The Casual Footwear Boom Is Over. It’s Bad News for Adidas.

The boom in casual footware ushered in by the pandemic has ended, a potential problem for companies such as Adidas that benefited from the shift to less formal clothing, Bank of America says.

The casual footwear business has been on the ropes since mid-2023 as people began returning to office.

Analyst Thierry Cota wrote that while most downcycles have lasted one to two years over the past two decades or so, the current one is different.

It “shows no sign of abating” and there is “no turning point in sight,” he said.

Adidas and Nike alone account for almost 60% of revenue in the casual footwear industry, Cota estimated, so the sector’s slower growth could be especially painful for them as opposed to brands that have a stronger performance-shoe segment. Adidas may just have it worse than Nike.

Cota downgraded Adidas stock to Underperform from Buy on Tuesday and slashed his target for the stock price to €160 (about $187) from €213. He doesn’t have a rating for Nike stock.

Shares of Adidas listed on the German stock exchange fell 4.5% Tuesday to €162.25. Nike stock was down 1.2%.

Adidas didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Cota sees trouble for Adidas both in the short and long term.

Adidas’ lifestyle segment, which includes the Gazelles and Sambas brands, has been one of the company’s fastest-growing business, but there are signs growth is waning.

Lifestyle sales increased at a 10% annual pace in Adidas’ third quarter, down from 13% in the second quarter.

The analyst now predicts Adidas’ organic sales will grow by a 5% annual rate starting in 2027, down from his prior forecast of 7.5%.

The slower revenue growth will likewise weigh on profitability, Cota said, predicting that margins on earnings before interest and taxes will decline back toward the company’s long-term average after several quarters of outperforming. That could result in a cut to earnings per share.

Adidas stock had a rough 2025. Shares shed 33% in the past 12 months, weighed down by investor concerns over how tariffs, slowing demand, and increased competition would affect revenue growth.

Nike stock fell 9% throughout the period, reflecting both the company’s struggles with demand and optimism over a turnaround plan CEO Elliott Hill rolled out in late 2024.

Investors’ confidence has faded following Nike’s December earnings report, which suggested that a sustained recovery is still several quarters away. Just how many remains anyone’s guess.

But if Adidas’ challenges continue, as Cota believes they will, it could open up some space for Nike to claw back any market share it lost to its rival.

Investors should keep in mind, however, that the field has grown increasingly crowded in the past five years. Upstarts such as On Holding and Hoka also present a formidable challenge to the sector’s legacy brands.

Shares of On and Deckers Outdoor , Hoka’s parent company, fell 11% and 48%, respectively, in 2025, but analysts are upbeat about both companies’ fundamentals as the new year begins.

The battle of the sneakers is just getting started.

The S&P 500 just completed one of its best three-year runs ever, rising around 80% from the start of 2023 through New Year’s Eve. Wall Street thinks the party is just getting started.

Few expect the good times to keep rolling indefinitely, but you would be hard-pressed to find a major bank predicting anything except more gains in 2026.

Yet worries abound about the stretched valuations of artificial-intelligence companies, the path of interest rates and the outlook in Washington, D.C.

So we asked five investors where they’re putting their money:

Alex Chaloff

Count Alex Chaloff among the investors concerned about a reckoning with the huge gains in AI stocks.

The chief investment officer at Bernstein Private Wealth Management fielded questions from clients on the topic all last year.

After several years of huge returns, he is advocating a more surgical approach to picking stocks.

“On one hand, they’re thrilled with the returns. On the other, they’re scared of what the next chapter is, because I’ve been telling them: It’s 1990-something,” Chaloff said, referring to the final years of the dot-com bubble.

“Our view is that we still have room to run, but there will be an end to this.”

Chaloff isn’t selling out of AI, but he is happy to help concerned clients seeking protection against declines in the whole index or a handful of individual big tech stocks.

One tool he is using is buffered exchange-traded funds, which seek to smooth out market swings. Those offer “some upside exposure with either defined or variable protection, and a great level of visibility, transparency and liquidity,” he said.

Bernstein is also working on an “AI loser” list, screening specifically for companies with high debt loads and low free-cash flow—those that have gotten AI hype, but might lack the fundamentals to survive an arms race.

He also holds an upbeat outlook for U.S. growth, especially if the Supreme Court ends up striking down President Trump’s tariffs: “I think that possibility is being overlooked a bit. It could reduce inflationary pressures, allow more rate cuts and accelerate the economy.”

Saira Malik

Tech bulls point out a key difference between now and the dot-com bubble: Today’s most-valuable companies, such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Alphabet, are some of the most profitable in history. And those profits are growing fast.

Saira Malik , who oversees $1.4 trillion as chief investment officer at Nuveen, thinks there is more upside ahead to the technology and AI trade, and she plans to add to some of her favorite holdings in 2026. It all comes down to profits.

The Magnificent Seven tech companies plus chip maker Broadcom —a group Malik is now referring to as the “Great Eight”—are forecast to grow earnings by 24% this year, well over double the forecast for the S&P 500 as a whole.

“We think the earnings growth and future growth justifies the premium valuations in tech, which will continue to dominate and lead the S&P 500 higher,” Malik said.

Tech stocks’ years long dominant run has made a handful of the biggest companies a larger share of the S&P 500 index than ever, making some investors fret over concentration risk. Malik shrugs those concerns off.

“I don’t necessarily say the market has to broaden out for it to be healthy. We’ve been living in this world of tech dominance for basically a decade straight…as long as the earnings power is there, the stocks will follow,” she said.

Outside of stocks, Nuveen expects municipal bonds and private equity both to bounce back in 2026.

Heavy supply of new muni bonds led to them lagging behind taxable bonds last year, a trend that Malik expects to reverse in a “catch-up trade.” Private equity, meanwhile, stands to benefit from lower interest rates and a pickup in deal activity, she has told clients.

Jack Ablin

Concentration risk isn’t just a stock-market issue, says Jack Ablin , chief investment strategist at Cresset Capital. He worries about the growing share of consumer spending coming from wealthy individuals, which he said puts the economy at risk as well.

“We have a narrowing prosperity on both Wall Street and Main Street, and it probably does create a vulnerability. A minority of the participants are accounting for most of the results,” Ablin said.

Stock owners are feeling a wealth effect that leads to freer spending. That could change quickly during a market downturn, however, leading to a scenario where a drop in the stock market could push the economy into a recession, Ablin said.

Cresset has leaned into value stocks and small-caps recently, expecting that both will benefit from interest-rate cuts and lower financing costs this year.

When it comes to AI, Ablin isn’t ready to pick winners and losers.

“I don’t have a crystal ball. So we buy everything for now, and the winners will ultimately pay for the losers.

Larry Adam

Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam thinks stocks will have a more modest 2026, projecting around a 4% gain for the S&P 500.

Equity valuations will struggle to move higher than they currently are, meaning those gains will need to come from earnings growth, he said.

“I think the market is vulnerable to some disappointment after going so long with remarkably low volatility,” he said.

Raymond James is adding to bets on the industrials and consumer discretionary sectors this year. Industrials look like an indirect AI play, since they act as suppliers to utility companies and others helping build out AI infrastructure.

Consumer discretionary stands to benefit from a pickup in consumer spending, Adam reckons, with major tax refunds from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act set to hit pockets this spring.

Rob Arnott

Is there an AI bubble? Rob Arnott says yes, though the Research Affiliates founder and chairman cautions that it isn’t easy to profit on that idea.

“Shorting a bubble is a very fast way to go bankrupt. Bubbles can last longer and go further that you can imagine,” he said.

Like many on Wall Street, Arnott is convinced that AI is the “real deal” and a technological revolution is coming.

But he also warned that technological revolutions take time to play out—and said it is far too early to know which companies will emerge from the pack. During the dot-com boom, he said, Lucent and Nokia numbered among the world’s most-valuable companies.

“Dating back to the industrial revolution, every time you see major disruption there are winners and losers. A lot of losers,” he said. “The disrupters get disrupted.”

Arnott is now running a strategy that automatically trims exposure to stocks if their valuations soar quickly. “Just like averaging in is a time-honoured way to build a position in something cheap, averaging out is a great way to reduce exposure to what’s frothy and expensive,” he said.

With the profits taken from trimming exposure to fast-growing names, Arnott is putting money into areas that look cheaper and less loved, such as international and value stocks, to boost diversification.