Tariffs Are on the Table for U.S. Importers, Whatever the Election Outcome
U.S. companies are pulling away from China as Democrats and Republicans increasingly impose duties on Beijing
U.S. companies are pulling away from China as Democrats and Republicans increasingly impose duties on Beijing
Until a few years ago, Chinese factories supplied the world with Sharpie retractable pens and Oster blenders.
No more.
Consumer giant Newell Brands now makes those products, and more, at its own plants in the U.S. and Mexico. Many of its other products are made in factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand.
Chris Peterson , Newell’s chief executive, said the company’s shift reduces its dependence on China at a time when both the Democratic and Republican parties “are getting more protectionist in terms of trade policy.”
Tariffs are becoming an entrenched tool tying together geopolitics and trade , and they are playing a bigger role in long-term manufacturing and sourcing decisions. Nowhere are they hitting harder than in China, where importers and exporters are navigating an increasingly complicated regime of levies on goods ranging from semiconductors to mattresses.
“Tariffs have always existed and they’ve always been regarded as a cost of doing business,” said Simon Geale, executive vice president of procurement at supply-chain consulting firm Proxima. “But they’ve been getting much more teeth in the last five or six years.”
The new era of tariffs kicked off under the Trump administration with duties on imports from a swath of countries and a focus on Chinese products ranging from truck chassis to consumer goods.
The Biden administration kept most of the tariffs in place, and then added further duties on Chinese steel, semiconductors and electric vehicles, citing national security concerns and an industrial policy aimed at reviving American manufacturing .
The two candidates in this year’s presidential election look set to continue the trend, as trade, manufacturing and the tools to tie them together take a prominent role in the campaign.
Former president Donald Trump , the Republican nominee, has said he would roll out new tariffs with a potential 10% across-the-board duty on imported goods and a 60% tariff on goods from China.
Vice President Kamala Harris , the Democratic nominee, so far hasn’t indicated a desire to deviate much from President Biden’s trade policies.
Before becoming vice president, Harris diverged from Biden on Trump’s revised North American Free Trade Agreement, known as the United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement. As a senator, Harris joined some Democratic lawmakers, saying it didn’t do enough to address climate change, suggesting Harris may have more of a focus on social justice issues when considering trade pacts.
Harris has been in lockstep with the president in the Biden administration.
At an electronics factory in Wisconsin last summer, Harris said she and Biden want to bring manufacturing jobs back to America. At a campaign event in North Carolina on July 18, she said Trump’s proposed universal 10% tariff “would increase the cost of everyday expenses for families.” She didn’t criticise current tariffs on Chinese goods .
Both Trump and Harris opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the expansive multination trade deal that was designed to expand alternatives to trading with China. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement immediately on taking office in 2017.
The trade policies pose a conundrum for companies. Do they continue sourcing from China and risk the potential impact of escalating tariffs? Or do they look outside China, where costs are higher, but duties and other geopolitical risks are lower?
Trump’s threat of universal tariffs has even spooked supporters. Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk , who has endorsed Trump, said he would delay a decision on a new plant in Mexico until after the election because “it doesn’t make sense” if Trump wins and puts “heavy tariffs” on vehicles produced there.
Shifting supply chains to other countries is complex. Companies must find new suppliers of raw materials and finished goods. Suppliers and sub-suppliers must be vetted to make sure they don’t violate increasingly stringent U.S. rules on issues such as forced labor.
Anne van de Heetkamp , a vice president of product management at supply chain and logistics technology company Descartes , said when trade tensions started ratcheting up five years ago companies weren’t in a hurry to shift supply chains. Now that the duties appear more permanent, Descartes’s customers are mapping out new global supply networks.
Surging exports out of Southeast Asia, India and Mexico suggest Newell isn’t alone in its desire to reduce reliance on China. The shifts are fuelling new logistics investments in factories, warehousing and transportation operations around the world.
DHL Express U.S., a parcel unit of German logistics giant Deutsche Post , added a new direct flight between Vietnam and the U.S. in 2022 to cater to rising exports that used to reach the U.S. via Hong Kong. CEO Greg Hewitt said the unit is also looking at expanding its networks along the U.S. -Mexico border to serve surging demand there.
Hewitt cautioned that China remains the world’s top supplier of manufactured goods and will likely hold that position because of its streamlined supply chains and low costs for raw materials and labour.
Retail industry trade groups and some executives warn some items can’t be produced anywhere else in the world and that escalating tariffs will simply raise consumer prices and fuel inflation. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that every percentage point increase in the overall U.S. tariff rate would increase core consumer prices by just over 0.1%.
“The problem is the best place to make shoes is China,” said Ronnie Robinson, chief supply chain officer at Designer Brands , parent company of footwear retailer DSW.
Robinson said for every dollar the government adds in tariffs, consumers pay an extra $2 to $4 at the checkout. “The reality is that you and I are paying for the tariffs as part of the ticket price when you go into the store and buy,” he said.
Robinson said Designer Brands sources about 70% of its footwear from China, down from 90% several years ago. He said the company aims to reduce its reliance further to about 50%, but China will remain the company’s largest single source of shoes.
Peterson said just 15% of Newell’s goods rely on products made in China today, down from more than 30% several years ago. He expects that by the end of next year the share will fall below 10%.
He said that when the company is searching for new Chinese suppliers one of its first questions is whether they have capacity or plan to add capacity outside the country.
“If a supplier doesn’t have manufacturing capability outside of China, we will not select them as a vendor for us,” he said.
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Some designer handbags like the Hermès Kelly have implied power. But can a purse alone really get you a restaurant table—or even a job?
LIKE MARVEL VILLAINS, most fashion writers have origin stories. Mine began with a navy nylon Prada purse, salvaged from a Boston thrift store when I was a teen in the 1990s. Scuffed with black streaks and sagging, it was terribly beat-up. But I saw it as a golden ticket to a future, chicer self. No longer a screechy suburban theatre kid, I would revamp myself as sophisticated, arch, even aloof. The bag, I reasoned, would lead the way.
That fall, I slung it against my shoulder like a shotgun and marched into school, where a girl far more interesting than I was called out, “Hey, cool bag.” After feigning apathy —“I don’t know, you could use a Sharpie on a lunch bag and it would look the same”—we became friends. She introduced me to a former classmate who worked at a magazine. That woman helped me get an internship, which led to a job.
Twenty years later, I still wonder how big of a role that Prada purse played in my future—and whether designer bags can function as a silent partner in our success. Branded luxury bags took off in 1957, when Grace Kelly posed with an Hermès bag in Life magazine. (Hermès renamed that bag “the Kelly” in 1973.) The term “status bag” was popularised in 1990 by Gaile Robinson in the Los Angeles Times, describing any purse that projects social or economic power. Not surprisingly, these accessories are costly. Kelly bags cost over $10,000; ditto Chanel’s 11.22 handbag. Some bags by Louis Vuitton and Dior command similar price points. The cost isn’t repelling customers—both brands reported revenue surges in 2023. But isn’t there something dusty about the idea that a branded bag carries meaning along with your phone and wallet? How much status can a status bag deliver in 2024?
Quite a lot, said Daniel Langer, a business professor at Pepperdine University and the CEO of Équité, a Swiss luxury consulting firm. Beginning in 2007, Langer showed a series of photo portraits to hundreds of people across Europe, Asia and the U.S., then asked them 60 questions. Those pictured carrying a luxury handbag were seen as “more attractive, more intelligent, more interesting,” he said. The conclusion was “so ridiculous” to Langer that he repeated the studies several times over the next decade and a half. The results were always the same: “Purchasing a ‘status bag’ will prepare you to be more successful in your social actions. That is the data.”
Intrigued, I gathered various Very Important Purses—I borrowed some from friends, and others from brands—to see if they could elevate my station with the same unspoken oomph as a “Pride and Prejudice” suitor.
First, I took Alaïa’s Le Teckel bag—a narrow purse resembling an elegant flute case and carried by actress Margot Robbie—to New York’s Carlyle Hotel on a Saturday night. The line for the famous Bemelmans Bar stretched to the fire exit. “Can I get a table right away?” I asked the host, holding out my bag like a passport before an international flight. “It’s very busy,” he said in hushed tones. “But come sit. A table should open soon.” I sank into one of the Carlyle’s lush red sofas and sipped a martini while waiting—a much nicer way to kill 30 minutes than slumped against a lobby wall.
Wondering if this was a one-time thing, I called up Desta, the mononymous “culture director” (read: gatekeeper) who has worked for Manhattan celebrity hide-outs like Chapel Bar and Boom, the Standard Hotel bar that hosts the Met Gala’s official after party. “Sure, we pay attention to bags,” he said. “Not too long ago at Veronika,” the Park Avenue restaurant where Desta also steered the social ship, “we had one table left. A woman had a Saint Laurent bag from the Hedi Era,” he said, referencing Hedi Slimane , the brand’s revered designer from 2012 to 2016. “I said, ‘Give her the table. She appreciates style. She’ll appreciate this place.’”
Some say a status bag can open professional doors, too. Cleo Capital founder Sarah Kunst, who lives between San Francisco and London, notes that in private-equity circles, these accessories can act as a quick head-nod in introductory situations. Kunst says that especially as a Black woman, she found a designer bag to be “almost like armour” at the beginning of her career. “You put it on, and if you’re walking into a work event or a happy hour where you need to network, it can help you fit in immediately.” She cites Chanel flap bags made from the brand’s signature quilted leather and stamped with a double-C logo as an industry favourite. “People love to talk about them. They’ll say, ‘Ohhh, I love your bag,’ in a low voice.” They talk to you, said Kunst, “like you’re a tiger.”
For high-stakes jobs that rely on commissions—sports agents or sales reps, for instance—a fancy handbag can help establish credibility. “It says, ‘I’m succeeding at my job,’” said Mary Bonnet, vice president of the Oppenheim Group, the California real-estate firm at the centre of Netflix reality show “Selling Sunset.” As a new real-estate agent in her 20s, Bonnet brought a fake designer bag to a meeting. To her horror, a potential buyer had the real thing. “I work in an industry where trust is important, and there I was being inauthentic. That was a real lesson.” Now Bonnet rotates several (real) Saint Laurent and Chanel bags, but notes that a super-expensive purse could alienate some clients. “I don’t think I’d walk into [some client homes] with a giant Hermès bag.”
Hermès bags are supposedly the apex predator of purses. But I didn’t feel invincible when I strapped a Kelly bag around my chest like a pebbled-leather ammo belt. The dun-brown purse cost $11,800, a sum that prompted my boyfriend to ask if I needed a bodyguard. Shaking with “is this insured?” anxiety, I walked into a showing for an $8.5 million apartment steps from Central Park. I made it through the door but was soon stopped by a gruff real-estate agent asking if I had an appointment. No, but I had an Hermès bag? Alas, it wasn’t enough. The gleaming black door closed in my face.
“What went wrong?” I asked Dafna Goor, a London Business School professor who studies the psychology behind luxury purchases. “You felt nervous,” she replied. “That always makes others uncomfortable, especially in a high stakes situation,” like an open house with jittery agents. Goor said recognisable bags from Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior are also often faked, which can lead to suspicion if not paired with “other signals of wealth.”
“You can’t just treat a bag as a backstage pass,” said Jess Graves, who runs the shopping Substack the Love List. Graves says bags are more of a secret code shared between potential connections. “I’ve been in line for coffee and a woman will see my Margaux [from the Row] and go, ‘Oh, I know that bag.’ Then we’ll chat.” Graves moved from Atlanta to Manhattan in 2023, and says she’s made some new, local friends thanks to these “bag chats.”
I had my own bag chat that night, when I brought Khaite’s Olivia—a slim crescent of shiny maroon leather—to a house party thrown by a rock star I’d never met. In fact I knew hardly any guests, but as I stood in the kitchen, a woman in vintage Chanel pointed to my bag and asked, “How did you get that colour? It’s sold out!” Before I could tell her my name, she told me the make and model of my purse. Then she laughed about her ex-boss, a tech billionaire, and encouraged me to buy some cryptocurrency. The token I picked surged nearly 30% in about a week. Now I was onto something—a status bag that might bring not just status, but an actual market return.
Thanks to their prominence on social media, certain bags have gained favour among Gen Zers. “TikTok and Instagram make some luxury items even more visible and more desirable to young people,” said Goor. I experienced this firsthand on a stormy Saturday morning, when a girl in a college hoodie pointed at my Miu Miu Wander bag as I puddle-hopped through downtown New York. The piglet-pink purse is a TikTok favourite seen on young stars like Sydney Sweeney and Hailey Bieber. “Your bag is everything!” yelled the girl from the crosswalk. “Thanks, can I have your umbrella?” I shouted back. She laughed and left. My Wander had made a splash—but it couldn’t keep me dry. I ran to the subway, soaked. The bag looked even better wet.
Everyone loves an ingénue—fashion insiders included. Perhaps that’s why at Paris Fashion Week in September, newer handbags from Bottega Veneta and Loewe jostled for space and street-style flashbulbs.
“These bags, especially ones by independent labels like Khaite, are quieter signals of cultural access,” explained Goor. “Everyone knows what an Hermès Kelly bag is. So now there need to be new signals” beyond traditional status bags to convey power.
Sasha Bikoff Cooper, a Manhattan interior designer, says there’s a less cynical explanation for why these bags have captured celebrity fans—and more important, paying customers. “They’re fresh and also beautiful,” she said. “Hermès is always classic. It’s like a first love. But you want newness, too.”
The Wall Street Journal is not compensated by retailers listed in its articles as outlets for products. Listed retailers frequently are not the sole retail outlets.
This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan
Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.