Is gold’s strength a flash in the pan or a golden opportunity?
The yellow metal just completed its best two-quarter stretch in eight years on its way to a record high of $2,319 per ounce today.
That performance comes as a bit of a surprise at first blush. After all, gold prices typically rise when interest rates decrease and fall when rates swing higher. Yet recent economic data suggest the Federal Reserve will have to keep interest rates elevated for longer than previously thought to tame inflation.
There has been some good news on inflation. Last Friday, for instance, we learned that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose just 2.8% year over year and 0.3% month over month, as expected , in February.
Shorter-term trends paint a more challenging picture for the Fed, however, given that the three-month core PCE trend reflects 3.5% annual growth compared with 2.5% in late 2023.
“The relevant news is that recent inflation data are rising briskly,” writes Michael Lewis, who heads Free Market Inc., an economic consulting firm. This translates into higher rates for longer as the odds of a June rate cut have fallen to 58% from 73% a month ago. Mary Daly, the chief of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, said Tuesday there is “ really no urgency ” to cut rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell echoed that sentiment today.
Monday’s ISM manufacturing index report reinforces that narrative . In March, the index delivered its strongest growth since September 2022, rising to 50.3, easily exceeding the expectation of 48.4.
Not surprisingly, on Monday, stocks fell as the yield on the 10-year bond surged to 4.32%. Tuesday we saw more of the same with key stock indexes falling and the 10-year yield rising as high as 4.4% , its highest level in 2024 . Higher rates have been pressuring stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies .
Gold is powering higher, however. March 22 is the last day that gold prices fell. The price of gold has risen 9.7% this year while the yield on the 10-year has gained 10.4%.
“Gold is the near-zero yielder that is then showing record demand, despite a world where high nominal yields and carry are still dominant,” wrote Deutsche Bank macro strategist Alan Ruskin in a newsletter last week. “If gold prices won’t go down in an inflated nominal yield world, they can surely go up as the G-10 yield plateau gives way, and yields likely start their descent in” the second half of this year, Ruskin continued.
So what explains gold’s recent rise amid higher rates? Strong demand from China is one factor . The People’s Bank of China went on a buying spree last year, acquiring a net 225 metric tons of gold—the most among all central banks and the country’s biggest expansion of gold reserves since 1977.
With China’s central bank reserves at a record high, its consumers are also actively buying the precious metal, partly due to concerns about their economy and stock market. Among Chinese investors, demand for gold-related ETFs is “booming,” according to The Wall Street Journal, and Chinese imports of gold have surged 51% in the first two months of 2024 compared with the same period last year.
Gold’s more volatile counterpart, silver, surged to a two-year high today, gaining 5% to $27.22 per ounce. Unlike gold, which is at a record high, silver would need to rise more than 80% to reach its 2011 high of near $50.
“The formerly nonchalant silver finally appears ready to join gold’s advance,” John Roque, a technical analyst at 22V Research, wrote in a note, Barron’s reported . “$30 as the first target and then, presuming a breakout, $40 as the second target.” Silver prices are up 12.5% this year.
The entire commodities complex is showing relative strength as the Bloomberg Commodity Index is at its highest level since December . Crude oil is 20.6% higher this year.
Safe-haven demand for gold may increase given fast-rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Moreover, concerns about the national debt are growing louder and more pointed from notable figures across the political spectrum. Unfortunately, there is no indication that politicians will quit pandering to short-term considerations (meaning votes) by making tough choices. As such, expect them to keep playing Kick the Can until one of them slices their foot.
Given all of this, the outlook for gold remains bright . On March 29, Barron’s cited an analysis by economist Charles Gave, founder of Gavekal Research. “The S&P 500 is on the verge of becoming overvalued versus the stock of capital, while gold is almost undervalued against my measure of retained earnings.”
Gave added, “Gold is ‘undervalued’ against the S&P 500 by a hefty -52% and -13% versus its own long-term trend. In contrast, the S&P 500 stands 33% above its own long-term trend level.” Recommending that investors hedge equity exposure with at least 20% of their portfolio in gold, Gave concluded, “At this point my preference based on the relative position of the two reserve assets is to favour gold, followed by equities.”
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Social media personality Supercar Blondie, a London-based Australian whose real name is Alex Hirschi, found her niche posting automotive eyecandy for eager viewers rather accidentally.
“I started out as a journalist, and I just fell into cars through my radio show,” says Hirschi.
For someone who “fell into” cars, they’ve certainly been good to her—the Supercar Blondie network of social channels that includes Supercarblondie.com has 110 million subscribers, including 18.4 million on YouTube and 56 million on Facebook. The content has 2 billion views per month, according to the company.
Hirschi, whose first car was a lowly Mitsubishi Lancer, produces the Supercar Blondie content with her husband, Nik Hirschi, who is Swiss. The radio show was on the Arabian Radio Network in Dubai from 2012 to 2017. Dubai is full of supercars, and Hirschi, then known as “Radio Blondie,” said it was a natural fit to drive some of them—Bentleys, McLarens, Ferraris—for on-air features. The independent Supercar Blondie content creation company was launched in Dubai (where Nik Hirschi worked at Bloomberg, Barclays, and Thomson Reuters) in 2017 and has been growing ever since.
“I just loved supercars, and what started out as a hobby after I was loaned a Bentley Flying Spur to drive around Dubai eventually got more serious,” Alex Hirschi says. “We started filming my encounters with cars and uploading the video to our channel.” These days the couple travels 300 days a year; Penta first caught up with them at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas .
And now SB Media Group, based in London with 65 employees, Nik as CEO and Alex as the co-founder and on-air talent, is going into the auto auction business. SBX Cars, based in California, launched this week. The inaugural inventory goes beyond cars, and includes an electric Tyde hydrofoil yacht designed by BMW. There’s also a no-reserve Tesla Cybertruck, a one-of-nine Lamborghini Veneno Roadster, and a one-of-three Lamborghini Veneno Coupe. Likely attracting attention will be the first public auctions of the Mercedes-AMG One and the Hyperion XP-1 hydrogen-powered prototype. There were three LaFerrari prototypes, and one will be auctioned by SBX Cars.
A collection of John Player Special Lotus F1 racing cars will also be auctioned, as well as Lotus transporters, and founder Colin Chapman’s personal plane and some vehicles from his garage. Other high-dollar items include a Mercedes 300SL “Gullwing,” a Lamborghini Miura, a BMW 507, and an Aston Martin DB5. The estimated valuation of the auction lots consigned is US$100 million.
The auctions will be online, but there could be some in-person events in the future. “We’re going to be the only digital auction site that focuses on the high end,” Nik Hirschi says. “We will focus on cars that are super-cool, with many that are one-of-a-kind, and we’re going to be attracting collectors from all over the world. Every car will be represented on the site with 200 photographs, taken by our global network.” Video will also be available.
SBX Cars says it will speed up the process for consignors, with just a few weeks until their cars become available on the site. Once up, the vehicles will remain available for one to two weeks. SBX Cars Auction Director Lance Butler, a Bonhams veteran, said in a statement that the auction “introduces our clients to a far easier buying and selling process, all while accessing one of the world’s largest global audiences by way of Supercar Blondie.”
Mercedes 300SLs, Aston Martin DB5s, and BMW 507s are frequently auctioned around the globe, but SBX features some true exotics.
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