Oil Producers Are Curbing Supplies. Expect The Oil Rally To Continue
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    HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $1,580,369 (+1.46%)       Melbourne $968,248 (+0.35%)       Brisbane $884,749 (+1.39%)       Adelaide $811,373 (-0.34%)       Perth $760,863 (-2.94%)       Hobart $742,968 (+1.78%)       Darwin $648,153 (+0.66%)       Canberra $952,739 (+1.89%)       National $998,019 (+0.96%)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $719,049 (-0.09%)       Melbourne $491,976 (+25.26%)       Brisbane $488,613 (+1.66%)       Adelaide $415,517 (+2.98%)       Perth $408,247 (-0.12%)       Hobart $506,404 (-0.82%)       Darwin $341,678 (-4.94%)       Canberra $481,116 (-2.08%)       National $504,022 (+1.79%)                HOUSES FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 10,856 (+1,115)       Melbourne 15,164 (+2,253)       Brisbane 8,441 (+272)       Adelaide 2,729 (+236)       Perth 6,841 (+1,523)       Hobart 1,229 (+73)       Darwin 276 (-10)       Canberra 1,109 (+217)       National 46,645 (+5,679)                UNITS FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 8,816 (+356)       Melbourne 8,019 (+4,046)       Brisbane 1,858 (+11)       Adelaide 509 (+3)       Perth 1,903 (-10)       Hobart 172 (+1)       Darwin 395 (+4)       Canberra 856 (+152)       National 22,528 (+4,563)                HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $780 (+$30)       Melbourne $570 ($0)       Brisbane $600 (-$30)       Adelaide $570 ($0)       Perth $630 (+$5)       Hobart $550 ($0)       Darwin $700 (+$5)       Canberra $680 (+$5)       National $644 (+$4)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $730 (-$30)       Melbourne $550 ($0)       Brisbane $625 (+$25)       Adelaide $450 (-$10)       Perth $575 (+$5)       Hobart $450 ($0)       Darwin $550 (-$10)       Canberra $565 (+$5)       National $575 (-$3)                HOUSES FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 5,423 (+399)       Melbourne 5,636 (+347)       Brisbane 4,280 (+665)       Adelaide 1,158 (+16)       Perth 1,894 (+159)       Hobart 373 (-3)       Darwin 149 (+7)       Canberra 629 (+31)       National 19,542 (+1,621)                UNITS FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 8,616 (+1,782)       Melbourne 5,988 (+275)       Brisbane 2,048 (+24)       Adelaide 365 (+22)       Perth 605 (-3)       Hobart 155 (+3)       Darwin 294 (+2)       Canberra 716 (+54)       National 18,787 (+2,159)                HOUSE ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND       Sydney 2.57% (↑)        Melbourne 3.06% (↓)       Brisbane 3.53% (↓)     Adelaide 3.65% (↑)      Perth 4.31% (↑)        Hobart 3.85% (↓)     Darwin 5.62% (↑)        Canberra 3.71% (↓)       National 3.35% (↓)            UNIT ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND         Sydney 5.28% (↓)       Melbourne 5.81% (↓)     Brisbane 6.65% (↑)        Adelaide 5.63% (↓)     Perth 7.32% (↑)      Hobart 4.62% (↑)      Darwin 8.37% (↑)      Canberra 6.11% (↑)        National 5.93% (↓)            HOUSE RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 0.7% (↑)      Melbourne 0.8% (↑)      Brisbane 0.4% (↑)      Adelaide 0.4% (↑)      Perth 1.2% (↑)      Hobart 0.6% (↑)      Darwin 1.1% (↑)      Canberra 0.7% (↑)      National 0.7% (↑)             UNIT RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 0.9% (↑)      Melbourne 1.4% (↑)      Brisbane 0.7% (↑)      Adelaide 0.3% (↑)      Perth 0.4% (↑)      Hobart 1.5% (↑)      Darwin 0.8% (↑)      Canberra 1.3% (↑)      National 0.9% (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL HOUSES AND TREND         Sydney 27.6 (↓)       Melbourne 28.8 (↓)       Brisbane 30.9 (↓)       Adelaide 24.3 (↓)       Perth 34.1 (↓)       Hobart 28.7 (↓)     Darwin 36.9 (↑)        Canberra 27.6 (↓)     National 29.9 (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL UNITS AND TREND         Sydney 28.6 (↓)       Melbourne 29.4 (↓)       Brisbane 30.6 (↓)       Adelaide 26.3 (↓)       Perth 39.8 (↓)       Hobart 22.1 (↓)       Darwin 37.9 (↓)       Canberra 33.4 (↓)       National 31.0 (↓)           
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Oil Producers Are Curbing Supplies. Expect The Oil Rally To Continue

By Simon Constable
Tue, Jan 19, 2021 12:19amGrey Clock 2 min

Increased global demand, together with recent supply cuts, could spark a more than 20% rally in oil prices this year, experts say.

“We expect prices to peak at $65 and remain in the range $55 to $65,” says Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York.Futures contracts for light sweet crude were recently fetching $53 a barrel on the Commodities Mercantile Exchange.

Traders wanting to profit from the potential rally should consider buying June-dated futures contracts for light sweet crude on the CME. Alternatively, they could try purchasing the Invesco DB Oil exchange-traded fund (ticker: DBO), which holds a basket of crude oil futures. The fund has gained 7.5% this year through Jan. 11. It lost 21% in 2020, according to Morningstar.

This year crude has already rallied about 9%, due in part to an unexpectedly bullish move by OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia) earlier this month.

The world’s second-largest producer, Saudi Arabia, surprised the world by announcing it would cut production in February and March by one million barrels a day (bpd). That move more than offset a combined 75,000 bpd increase for the same period by Russia and Kazakhstan.

Overall, the OPEC+ cut should help put a floor under prices, especially given that the member states will probably stick to their quotas. “We don’t see material risk to the group’s [OPEC’s] cohesion,” Barclays said in a recent report. Historically, OPEC members have often failed to stick to their production quotas, making price stability an issue.

Meanwhile, demand from China is higher than pre-pandemic levels. In the third and fourth quarters of 2020, the country consumed 13.7 million and 14 million bpd, respectively. That compares to an average of 13.3 million in 2019, according to OPEC.

Traders will likely bet on a rebound in demand for the rest of the world as Covid-19 vaccines allow people to return to business as usual. “My sense is that as we get back to a more normal society, we get a massive surge in people wanting to go flying and do things they could do before the pandemic,” says Jon Rigby, an oil analyst at UBS London. Such a scenario would mean an increase in oil demand, with air and land travel resulting in higher fuel consumption.

Oil prices will get an additional boost from a softer dollar. “My general view is that we won’t have a stronger dollar,” says Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. “Automatically, a little bit weaker dollar will add a little bit of strength to the oil price.” Oil gets priced in dollars, which means that in general, when the dollar weakens, crude prices tend to rally.

A price rally will likely be tempered by increasing supply from shale producers in North America, says Hogan of National Securities. While the Biden administration will likely reduce drilling on federal lands, there is still a lot of potential supply ready to tap when crude prices approach $60. “There is plenty for us in the next two years to increase our supply with hydraulic fracking,” he says.

Buying any commodity futures contract is a risky endeavour, and oil futures are no exception. The price of crude is subject to influences by national governments, geopolitical upheaval, and changes in the global economy. All these can result in significant price volatility.

Despite that, the odds looked stacked in favour of a rally in crude prices over the next few months. “We see prices going higher, if not meaningfully higher,” says Daryl Jones, director of research at Hedgeye Risk Management.



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After appeals to cashed-up Australians to stop spending, there’s a little inflationary relief in sight

By KANEBRIDGE NEWS
Wed, Nov 29, 2023 2 min

The rate of inflation in Australia has fallen to 4.9 percent, according to data from the Consumer Price Index. Inflation is down from 5.6 percent in September and a peak of 8.4 percent in December 2022.

The housing, transport and food and non-alcoholic beverages sectors were the strongest contributors to the October increase, which is consistent with trends shown in ABS data from September.

“CPI inflation is often impacted by items with volatile price changes like Automotive fuel, Fruit and vegetables, and Holiday travel,” said acting head of price statistics at the ABS, Leigh Merrington. “It can be helpful to exclude these items from the headline CPI to provide a view of underlying inflation.” 

Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose from 4.7 percent in September to 5.3 percent in the 12 months to October, driven by the rising prices of melons and bananas. 

Banana prices are trending upwards, contributing to higher food prices overall. Credit: Nigel Killeen/Getty Images

In good news for would-be home builders, new dwelling prices rose 4.7 percent, the lowest annual rise since August 2021, as a result of easing material supply conditions.

While the ABS noted that electricity prices rose 10.1 percent in the year to October, Mr Merrington said it could have been worse, if not for the introduction of the Energy Bill Relief Fund.

“Electricity prices have risen 8.4 per cent since June 2023. Excluding the rebates, Electricity prices would have increased 18.8 per cent over this period,” Mr Merrington said.  

The inflation figures come ahead of the final meeting for the year of the RBA Board next Tuesday. The board raised the cash rate by 25 basis points at the November meeting following an increase in the rate of inflation in September. 

 

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