian consumer price index (CPI) had risen to its highest level since 1990 at 7.8 percent per annum. By that stage, the Reserve Bank had already commenced an aggressive rate-hiking strategy to fight inflation and had raised the cash rate every month between May and December 2022.

Five more rate hikes during 2023 put further pressure on couples with mortgages and put the brakes on family formation. “This combination of the pandemic and rapid economic changes explains the spike and subsequent sharp decline in birth rates we have observed over the past four years,” Mr Rawnsley said.

The impact of high costs of living on couples’ decision to have a baby is highlighted in births data for the capital cities. KPMG estimates there were 60,860 births in Sydney in 2023, down 8.6 percent from 2019. There were 56,270 births in Melbourne, down 7.3 percent. In Perth, there were 25,020 births, down 6 percent, while in Brisbane there were 30,250 births, down 4.3 percent. Canberra was the only capital city where there was no fall in the number of births in 2023 compared to 2019.

“CPI growth in Canberra has been slightly subdued compared to that in other major cities, and the economic outlook has remained strong,” Mr Rawnsley said. “This means families have not been hurting as much as those in other capital cities, and in turn, we’ve seen a stabilisation of births in the ACT.”

First Bitcoin Futures ETF Rises In Trading Debut

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF advances nearly 5% following its closely watched launch.

Continued stagflation and cost of living pressures are causing couples to think twice about starting a family, new data has revealed, with long term impacts expected