Peloton Backpedals In Right Direction

Peloton Interactive built its business to delight its customers. Now it must do the same for its shareholders.

Peloton said Tuesday that it will stop producing its own hardware, exiting all owned manufacturing operations and expanding its relationship with its Taiwanese manufacturer, Rexon Industrial Corp. The move comes as Peloton’s new Chief Executive Barry McCarthy works to right the company’s financials, unwinding big, and in hindsight naive, bets co-founder John Foley made during his tenure.

Peloton’s shares, which have lost 92% of their value over the past year, jumped by almost 5% after the market’s open. A shift to outsourced manufacturing came as a relief. The about-face highlights what Mr. Foley got spectacularly wrong: Peloton acquired Taiwan-based manufacturer Tonic Fitness Technology back in 2019—a move Mr. Foley said was meant to help Peloton own the supply chain in an effort to increase scale and capacity, as well as to “delight” its members.

But, as online retailer Stitch Fix, another business currently undergoing major restructuring and suffering a similar stock price implosion also is learning, it is very hard to own every piece of your customers’ experience and grow exponentially without losing your investors. The numbers simply don’t add up.

Customers probably won’t care where their exercise bike is made, and in fact Rexon and other contract manufacturers had already been building some of Peloton’s components and equipment. Apple, a company with a reputation for design and a loyal customer base, outsources its manufacturing, largely to China. That wasn’t always the case, but outsourcing went a long way toward making the company highly profitable, courtesy of current Chief Executive Tim Cook. In Peloton’s case, it is worth noting that Rexon builds the company’s Tread treadmill and built its recalled Tread+, the sales of which are still on hold. As long as there are no more recalls, Peloton users are there for the company’s content, with the pretty hardware just a means to the end.

Mr. Foley wanted Wall Street to see Peloton as a growth company, and that is how it was valued at its peak. Ultimately, though, there are only going to be so many people interested in sweating profusely on an expensive stationary bike alongside kindred endorphin seekers the world over. As BMO analyst Simeon Siegel put it, Peloton is a company with a phenomenal stable of existing users and right now, it should be focused on “bear hugging” those loyalists.

Data from UBS show that adoption levels of Peloton’s cheaper app, which the company views as a key customer acquisition tool toward its more expensive subscription, continued to decline in May and early June. It also showed active users declining since January. YipitData shows subscriber retention for fiscal 2022 has slightly underperformed historical averages and that churn increased in June year over year. More broadly, Similarweb data shows “home fitness” web traffic declining 24% year over year for the most recently tracked two-week period in late June—the largest annual declines logged by the firm this year.

Wall Street will have to wait for Peloton’s fiscal fourth-quarter report for more granular details on how exactly Tuesday’s announcement will impact the company’s cost structure. A Peloton spokesperson confirmed the company would cut about 570 employees in Taiwan, but that 100 employees would remain in that business unit focused on quality control, engineering and research and development. And Peloton will get a new chief financial officer in Liz Coddington—previously of Amazon.com and Netflix—after the company said Jill Woodworth, who had served in that role since 2018, will step down.

The company we once knew as aspirational is quickly becoming a commodity. It will try to prove to its investors that it can at least be a hot one.

Australia is in the midst of a ‘baby recession’ with preliminary estimates showing the number of births in 2023 fell by more than four percent to the lowest level since 2006, according to KPMG. The consultancy firm says this reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on the feasibility of younger Australians starting a family.

KPMG estimates that 289,100 babies were born in 2023. This compares to 300,684 babies in 2022 and 309,996 in 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said weak economic growth often leads to a reduced number of births. In 2023, ABS data shows gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 1.5 percent. Despite the population growing by 2.5 percent in 2023, GDP on a per capita basis went into negative territory, down one percent over the 12 months.

“Birth rates provide insight into long-term population growth as well as the current confidence of Australian families,” said Mr Rawnsley. “We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the period of economic stagflation in the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”

Mr Rawnsley said many Australian couples delayed starting a family while the pandemic played out in 2020. The number of births fell from 305,832 in 2019 to 294,369 in 2020. Then in 2021, strong employment and vast amounts of stimulus money, along with high household savings due to lockdowns, gave couples better financial means to have a baby. This led to a rebound in births.

However, the re-opening of the global economy in 2022 led to soaring inflation. By the start of 2023, the Australian consumer price index (CPI) had risen to its highest level since 1990 at 7.8 percent per annum. By that stage, the Reserve Bank had already commenced an aggressive rate-hiking strategy to fight inflation and had raised the cash rate every month between May and December 2022.

Five more rate hikes during 2023 put further pressure on couples with mortgages and put the brakes on family formation. “This combination of the pandemic and rapid economic changes explains the spike and subsequent sharp decline in birth rates we have observed over the past four years,” Mr Rawnsley said.

The impact of high costs of living on couples’ decision to have a baby is highlighted in births data for the capital cities. KPMG estimates there were 60,860 births in Sydney in 2023, down 8.6 percent from 2019. There were 56,270 births in Melbourne, down 7.3 percent. In Perth, there were 25,020 births, down 6 percent, while in Brisbane there were 30,250 births, down 4.3 percent. Canberra was the only capital city where there was no fall in the number of births in 2023 compared to 2019.

“CPI growth in Canberra has been slightly subdued compared to that in other major cities, and the economic outlook has remained strong,” Mr Rawnsley said. “This means families have not been hurting as much as those in other capital cities, and in turn, we’ve seen a stabilisation of births in the ACT.”

Peloton Backpedals In Right Direction

Fitness company says it will outsource its manufacturing as it steers toward more sustainable growth.

Continued stagflation and cost of living pressures are causing couples to think twice about starting a family, new data has revealed, with long term impacts expected