Shein’s Bargain-App Formula Crumbles Under Trump

The meteoric popularity among American shoppers of China-founded app Shein was greatly helped by duty-free shipping of its ultra-cheap fashion. After President Trump closed that option for Chinese goods, its clothes will now bear the full impact of his new tariffs.

The U.S. tariffs imposed on Wednesday and China’s retaliation throw a wet blanket over all goods trade between the two countries. For Shein, the additional impact of Trump’s move to end the so-called de mini m is exemption for China means a double hit and perhaps the most pivotal challenge for the fashion giant, whose links to China have long landed it at the center of U.S.-China tensions.

The fashion giant had already shifted its plans for an initial public offering from New York to London, where it had hoped to list by June. But Trump’s new tariffs on China and elimination of duty-free exemption for China on goods valued at $800 or less effective May 2 makes its prospects of going public at all increasingly dim.

The nimble supply chain that Shein prides itself on now faces enormous pressure to keep costs low.

“Shein will probably have to reinvent the wheel,” said Vinci Zhang , an analyst at research and analytics firm M Science. “It’s almost certain they will raise the price, otherwise they won’t survive.”

Shein didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Because Trump only ended the de minimis option for China, Shein could still ship wares to the U.S. tariff-free from other countries. Shein had encouraged some suppliers to move their factories to Vietnam, but Trump’s announcement last week of 46% tariffs on goods from Vietnam has undermined such efforts. On Wednesday, Trump authorized a 90-day delay on most tariffs while increasing tariffs on China.

Cathy Lin , who runs a Guangzhou-based contract manufacturer that supplies Shein and its Chinese rival Temu, has put on hold her plan to set up a factory in Vietnam. “Moving there might not be a once-and-for-all solution,” she said. Lin said she has found two partners in Macau and Vietnam who can temporarily help ship parcels to the U.S.

Trump first tried to end the duty-free exemption for China in February, but had to delay the crackdown to let the Commerce Department set up a system to process inspections and levies on the shipments. Shein, now based in Singapore, has argued that the de minimis exemption isn’t critical to its success. Nevertheless, during the two-month reprieve, Shein has scrambled to prepare.

Shein, whose clothing, on average, costs 20% to 35% less than fast-fashion rivals such as Zara and H&M , has raised prices on some items in the past two months. Eight sellers on Shein and Temu, which also increased some prices, said orders from the U.S. have fallen by 20% to 50% in March compared with January.

After Trump’s latest tariff announcement, Brian Luo , who runs a U.S. delivery company that helps companies such as Shein and Temu get parcels to U.S. customers, said the delivery orders he received for Monday plunged to 1,600 from a daily average of 4,000.

“Once the tariffs are added, people might shift back to Amazon , especially because their delivery speed is faster,” Luo said.

Under the new U.S. tariffs, apparel imported from China could face total levies close to 150%, according to Sheng Lu, professor of fashion and apparel studies at the University of Delaware.

Shein has no customers in China, though it subcontracts with thousands of factories there to power its enormous selection of cheap apparel and respond to fleeting consumer tastes. The company has been diversifying its supply chain in the past few years and now also manufactures in Brazil and Turkey, closer to its consumers in North America and Europe.

In recent months, Shein has been in talks with manufacturers in the U.S. to produce some of its clothing there, people familiar with the matter said. More than one-third of Temu’s U.S. orders are now fulfilled by sellers with inventory in the U.S.

In a rare public comment, commerce officials in Guangzhou, where many Shein suppliers are based, told a Communist Party-controlled newspaper that Shein was increasing investments in China and denied that its suppliers are moving out of China.

Nonetheless, Goldman Sachs analysts on Monday lowered forecasts for Temu’s gross sales by as much as a third to a range of $63 billion to $84 billion.

Temu, owned by Chinese e-commerce company PDD Holdings , didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Last year, companies sent small packages worth $46 billion to the U.S. from China under the de minimis exception, representing 11% of U.S. imports from China, Nomura economists estimated.

While the U.S. is one of its biggest markets, Shein sells to more than 150 countries.

In a chat group on WeChat with more than 200 merchants who sell to American consumers on Shein or Temu, vendors raced to come up with contingency plans. “If I can’t sell to the U.S., that’s OK. There are still other good markets,” said Wang Xianwei , a kitchen-utensil seller in China.

But Shein has run into regulatory and political issues around the world. The European Union is also looking to close its own version of the de minimis provision, and some countries have already ended similar loopholes.

Shein’s revenue grew 19% to around $38 billion in 2024, below the increases of 40% or more that the company had seen in the past few years, people familiar with the retailer said.

Since its New York listing plans collapsed, Shein has strengthened its focus on compliance to meet political and regulatory challenges. Its London IPO application has been awaiting approval from Chinese and British regulators since last June.

“Trump’s tariffs and other policies are closing the window for the IPO,” said a person close to Beijing’s thinking.

For decades, the world’s computing power has quietly expanded at an astonishing pace.

From the first transistor developed at Bell Labs in 1947 to modern processors containing billions and even trillions of transistors, each generation of technology has been faster, smaller and more powerful than the last.

But according to quantum physicist and technology entrepreneur David Reilly, that era of effortless progress is beginning to slow.

Reilly, CEO of Sydney-based Emergence Quantum and Professor of Physics at the University of Sydney, says the computing infrastructure underpinning modern economies is approaching fundamental physical limits.

And that could have enormous implications for finance, artificial intelligence and global investment.

Speaking at an industry event organised by Kanebridge International, Reilly said many critical parts of modern society depend on computing and the infrastructure used to process information.

The slowdown behind the tech boom

For years, the technology industry relied on a steady improvement known as Moore’s Law, where the number of transistors on a chip doubled roughly every two years.

More transistors meant more computing power, allowing faster software, smarter devices and ever-larger data systems.

Today, however, those gains are slowing.

“It feels to me very innate that I’m going to just find that next year there’s going to be another breakthrough,” Reilly said.

“But if you look at the data…there’s a slowing down, a roll off in performance that started some 10, 20 years ago.”

Rather than making chips dramatically faster, manufacturers are now largely increasing computing capacity by packing more transistors onto each processor.

The approach works, but it comes with growing complexity, higher costs and increasing energy demands.

The brute-force race for AI

That challenge is already visible in the massive data centres being built to support artificial intelligence.

In the race to dominate AI, companies are constructing vast computing facilities that consume huge amounts of electricity and water. Reilly described this expansion as a “brute force” approach driven by the global competition to develop advanced AI systems.

Yet the demand for computing power continues to accelerate.

Artificial intelligence, advanced robotics, healthcare research, pharmaceuticals and cybersecurity all require far more processing capacity than today’s systems can easily deliver.

The question now facing the technology sector is whether traditional computing can keep up.

Enter quantum computing

That is where quantum computing enters the conversation.

Unlike conventional computers, which process information using binary switches that represent ones and zeros, quantum computers exploit the unusual behaviour of particles at the atomic scale.

Reilly describes them as a fundamentally different type of machine.

“So a quantum computer is a wave computer,” he said.

Instead of processing information through simple on-off switches, quantum systems can use wave-like properties of particles to process many possible outcomes simultaneously.

Those waves can interact in complex ways, reinforcing correct solutions while cancelling out incorrect ones. In theory, this allows quantum systems to tackle certain types of problems dramatically faster than classical computers.

What it could mean for finance

The concept may sound abstract, but its potential applications are significant.

Quantum computers are expected to transform areas such as materials science, chemical modelling and pharmaceutical development.

They could also help solve complex optimisation problems in logistics, finance and risk management.

For financial institutions in particular, the technology could offer new tools for detecting fraud, analysing market behaviour and optimising portfolios.

But the shift will not happen overnight.

“One message to take away is that quantum is not going to suddenly solve all of your problems,” Reilly said.

Instead, he said quantum systems will likely complement existing computing technologies as part of a broader and more diverse computing ecosystem.

Why data centres may soon “go cold”

One key change already emerging is how computing systems are physically designed.

Many next-generation technologies, including quantum processors, operate far more efficiently at extremely low temperatures. As a result, future data centres may rely heavily on cryogenic cooling systems to manage heat and energy consumption.

Reilly believes that the shift will gradually reshape the computing industry.

“Over the next five years, you’re going to see data centres go cold,” he said.

“And as that happens, they almost drag with them new compute paradigms.”

Emergence Quantum, the company he co-founded, is focused on developing technologies to support that transition, including cryogenic electronics and integrated hardware platforms designed for quantum computing and energy-efficient systems.

A new technological era

For investors and businesses, the technology remains in its early stages. But the scale of global interest is growing rapidly.

Governments, research institutions and technology companies are investing heavily in quantum research, betting it could become a foundational technology for the next generation of computing.

For Reilly, the moment feels similar to earlier technological turning points.

In the 19th century, new discoveries in thermodynamics helped drive the development of steam engines and the Industrial Revolution. In the 20th century, advances in electromagnetism led to radio, television and eventually the internet.

Quantum physics, he suggests, could represent the next chapter in that story.

“Today we have, as a society, in our hands new physics that we’re just beginning to figure out what to do with,” Reilly said.

“But I think it’s an exciting time to be alive and watch what happens over the coming decades.”