Sweden’s Central Bank Cuts Key Rate and Sees Two or Three More Cuts This Year

Sweden’s central bank cut its key interest rate for the second time this year and indicated it is likely to lower borrowing costs again as a faltering economy threatens to push inflation further below its target.

The Riksbank cut its key rate to 3.5% from 3.75%, in line with a poll of economists conducted by The Wall Street Journal ahead of the decision.

“If the inflation outlook remains the same, the policy rate can be cut two or three more times this year, which is somewhat faster than the Executive Board assessed in June,” the Riksbank said.

At its last meeting in June, the central bank suggested it could cut the policy rate two or three times during the second half of the year as long as the outlook for inflation holds.

After peaking at over 10% at the end of 2022, the pace of inflation in Sweden has slowed sharply, with the bank’s target measure dropping below the 2% target in both June and July. At the same time, the economy contracted by 0.8% in the three months through June, while household consumption remains weak and the labor market continues to deteriorate.

In its statement Tuesday, the Riksbank said inflation is now stabilising close to the target and the risk of inflation becoming too high again has declined significantly. At the same time, it said wage increases are moderate, while the growth outlook in Sweden and abroad is somewhat weaker than expected.

“The overall picture of the economy is worrisome and warrants more easing,” says Bartosz Sawicki, market analyst at Conotoxia. “Consumption remains in the doldrums, and GDP growth is set to account for about 0.5% year-on-year in 2024.”

Policymakers have been especially concerned about lowering borrowing costs too quickly over concerns that it would weaken the Swedish currency further and contribute to a bounce in inflation, but those risks are also dissipating as interest rates have declined abroad, easing depreciatory pressure on the krona.

Conotoxia expects the krona will continue to recover in the remainder of the year on the back of improving global risk sentiment. “Hefty market pricing of looming rate cuts should limit the downside for the currency,” Sawicki says.

The European Central Bank began its easing cycle in June, and although it took a wait-and-see approach at its most recent meeting, it kept the door open for further rate cuts this year.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has so far held off making its first move and last month held interest rates steady in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% for an eighth consecutive meeting.

However, weaker-than-forecast U.S. non farm payroll data earlier this month sparked recession concerns and prompted markets to ramp up bets for interest rate cuts. These rate cut expectations have since been trimmed following stronger data, but a September cut is largely expected by markets and Fed Chair Jerome Powell ’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday will be closely watched for clues.

Superannuation is the first thought when it comes to self-funding retirement. Yet it is hardly the only option for doing so.

Just as we have a choice in how and where we work to earn a living, many people also have a choice in how to fund their retirement.

It is possible and sometimes preferable to leave your superannuation untouched, allowing it to continue growing. Some or all of your income can come from alternative sources instead.

Here are some alternatives you can consider.

1. Downsize your home

For many who own their own homes, the equity accrued over decades can eclipse the funds in superannuation. However, it’s theoretical money only until it is unlocked.

Selling up the family home and downsizing – or rightsizing – for retirement allows you to pocket those gains tax-free and simultaneously relocate to a more suitable home with lower upkeep costs.

Up to $300,000 from the proceeds can be contributed by a downsizer to boost your super, and the remainder can be used to fund living expenses or actively invested.

Remember that while the sale proceeds of your home are tax-free, any future profits or interest earned from that money will be taxable.

2. Part-time work

Semi-retirement allows you to gradually step into retirement. You continue earning income and super while working part-time, keeping a foot in the workforce while testing the waters of your new found free time.

Doing so also offers scope to move into different roles, such as passing on your skills to future generations by teaching/training others in your field of expertise, or taking employment in a new area that interests you and is closer to home.

3. Self-employment

Retirement from a full-time position presents a good opportunity to pursue self-employment. With more time and fewer commitments on your hands, you have greater scope to turn your hobby into a business or leverage your professional skills and reputation as an external consultant.

Also, for the self-employed and those with a family business, director’s loan repayments from the company are typically tax-free, offering a potentially lucrative source of

income and a means of extracting previous investments into the business without selling your ownership stake.

4. Investments

Rental property income (from residential or commercial properties) can supplement or even provide a generous source of income. The same applies to dividends from shares.

These are likely to be more profitable if you own them well before retirement.

Income that is surplus to your everyday needs can be reinvested using tax-effective strategies to grow your future returns.

5. Family trust

A family trust could be used to house investments for yourself and other relatives, building intergenerational wealth.

Trusts allow funds to be allocated to beneficiaries to manage marginal tax rates and stretch the money further, you have control over how income is split between different family members and have flexibility for changing circumstances.

6. Selling collectables

You may not realise the value of items you have collected over the years, such as wine, artwork, jewellery, vintage cars, and antiques.

Rather than have them collect dust or pay to store them, they could be sold to fund your living costs or new investments.

Where possible, avoid selling growth assets in a depressed market – wait until you can extract maximum value.

7. Obtaining a part-pension

Part-pensions are not only possible but valuable in making your superannuation stretch further. They still entitle you to a concession card with benefits in healthcare, transport, and more.

Take these savings even further by requesting pensioner discounts with other companies, on everything from utilities to travel and insurance to eating out.

Also, don’t overestimate the value of your assets as part of the means test. It’s a common mistake that can wrongly deny you a full or part-pension.

Plan ahead

However, you ultimately fund your retirement, planning is crucial. Advice would hopefully pay for itself.

Understand your spending and how those habits will change before and during retirement, then look to investments that offer the best fit.

Consider a mixture of strategies to diversify your risk, manage your tax liabilities and ensure ongoing income.

Above all, timing is key. The further ahead you plan, the more time you have to embrace additional opportunities and do things at the right time to maximise their value. You’ve worked hard and now is your chance to enjoy the fruits of your labour!

Helen Baker is a licensed Australian financial adviser and author of the new book, Money For Life: How to build financial security from firm foundations (Major Street Publishing $32.99). Find out more at www.onyourowntwofeet.com.au