Investors Are Betting on a Market Melt-Up
They have flocked to stock funds at a pace rarely seen since 2008, but some warn that shares look expensive historically
They have flocked to stock funds at a pace rarely seen since 2008, but some warn that shares look expensive historically
A roaring market rally since the U.S. presidential election has driven up the price of everything from shares of technology and manufacturing giants to cryptocurrencies. Many investors are betting it has room to run.
Investors have stampeded into funds tracking U.S. stocks and picked up trades that would profit if the rally that recently sent the S&P 500 above 6000 for the first time reaches new heights.
U.S. equity exchange-traded and mutual funds drew nearly $56 billion in the week ended Wednesday, the second-largest weekly haul in records going back to 2008, according to EPFR data. Such funds have drawn inflows for seven consecutive months, the longest streak since 2021, when a dizzying market melt-up sent stocks to repeated records.

Driving the optimism? Many investors said they expect lower taxes and fewer regulations during Donald Trump ’s second term as president.
Dominic Rizzo, a technology portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price , said tariffs could boost U.S. manufacturing, driving a surge in domestic spending and investment. Other investors are simply breathing a sigh of relief that the election has passed.
The share of investors surveyed by the American Association of Individual Investors who said they were bullish jumped to 49.8% this past week, while the share of those reporting a neutral sentiment dropped to the lowest level since 2022. About 40% of those surveyed said the U.S. election made them more optimistic about the market.
“Animal spirits are alive and well right now,” Rizzo said.
Rizzo oversees shares of Nvidia and other tech giants. After a big run-up, he is still optimistic about the group ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report Wednesday. Investors are also fixated on the presidential transition and how it might shape the market’s winners and losers.
Some market watchers caution that investors might be too quick to latch on to policies that could boost markets, while ignoring plans that might stir inflation and market volatility.
Stocks wobbled at the end of the past week, and bitcoin retreated. Trump’s appointment of the vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health and human services secretary pressured several stocks including Moderna and Pfizer . Shares of Tesla , which soared after the election and pushed the company’s market cap back above $1 trillion, have stumbled in recent sessions. Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group fell 12% for the week.

Still, the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite closed Friday within about 3.2% of their respective record highs. With just weeks left in 2024, the S&P 500 is on track to jump more than 20% for the year, the second consecutive year of gains of that magnitude. It is a back-to-back advance that has been seen only three times over the past century, according to Deutsche Bank.
Joe Johnson, 37, said he has waded into hot stocks including Nvidia, Tesla and a crypto play, MicroStrategy . His portfolio has swelled this year, and he is feeling so good about the market that he is thinking about pouring his cash pile into stocks. He is eyeing such industrial giants as Caterpillar and Deere , which he believes will benefit from a strong economy.
“I am bullish on the market,” Johnson said. “The euphoria everyone is feeling is warranted.”
Johnson said he is excited about Trump’s presidency and expects his policies to benefit his small business in Maryland, which sells boat-maintenance kits, engine parts and protective covers.
Many investors have piled into segments of the market such as small companies, which are especially sensitive to the economy.

The Russell 2000 has risen almost 2% since the election, and one of the largest exchange-traded funds tied to the index attracted $3.9 billion in inflows in a single session this month, the most since June 2007. Money managers, meanwhile, have increased positions that would pay out if the rally continued, driving net bullish bets in the futures market to the highest level in more than four years.
Some of the riskiest corners of financial markets are thriving too. Three of the top five days for trading in call options, trades that give the right to buy shares, have occurred this month, according to options records going back to 1973. That has pushed up the cost of bullish trades that would profit if stocks soared.
A frenzy of trading in cryptocurrencies sent bitcoin prices above $90,000 and unleashed a historic rush into crypto funds. Dogecoin, a speculative coin backed by nothing, shot up after Trump revealed plans to create a government-efficiency department called DOGE, to be co-led by Elon Musk , a dogecoin evangelist. Its $55 billion market cap now tops that of Ford Motor.

Trading in the over-the-counter market, which includes riskier securities such as penny stocks, has surged 27% in November from the same time last year, according to OTC Markets Group.
Some said stocks are looking expensive after their recent run. The S&P 500 recently traded at 22 times its expected earnings over the next 12 months, above its five-year average of roughly 20. A Bank of America strategist, Savita Subramanian, called market sentiment and positioning “dangerously bullish” in a note to clients Friday.
Bond investors have been sending a different signal, driving the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to 4.426% on Friday, up from 4.072% around a month ago. They are banking on bigger deficits and higher inflation in the years ahead. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated Thursday that the central bank will take its time to trim interest rates, pressuring bonds and stocks.
One measure closely tracked by investors, the equity risk premium —or the gap between the S&P 500’s earnings yield and that of 10-year Treasurys—shrank close to zero, the lowest level since 2002, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That means the reward for owning stocks over bonds is dwindling.
“The market is awfully expensive to have a melt-up,” said Rob Arnott , the founder and chairman of Research Affiliates.
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From early financial mistakes to hard-earned habits, five high-performing leaders share how they spend, invest and think about wealth.
Five minutes doesn’t sound like much. But it’s enough time to tell whether someone really understands money or just talks about it. Because once the gloss is stripped away, what’s left is instinct. The early mistakes. The bad calls. The quiet pivots that no one brags about but shape everything that follows. Making money is one thing. Living with it, and not mishandling it, is another. Here, five executives talk about what they got wrong, what they’ve learned, and how they now actually spend, invest and think about wealth.
Andrew Raso: Founder, Online Marketing Gurus

Self-made millionaire Andrew Raso grew up in an ethnic household with a father in construction. Investing was not a priority, he recalls.
The co-founder and CEO of Online Marketing Gurus, a digital marketing platform that generated more than $30 million in revenue in the 204/25 financial year, admits he’s had to learn about handling money as his wealth has grown.
“If I had my time again, I would change my spending habits and would probably be a lot more wealthy as a result,” the Sydneysider tells Kanebridge Quarterly.
Raso, in his mid-30s, says that his biggest lessons have come from his losses.
Buying the wrong property and copping the losses upon sale. Feeling FOMO when buying crypto and making a purchase that lost money.
“I’ve learned a lot from the errors that I’ve made,” he says.
Raso admits that he gets more of a thrill out of working than watching money hit his bank account.
“I’ve had the cars, I’ve had the property, I’ve had the watches. Once you’ve had them, they’re not that exciting, but the process of earning money is pretty cool.”
What he won’t forget is being $45 million in property debt a few years ago.
“I’d never want to be in that position again,” he says.
“My investing strategy is a lot safer these days. I’m very cautious. I’d prefer to invest in things that don’t take as long to be realised so my family can be financially secure.
“Once you have a house paid off and a few investments, it then becomes about enjoying your money, rather than hoarding it. Giving back gives me a much bigger kick than spending these days.”
Daniel Wessels: CEO, Jacaranda Finance

Fintech founder Daniel Wessels knows only too well that money remains a taboo topic in Australia with many people.
He points to consumer surveys that reveal people are more likely to talk about their sex life with friends than their finances.
It’s a major concern for the man who founded Jacaranda Finance in 2013, which has helped countless people lift their credit scores and get their finances back on track.
“If people aren’t learning money habits at school and they aren’t discussing it with their friends, learning new strategies and better habits is difficult,” says Wessels, who is based in Brisbane.
He wants to see more people take the time to proactively understand where and why they are spending money.
“Everyone needs to have a financial strategy and a plan to measure if it’s working,” he says.
The father of two young children admits his week can be pretty fast-paced. Pomodoro clocks, sleep optimisation techniques and saying ‘no’ keep him on task during the week.
“I used to think I was fairly decent at managing time, but the whole game changed when we had kids,” he says.
“Now, I’ve got to get out of the house at a certain time and leave the office at a certain time for daycare pickup. I’ve got to be really specific about my tasks to maximise my week.”
Before he had a family, he loved heading out to one of the trendy new restaurants popping up in Brisbane.
But that happens less these days. He’s saving to build his forever home but admits that price rises have resulted in rising costs.
“It’s such a big project with so many variables that change quickly,” he says.
These days, Wessels likes to optimise his professional and personal life. “With only a finite amount of money, time and energy, you’ve got to be really good at deciding what you want to be good at,” he says.
He calls this ruthless prioritisation. He has a very specific focus on activities that prioritise health and wealth, adding experiences into the mix more recently. This has meant the addition of micro-holidays to his annual calendar.
Wessels works with a couple of financial advisers. That said, he also does his own due diligence before agreeing to investments.
“One likes private equity investments that pay cash every month and another prefers to focus on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange for buying shares because he’s bullish about that.” he says. “They’re each experts and really good at what they do.”
Jim Penman: CEO, Jim’s Group

He may have invested a lifetime building a franchise juggernaut that is reportedly a $1 billion a year empire, but Jim Penman insists he’s a frugal guy who prefers to spend time planting a tree in his garden than contemplating his wealth.
What started out as Jim’s Mowing back in 1989 became Jim’s Group. Today, there are 5,700 franchisees across Australia and New Zealand in the business that has become ubiquitous for being the local handyman company that households could rely on.
He may have built a successful business empire, but the Melburnian insists he’s stingy when it comes to money.
“I wear my clothes even today until they wear out. I’ve always had a very lean and mean attitude. I live a simple life. My personal needs are very modest and my finances are simple,” he says. Jim reveals he’s usually in his garden these days and rarely eats out or takes holidays.
He is also running for state politics in the November Victorian election.
“I’m not particularly money focused. I could tweak the franchise contract to put more fees in and double my profitability, but that’s not my goal or my aim. To be honest, I often make decisions that go against my financial self-interest,” he says.
Jim purchased his first brand new car three years ago, opting for an electric Volvo.
“Being rich is not my aim and it never has been. People think I’m a lot richer than I am. They think I’m a billionaire, which is kind of ridiculous,” he says.
In fact, he insists he carries debt, which is common for anyone in business. “If I wanted, I could pay it off in 18 months.”
While his competitors were spending on fancy office space, Penman was running his franchise from his basement, keeping business costs low. “When I started out, I didn’t have any concept of how big this business could be. But there has never been a plan to grow franchisee numbers.
“Our attrition rate is far more important, and how to reduce complaint rates and drive more enquiries through new software.”
He believes people these days worry too much about impressing others, which leads to spending on superficial things.
“I would rather than offer people advice on how to be happy, rather than how to become rich. It’s important to have a good income so you can support yourself. But life is more about purpose.”
Jim doesn’t bother with stocks or bonds. He only invests in his own business. “My rate of return on my business is substantial. I could buy back a regional franchise when they come on the market and get a 20-25 per cent annual rate of return, plus capital gains. There’s nothing like that available in the investment space.”
Nicola Beswick: Founder, White Rabbit Advisory

A clothing allowance provided by her parents and then a part-time job during high school was the first taste of financial freedom for Nicola Beswick.
She quickly became a spender rather than saver, but she’s changed her tune over the years.
The founder of financial advice firm White Rabbit Advisory left behind a successful career in intellectual property law a year ago to become a financial adviser because she realised the potential that financial education could have on someone’s life.
Her journey began after coming across the book Rich Dad Poor Dad some years ago, which opened her eyes to the power that money could have on her life. This marked a time when she became serious about her finances.
“Financial education and investing over time can have a huge impact on a person, and that book got me thinking about money and financial education in the first place,” she says.
Nicola says years ago, her father was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis. When dealing with the devastating news and an uncertain future, her father discovered he was eligible to receive an income protection payout.
“This was the stone that rippled his pond and mine. A new complex world of finance opened up and I discovered my calling – helping people plan for a financially secure future.”
She hasn’t looked back. “Commercial law was very transactional. I don’t regret quitting at all. I’m much happier now helping people get their finances in order. Financial planning helps people change their lives. That was a really big driver for me.”
The Melburnian admits she’s learned plenty of lessons along the way as she embarks on the process of building wealth. She uses superannuation as an investment vehicle, favouring its tax advantages.
“I also built a nest egg outside of super, because you never know when the rules will change,” she says.
She prefers to set a financial goal and save up for something specific over time than rush out and make a purchase.
“It’s a really powerful thing to wait before making a purchase,” she says.
Her current financial goals involve renovating her heritage-listed home. “We will keep the façade and gut it to rebuild. That’s a major expense for us on the horizon.”
While holidays are rare, she will spend on overseas trips on occasion. “I’m terrible at taking time off. I’m always working.”
Sam Riley: CEO, Drova

Sam Riley was in his 20s when he set out to amass enough money to be able to retire by the age of 40 if he wanted to.
“The goal was always to be doing something by 40 that kept me engaged enough that I didn’t actually want to retire because I was happy,” he says.
An entrepreneur at heart, Sam started a juice and espresso bar when he was 21, which didn’t work out. His next venture was a technology business, Ansarada, an ASX-listed company he ultimately sold nearly two years ago for $250 million.
The sale set him up for life, but he’s not one to rest on his laurels, launching into the complex world of artificial ntelligence with his next technology play, a company called Drova.
The technology startup simplifies risk, compliance and resilience for small businesses. Sam believes it’s got potential to become a tech juggernaut in time.
Having early financial success has meant he has the luxury of slow mornings and working in short bursts throughout the day, problem solving, experimenting with what works and figuring out how to harness AI.
“I favour a more sustainable approach to working these days. More frequent breaks. Making sure not to deteriorate my capacity,” he says.
It was a hard slog. He admits he touched the fringes of serious burnout when he was younger, which he works hard to avoid these days.
“Every business venture has exposed a gap in my skills that I’ve worked to close. Whether that’s marketing or managing people, closing those gaps along the way is how you get more effective at generating wealth,” he says.
The secret to his success has been finding ways to bolster value in the corporate world, finding ways to bring more to the table. Sam admits he spends too much money on travel, food and niche vinyl audio equipment, like turntables. He prefers to invest in experiences rather than things.
But it can get expensive. Like a recent trip to Antarctica to stay in a lodge for a week. “The thing is I didn’t like having these experiences on my own, so I have to bring family or other people and then pay for them.”
Sam describes his investment portfolio as balanced. While he continues to invest in entrepreneurial ventures, he admits he has a safe foundational platform to his investment approach.
“Over the years, I’ve added a lot more dividend stocks and protective assets like gold and silver, and some index funds.
“When I was younger, I didn’t appreciate the value of being safe and boring in the investment world.”
He says a lot of his investments used to be leading edge and visionary. “Some of them work, and some of them don’t. I didn’t really have much balance in my portfolio. I still invest in entrepreneurial things, but am much more conscious of taking a more even-handed approach,” he says.
This article appeared in the Winter 26 issue of Kanebridge Quarterly, which you can buy here.
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